India and Russia: Situational Dependence Instead of a Strategic Alliance

The rapid growth of forcing trade with Russia, particularly in the energy sector, underscores India's pragmatic reliance on advantageous deals rather than political alliances. 

In a world divided into polar blocs, India has managed to carve out a unique niche – purchasing cheap yet strategically essential resources while maintaining autonomy from rigid political alliances. Russia has not become an ideological partner or an unconditional ally for New Delhi. Its role is that of a supplier of resources and technologies that can be acquired more cheaply and on more flexible terms than from Western players. These relations are not an alliance but a surgically calculated economic arrangement.

Soaring Trade: The Numbers Don’t Lie

Before the onset of the full-scale war in Ukraine, trade volumes between India and Russia were relatively modest: in 2021, the trade turnover was approximately $8.25 billion. By 2022, it had more than doubled to $27 billion, and in 2023, it confidently exceeded the projected $30 billion. However, the real leap occurred in 2024, when bilateral trade reached $65.7 billion. Imports from Russia accounted for the lion’s share of this volume, with oil being the main driver – $52.2 billion compared to just $2.31 billion three years earlier. Other import categories also saw significant growth: coal increased from $1.12 billion to $3.5 billion, and fertilizers from $483 million to $1.67 billion.

In the first half of 2025, India imported an average of 1.75 million barrels of Russian oil daily, a one percent increase from the previous year. In May, volumes reached a ten-month high of about 1.8 million barrels per day, and in June, they rose to 2 million, adding another 17 percent in a month. According to Reuters, Russia consistently holds a 35–36 percent share of India’s total oil imports, while OPEC’s share has dropped to 48.5 percent. For comparison, in January 2022, import volumes were only 68,000 barrels per day, with a peak reached in May 2023 – 2.15 million barrels, accounting for 40 percent of the country’s total imports.

Against this backdrop, the contrast with trade with the United States is telling. In 2024, India exported $87 billion worth of goods to the American market. In May 2025 alone, the trade balance surplus exceeded $5 billion: exports amounted to $8.83 billion, while imports were $3.63 billion. The surplus with the U.S. was estimated at approximately 1.2 percent of India’s GDP. Thus, trade with Russia provides New Delhi with energy security and access to strategic raw materials, while cooperation with the U.S. offers significant financial benefits and market access but is far more vulnerable to political fluctuations and external pressure.

U.S. Tariffs: Economic Pressure as a Political Tool

In August 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump dealt the biggest blow to bilateral relations in a decade by announcing an increase in tariffs on Indian imports to 50 percent. The first 25 percent took effect immediately, with an additional 25 percent – referred to as “secondary tariffs” – set to apply if India does not reduce its purchases of Russian oil and military equipment. This move was directly tied to New Delhi’s foreign policy stance and its refusal to join anti-Russian sanctions.

India responded publicly with firmness but without excessive emotion: the decision was called “deeply regrettable” and indicative of double standards, as the West itself continues significant trade with Russia. In Punjab, farmers even burned an effigy of Trump, labeling Washington’s actions “economic aggression.” Analysts from the Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations warned that up to 70 percent of exports could be affected, including key sectors such as textiles, jewelry, and the automotive industry.

Despite the pressure, the Indian government confirmed it would continue purchasing Russian energy resources, citing existing long-term contracts and the energy security needs of a nation of 1.5 billion people. State-owned oil refineries began signing annual agreements with alternative suppliers to hedge risks, but private giants like Reliance and Nayara remain focused on Russian raw materials.

The oil market reacted cautiously: Brent prices fell to $65 per barrel, reflecting skepticism about the U.S.’s ability to force India to abandon Russian supplies. In Moscow, it was noted that attempts to completely shut down this market could lead to radical measures – from supply restrictions to leveraging tools like pipeline shutdowns, which would also impact American companies. This would result in a roughly 3.5 percent reduction in global supplies, inevitably causing a new price surge.

Arms Trade: Utilitarian but Still Relevant

Russia continues to be a dominant arms supplier to India, although its share is gradually declining. While it accounted for about 68 percent of arms supplies in 2012–2016, this dropped to approximately 45 percent in 2018–2022. Nevertheless, Moscow remains a key supplier of technologies and joint production programs, including BrahMos missiles, S-400 air defense systems, and the production of helicopters and armored vehicles. In March 2025, a $248 million contract was signed for the supply of T-72 tank engines with technology transfer, underscoring the utilitarian nature of defense partnerships.

Who Is Truly Dependent on Whom?

India pursues a policy of strategic autonomy, actively engaging with both the Western and informal anti-Western camps. Together with Russia, it is developing the IRIGC intergovernmental commission, promoting alternative financial channels for settlements in national currencies, and exploring the integration of the RuPay and Mir payment systems. Logistics projects like the Chennai-Vladivostok maritime route reduce delivery times and enhance independence from traditional transport hubs.

Russia, despite its rhetoric of a “strategic partnership,” acts more as an on-demand supplier – of cheap fuel, coal, fertilizers, and military technologies. India, however, holds the key levers, allocating purchases to maximize benefits and minimize political risks. Trade with Russia provides an energy and technological foundation, while cooperation with the U.S. offers economic scale and access to global markets. However, as the tariff conflict with Washington has shown, in times of escalation, the Indian government is more likely to prioritize strategic stability over political loyalty.

Volodymyr Kuznetsov, communications specialist, expert at the United Ukraine Think Tank