How to tame a Dragon

The Western world needs to nurture China’s competitor

While Ukraine is defeating Russia on the military front, Western countries are trying to deprive the Kremlin of the resources to wage this war by imposing new sanctions and tightening the existing ones. The Russian Federation, in turn, is looking for loopholes for importing much-needed equipment and technology and exporting raw materials in order to maintain the level of military spending.

These loopholes are provided by small countries in Asia and Latin America or even European and American companies themselves that value money more than reputation.

These small “windows” of opportunity are quite easily closed by secondary sanctions. The United States has adopted this practice a long time ago, and the country is still successfully using it. Naturally, there will be some Marс Rich type of folks, trying to organize some kind of trade through small channels, but this will not change the outcome.

At the same time, there is a more important problem – China. The Celestial Empire does not hide its interest in Russia: at least it declares diplomatic friendship, buys cheaper energy and other raw materials, and introduces yuan for financial operations, helping the “Russian empire” to bypass restrictions. And this problem cannot be solved simply by secondary sanctions. And this problem cannot be solved by secondary sanctions alone.

Ukraine is excluded from the PRC’s sphere of interest. And, frankly speaking, China is not trying to fix the issue. Since 2021, the Ukrainian ambassador to China has not been appointed. Under current circumstances, the official position of the PRC and its leader Xi Jinping is critical for the outcome of our war for Independence.

On the other hand, all the economic power of China and its elites is based on exports to the EU and North America. The PRC is fully aware of this. At the same time, the Chinese have already learned to use their relations with pariah states to exert pressure upon the Western world for political, trade, and economic benefits.

The most striking example is North Korea. China does not openly support the North Korean regime but assists it as long as it provokes South Korea, Japan, and other countries in the Pacific region. China is building the same scheme in relations with Iran and other pariah states. When looking closely at Beijing-Moscow cooperation, it becomes clear that for China, today's Russia is the same instrument of pressure on the West.

Accordingly, any attempts of France, Germany, and other EU countries to help the PRC “return to the true path" are doomed. Xi Jinping, of course, would rather have a sincere conversation with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz or French President Emanuel Macron, but he would change his mind after their appeals.

China's weakest link is its vast markets for Western democracies. And it is imperative to act in this dimension. This is the task of the US and the EU, not Ukraine. In order for the West to put pressure on a weak spot, China must understand that Western countries have an alternative to it. In case the relations with Beijing become too distant, the US and the EU will find a new key trading partner.

It makes no sense to buy cheap oil and gas from Russia if one cannot sell the goods produced with the help of these energy resources in the market. Their loss can really bring down the stability of China's political system. And Xi understands this. Whatever Beijing says publicly, the issue of resetting economic relations with Washington is still its priority.

Currently, India can substitute China. The official announcement about trade reorientation and the transfer of production facilities from China would be enough to make China fully reconsider its policy toward the US and the EU, and its position on Russia's war in Ukraine.

Besides, India is a more cooperative partner for the Western world. New Delhi is far more democratic, and it lacks the centralized authoritarianism of Beijing. Hence, the US and the EU have the opportunity to arrange an internal economic competition between Indian states for investment.

What Ukraine needs to do now is to shift from its attempts to influence China and try to consult Washington, Brussels, and London on the project of "taming the Chinese dragon" and reorienting their cooperation to India.