Economic Growth in Russia at Risk of Stalling by Late 2025
The Central Bank of Russia has issued a warning about the country's future economic development, noting that economic growth could stall as early as the end of 2025 due to a number of internal and external challenges.
The Gaze informs about it, referring to Economic Pravda, citing The Moscow Times.
In its updated macro forecast, the Central Bank of Russia predicts a significant slowdown in the country's economic growth. While GDP grew by only 1.4% in the first quarter, growth accelerated slightly to 1.8% in the second quarter, and in the third quarter, according to the regulator's estimates, it will slow down to 1.6%. By the end of the year, growth may practically stop — it is expected to be in the range of 0 to 1%.
As a result, the average annual GDP growth in 2025 will be about 1–2%, and in 2026, no more than 0.5–1.5%. This indicates the beginning of economic stagnation.
For comparison, according to the Central Bank's forecasts, the global economy will show significantly higher growth rates of 3.1% this year and 2.9% next year. China's economy will grow particularly dynamically by 4.9% and 4.8%, respectively. This highlights the gap in development rates between Russia and the world's leading economies.
Despite rapid GDP growth in 2023–2024, driven by military spending and government orders, the Russian economy is facing pressure from the war, sanctions, labor shortages, and high interest rates.
Analysts are recording crisis trends in key sectors: losses for coal mining companies, falling profits in oil and gas and metallurgy, and declining production in the automotive industry.
The Central Bank calls this process a “reduction in overheating” and a return to more balanced dynamics, but experts see such rhetoric as an attempt to soften the real picture. According to them, the current growth is weak and unstable, and a further drop in oil prices could significantly undermine the revenue side of the budget, which would increase economic risks for the Kremlin.
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