In Case of War in Ukraine Freezing, Russia May Attack Baltic Countries - DGAP Report

Russia poses a threat to NATO countries, and in case of freezing the war in Ukraine, it will attack the eastern members of the Alliance - Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia. The Alliance must strengthen its armed forces to be prepared to deter and, if necessary, engage in direct conflict with Russia. This is the only way to reduce the risk of the next war in Europe.

This is stated in the research of the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP).

"The window for a possible Russian attack will open as soon as Russia gets the impression that an attack, for example, in the Baltics, could be successful..." the research states.

According to analysts, NATO has a maximum of 10 years to strengthen its defense capabilities. Germany, in particular, must make a quantum leap: quickly strengthen the personnel of the Bundeswehr and expand arms production.

"Russia's imperial ambitions make it the biggest and most immediate threat to NATO countries. After the end of intense fighting in Ukraine, Moscow will need six to ten years to rebuild its armed forces. During this period, Germany and NATO must enable their armed forces to deter and, if necessary, fight against Russia," the research states.

Analysts forecast that Russia will rapidly build up its military capability as soon as the war in Ukraine transitions into the so-called "position phase," where direct combat actions become rare. This "freezing" will give Russia the opportunity to accumulate forces, which may later be used to attack the Baltic countries.

"An attack by Russia on NATO territory can no longer be ruled out. This means that the question is no longer whether Germany and NATO need to be prepared for war, but only when," emphasized DGAP analyst Christian Mölling.

The research also emphasizes that despite the openly two-year war waged by the Kremlin in Ukraine, Russia's military potential is still significant. The Russian army suffered the most significant losses in personnel and equipment. However, it only lost about 10-15% of its aircraft and helicopters. Despite the significant losses of the Black Sea Fleet, the Baltic, Pacific, and Northern Fleets remain combat-ready, as well as Russia's strategic missile and cyber forces.