ISW: Terrorist Attack on Crocus City Hall near Moscow a Failure of Russian Intelligence and Law Enforcement
The 22 March terrorist attack by the Islamic State of Khorasan on Moscow's Crocus City Hall is a notable failure of Russian intelligence and law enforcement.
This is stated in a report by the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
According to analysts, the evidence available today from open sources "does not require any broader and more complex conspiracy theory" both inside and outside Russia.
The ISW reminded that Vladimir Putin, during his address on 25 March, said that the attack was carried out by "radical Islamists", but immediately accused the US of trying to cover up the "Ukrainian trace" of the attack, directly accusing Ukraine of being the "customer" of the attack.
"ISW continues to assess that the attack itself, as well as the post-attack claim pattern, is consistent with how IS behaves and claims such incidents, and has not seen any evidence of Ukraine's involvement in the attack. Available open-source data indicates that the attack on Crocus City Hall was the result of a significant failure of Russian intelligence, not a conspiracy," the report says.
The Institute noted that Russian law enforcement officials were too slow to respond to the incident - security personnel first arrived at Crocus City Hall an hour after the attack began.
ISW also recalled that the US had warned Russia about "very specific" signs of Islamic State preparations for attacks, but three days before the attack, Putin dismissed these warnings as "provocative statements".
"Russian intelligence may well have decided to ignore the US intelligence warnings because of the extreme distrust of the United States that Putin has driven deep into Russia's information and security space," the report says.
In addition, the analysts suggest that the Russian authorities may have been concerned about the spillover effects of intelligence actions targeting Muslim communities in Russia, which would likely "cause further discontent and alienation in a community that Russia already discriminates against but relies on to provide a forced labour force for the war in Ukraine."
"Russian intelligence may well have decided to ignore the US intelligence warning because of the extreme distrust of the United States that Putin has driven deep into Russia's information and security space," the report said.
The Institute noted that the Kremlin and Russian ultranationalists constantly insist on blaming Ukraine for the attack, which was most likely carried out by ISIS, which could be costly for Russia's internal security and civilian lives.
According to analysts, Moscow is ignoring the clear threat posed by Islamist operations on Russian territory to internal security and its civilian population, instead prioritising propaganda and spreading false accusations of Ukraine's involvement.