How Will Ukrainian Refugees Vote in the Post-War Elections?
More than a thousand additional polling stations will need to be opened in Europe and other countries.
More than six million Ukrainians have been living in the EU, Canada, or the United States for two years, and almost a million more have settled in Russia and Belarus. As soon as the war ends and the election process resumes, at least a thousand additional polling stations will need to be opened across Europe to ensure that their voices are not lost. Is the political system ready for such an experiment – and will the elections turn into a technical chaos?
When will the Elections Be Held in Ukraine?
The parliamentary factions signed an informal memorandum: elections should be held six months after the lifting of martial law. This date is not defined in the Constitution, but it sets a political deadline and recognizes that “democracy under sirens” is impossible.
Lawyers are currently discussing whether the presidential and parliamentary campaigns will take place simultaneously; in the end, the balance between the public demand for a quick reset and objective risks – demined roads, secure border areas, restored infrastructure, and, most importantly, the staffing capacity of election commissions – will decide everything. The six-month formula seems to be minimal: voter lists will need to be thoroughly audited, and the law and instructions should be adapted to the challenges of the post-war period.
How Many Ukrainian Voters Are Abroad?
The scale of the task is unprecedented. According to the UNHCR, there are 6.36 million Ukrainians under temporary protection in Europe, of whom 4.3 million have official status within the EU, with a third concentrated in Germany and Poland, the countries where the most polling stations will have to be opened. If children and minors are excluded, the potential electorate abroad will be about four million people-ten times more than those who registered in the previous election. For comparison, in March 2019, only 435,000 citizens were registered in the foreign electoral district, and for the April second round, the CEC had data on 449,000; 101 polling stations in 72 countries accepted votes.
The eastern vector stands in contrast to the EU. The UN and human rights activists estimate that about 1.2 million Ukrainians are currently in Russia, most of whom were forced to leave or received Russian passports; almost 29,000 more have crossed the border with Belarus since the beginning of 2025 alone. These citizens will be deprived of the right to participate in the elections. Ukraine will not be able to open additional polling stations in these countries due to security risks, and the online format in non-democratic jurisdictions cannot be free. Similarly, more than three million Ukrainian voters who remain in the temporarily occupied territories are deprived of access; the campaign to impose Russian citizenship has reached at least 3.5 million people. Voting in the occupied territories cannot be free, so the only option for this category of citizens will be to organize temporary travel to the controlled territories. This will be possible only in case of stable peace and opening of the crossing points.
Why Offline Voting Is a More Likely Option
So the main dilemma is not “where” but “how”. Ukrainian legislation has three theoretical scenarios for voting abroad: remote voting through Diia, voting by mail, and the classic ballot box with paper ballots in the diplomatic mission. Online voting tempts only IT enthusiasts: after large-scale DDoS attacks on state registries and banking systems in 2024-25, any server shutdown will instantly turn the election result into a subject of lawsuits, and public confidence in the results of such elections will be minimal. The postal option has more physical protection, but it requires rewriting campaign schedules, new verification rules, and coordinated work of dozens of postal operators in different jurisdictions. And the main reason is that people do not trust the secrecy of postal voting.
Therefore, the most likely option is the offline format, but in an expanded configuration. To give at least half of the voters abroad the opportunity to vote, the foreign ministry will have to increase the network of polling stations from hundreds to at least a thousand. The logistics are simple only on paper: renting public spaces, coordinating with host governments, protecting ballots and queues that can number tens of thousands of voters every day in Warsaw or Berlin. Two-day voting (Saturday + Sunday) would relieve some of the burden, but would require a constitutional amendment, as the Basic Law currently only knows the “day” of the vote.
Post-war elections are not just about ballots; they are an investment in the loyalty of those who may not return home. Maintaining the political connection will mean that millions of people with European salaries and integration experience will remain political Ukrainians, even if they work in Germany or the Czech Republic.
In 2019, only about 60,000 citizens actually voted outside of Ukraine, a meager 0.2% of the total number of voters. But the next cycle could turn the diaspora into a significant political factor. The only question is whether we will have time to turn the consular fence into a polling place before the elections become a topic of political rather than legal bargaining.
Igor Popov, head of United Ukraine Think Tank, expert on political and security issues