What Specific Military Assistance Does Ukraine Need From Partners?
To deter the Russian threat, Ukraine needs financial assistance from its partners, investments in the defense industry, and continued access to radio-electronic intelligence data.
Since Russia's full-scale invasion in 2022, Ukraine has become dependent on unprecedented military support from the West. At the NATO summit in The Hague on June 24–25, 2025, the issue of long-term assistance to Ukraine was one of the key topics, although it was not always publicly in the spotlight. Under pressure from new security realities, the Alliance allies agreed on historic decisions to strengthen their own defense, including increasing defense spending to 5% of GDP over the next decade.
At the same time, the final communiqué of the NATO summit recorded the allies' “unwavering sovereign commitment” to continue supporting Ukraine, emphasised that Ukraine's security is part of the security of the entire Alliance, and for the first time in history stated that direct contributions by member states to strengthening Ukraine's defense capabilities and developing its military industry will now be taken into account when calculating these countries' defense spending.
In other words, assistance to Ukraine has been formalized as part of the West's collective defense efforts. This is an important signal that confirms long-term support and integrates Ukraine's needs into the allies' defense plans. One of the main features of this support is financial predictability and scale. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte announced at the summit that the total amount of security assistance to Ukraine from European members of the Alliance for the next year has already reached €35 billion, although at the beginning of the year it was only €20 billion. This demonstrates the growth of European contributions and their understanding of the need to provide Ukraine with everything it needs.
In general, NATO leadership is calling on allies to maintain military aid at a level of at least €40 billion per year — roughly the same amount that the West has provided to Ukraine each year since the start of the war. This long-term plan (the “Ukraine package”), discussed at the Hague summit, is designed to guarantee sustained support for Kyiv for as long as necessary to repel the aggression. It is worth noting that, according to estimates by the Kiel Institute, total Western aid (including military, financial, and humanitarian) has already reached about €80 billion per year, of which about half is purely military aid. Thus, the figure of €40 billion per year reflects Ukraine's defense needs.
What should “New Ramstein” look like?
To make military aid more effective and protected from political turmoil, allies are reforming the mechanisms for coordinating it. After the invasion began, the main platform for distributing weapons to Ukraine became the so-called Contact Group on Defense of Ukraine (the “Ramstein” format), led by the US and comprising more than 50 donor countries. Now, according to the allies' decision, NATO is taking over the coordination of military supplies and training of Ukrainian military personnel at the working level, although the Ramstein political group will continue to exist under US leadership.
The integration of the Ramstein process into the Alliance's structures is intended to provide more systematic assistance. Analysts see this step as a kind of insurance against the Trump factor, that is, an attempt to secure support for Ukraine from a possible sharp decline in the event of a change in the political will of individual allies. At the summit in The Hague, US President Donald Trump avoided making direct promises to continue funding Kyiv. In these circumstances, the transfer of coordination to NATO should guarantee the continuity of military assistance, regardless of domestic political changes in any individual country.
Although the US is the dominant supplier of weapons and its position is critical, formalizing NATO's role in supporting Ukraine increases the collective responsibility of allies and ties assistance to collective security mechanisms.
Direct Supplies of Weapons and Ukraine's Readiness to Purchase Weapons Are Relevant
The Ukrainian Armed Forces' vital needs remain the supply of modern weapons: air defense systems, artillery and ammunition, armored vehicles, long-range missiles, aircraft, etc. Ukraine currently receives such systems mainly as aid, but, realizing the limited nature of free resources, declares its readiness to purchase critically important weapons with its own and borrowed funds.
A spokesperson for the Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs recently confirmed that Kyiv is in active dialogue with Washington regarding the purchase of American weapons, including Patriot air defense systems and other systems that were previously supplied only as aid. Ukrainian diplomats are working out the modalities for financing such deals from various sources, including international partners, investment funds, and others.
It is noteworthy that during the summit in The Hague, the first bilateral meeting between President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and President Donald Trump took place in a long time. According to Zelensky, the subject of the conversation with the American leader was precisely the possibility of Ukraine purchasing additional American air defense systems to protect cities. The prospects for joint production of drones by Ukraine and the US were also discussed. In this way, the Ukrainian side is demonstrating to its partners its readiness to take on part of the burden of supplying its army, either through purchases from the US or through the localization of Western weapons production in Ukraine.
Investments in the Military-Industrial Complex and Joint Production
The rapid depletion of weapons stocks during the war made it clear that Ukraine needs to increase its own defense production, and its partners need to help it do so. A defense industry forum was held in parallel with the Hague summit, where Zelensky addressed government officials and businesses about modernizing the “arsenal of democracy.” This resulted in a series of agreements on joint arms production. In particular, Ukraine and Denmark signed the first-ever letter of intent to organize the production of Ukrainian weapons on Danish territory. The Danish government has already allocated 500 million Danish kroner (approximately $70 million) to launch this project.
As Danish Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen noted, giving Ukrainian companies the opportunity to produce weapons in Denmark creates a basis for close cooperation and will give the Danish army access to advanced Ukrainian technologies. President Zelensky announced that Denmark will be the first country with which joint production of long-range drones and missiles outside Ukraine will be established.
Similarly, the Netherlands has agreed with Ukraine to produce more than 600,000 drones at Dutch enterprises. In addition, the Netherlands announced a new €175 million military aid package, which includes modern anti-drone radars and armored vehicles for evacuating the wounded.
