Hybrid Threats Push NATO Toward More Aggressive Deterrence Strategy
NATO is stepping up its rhetoric and preparing to move from passive defense to more proactive action in response to Russia's growing hybrid aggression across Europe.
The Gaze reports on it, referring to Militarnyi, citing the Financial Times.
According to NATO Military Committee Chairman Admiral Giuseppe Cavo Dragone, the alliance is seriously considering changing its approach to countering hybrid threats that include cyberattacks, sabotage, information operations, and airspace violations.
European countries have already experienced a series of similar incidents, escalating the debate within NATO about the need for more active measures.
Some states, primarily on the eastern flank of the alliance, insist that NATO should move from responding to taking preventive and even offensive cyber responses.
Admiral Dragone acknowledged that in the current environment, preventive actions can be considered defensive if they are aimed at preventing damage. At the same time, he stressed that such decisions require a clear legal framework and definition of responsibility, and therefore do not fit well within the NATO policy making process.
As an example of a successful new strategy, he cited Operation Baltic Sentry, which, through constant patrols by ships, aircraft, and maritime drones, was able to prevent a recurrence of attacks on submarine cables in the Baltic Sea.
Recent statements by European military and analytical institutions indicate that the threat from Russia to NATO and neighboring countries may arise much sooner than Western governments predict.
During his visit to Ukraine, Dutch Defense Minister Onno Eichelsheim said that the war could spread to Europe and that Alliance countries must be prepared for airspace violations and other provocations. He estimates that Russia will be able to restore its military capabilities for a new aggression within 18 to 24 months after the end of the war.
At the same time, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) warned that Moscow is rapidly rebuilding its forces and developing new tactics focused on the mass use of drones, precision strikes, and electronic warfare. There are also growing signs of preparations for hybrid attacks in Europe, ranging from espionage to flights of unknown drones over critical infrastructure in Sweden, Norway, the Netherlands, Poland, and Germany.
Against this backdrop, the Baltic states are developing large-scale plans for the evacuation of civilians. The scenarios envisage the displacement of hundreds of thousands of people in the event of military action, sabotage, or cyberattacks.
As The Gaze reported earlier, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said that Russia is actively conducting espionage and cyberattacks against Alliance member states in an attempt to undermine their security and support for Ukraine.