Separately from the summit, a number of allies are investing in the Ukrainian defense industry through bilateral programs: Norway is allocating $400 million to support the production of Ukrainian drones and air defense missiles and is already cooperating with Ukraine on joint anti-aircraft missile manufacturing projects (the Norwegian company Kongsberg has opened an office in Ukraine and signed an agreement on the co-development of new missiles for NASAMS systems).
In general, Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov said that Western partners, as part of the so-called Rammstein Industrial initiative, have agreed to fully finance the production of Ukrainian defense enterprises deployed in allied countries, with all weapons manufactured abroad under Ukrainian licenses going to Ukraine.
Back in the spring, President Zelensky estimated the shortfall in Ukrainian production capacity at ~$30 billion and called on allies to invest in closing this gap. The response was the launch of funds and programs designed to arm Ukraine with its own hands — from a special EU fund for the production of ammunition to the aforementioned initiative of direct investment in Ukraine's defense industry. This approach not only gives the Armed Forces of Ukraine more weapons, but also strengthens the defense-industrial base of Europe as a whole.
Estimated Annual Requirement: security needs annually worth €40 Billion
The Ukrainian government has repeatedly announced the approximate amount of external security assistance it needs – around €40 billion per year. This amount is comparable to the current spending of allies. Back in 2024, then-NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg proposed to establish a multi-year support plan at this level, and ultimately NATO leaders informally agreed to this benchmark, establishing a mechanism for annual review of contributions and reporting on them at summits.
In Ukraine itself, this figure also appears in estimates. For example, a study by the Kyiv School of Economics in early 2025 indicated that the total needs of the security and defense sector (including the Armed Forces, National Guard, intelligence, etc.) amount to about $45 billion per year, a significant portion of which is covered by partners. This includes both military supplies and financial support for the budget to pay the military, intelligence assistance, training, etc. Thus, €40 billion annually is a concrete calculation of what is needed for deterrence and gradual de-occupation. During the summit in The Hague, the allies directly stated their readiness to bear these costs.
Maintaining Support in the Exchange of Intelligence and Situational Awareness
A separate critical aspect of international support is the provision of real-time intelligence to Ukraine. Over more than a year and a half of war, Western intelligence has significantly enhanced Ukraine's ability to track and strike targets behind the front lines. The contribution of the US intelligence community is particularly significant, including satellite intelligence, radio interception, and analytical support. It is on the basis of such data that Ukrainian forces have successfully destroyed enemy headquarters, warehouses, equipment, and even the flagship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet.
US intelligence allows the Ukrainian Armed Forces to track the movements of Russian troops and select targets more accurately, while conserving available resources. For example, for the high-precision operation of HIMARS systems or ATACMS long-range missiles, the Ukrainian military relies heavily on data provided by partners. Therefore, recent fluctuations in US policy have caused concern in Kyiv.
In early March 2025, following tensions between the new Trump administration and the Ukrainian leadership, Washington temporarily suspended the exchange of intelligence with Ukraine – almost simultaneously with a pause in the allocation of military aid. This move signaled potential risks: if the US reduces its cooperation, Ukraine will need deeper intelligence support from its European allies to fill the information vacuum.
In fact, Europe's response was not long in coming. France publicly stated that it would continue to share intelligence with Ukraine, regardless of the US decision. Other Western partners expressed a similar position. In other words, Ukraine's need for intelligence information is now coming to the fore, and meeting that need is another form of military assistance. This includes not only strategic-level data (plans and movements of Russian troops, threats of missile strikes), but also tactical information on the battlefield — from drone images to radio-electronic intelligence data.
The timely exchange of such data significantly increases the effectiveness of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and saves the lives of Ukrainian military and civilians by allowing them to respond to enemy actions in advance. That is why Ukraine's integration into the Western joint intelligence space (such as projects like “Collective AI for Air Defense” or data exchange within the newly created Ukraine-NATO Council) is one of the priorities for cooperation in 2025.
War is Becoming More Dynamic, Victory Depends on Efficiency
In the middle of the fourth year of the war, it is becoming clear that Ukraine needs systematic, long-term cooperation with its allies in order to win. Based on the results of the NATO summit in The Hague, we can outline the main areas in which Ukraine needs military assistance from its partners.
First, it is the continuous supply of weapons and ammunition — from air defense and artillery to armored vehicles and aviation — in sufficient quantities to cover both the current needs of the front and the strategic tasks of creating new brigades and offensive operations.
Second, guaranteed funding for Ukraine's defense from the West at a level of around €40 billion per year (or more if necessary) — through bilateral and multilateral mechanisms — so that the Ukrainian state can plan its operations and army development with confidence in its resource base.
Third, institutional support and coordination — that is, the political will of allies to maintain unity, avoid “war fatigue,” and resolve bureaucratic and logistical issues related to the transfer of weapons. The integration of the Ramstein format into NATO's structure and the inclusion of aid to Ukraine in national defense indicators is a powerful step in this direction.
Fourth, the development of the defense industry – both in Ukraine (through investment, joint ventures, and technology transfer) and the expansion of production in NATO countries to ensure long-term warfare. It is already clear that without rearmament and increased production of equipment in Western countries themselves, it will be impossible to meet the enormous needs of the front.
Finally, intelligence sharing and training are invisible but extremely important components of support. Ukraine needs the eyes and ears of its partners, their data from space, cyberspace, and intelligence networks, as well as assistance in training its military to NATO standards. All of this together makes the Ukrainian army stronger and brings us closer to our common goal: establishing a just peace in Europe. In summary, partners are increasingly realizing that contributing to Ukraine's security is contributing to their own security, and the summit in The Hague confirmed their readiness to support Kyiv for as long as necessary.
Igor Popov, head of United Ukraine Think Tank, expert on political and security issues