Military Analyst Assesses Russia’s State of Reserves and If It Can Fight "Forever"
During the talks in Istanbul, the head of the Russian delegation, Medinsky, said that Russia was ready to fight forever. And Putin, visiting the Kursk region, once again said that he would support the idea of an attack on the city of Sumy. All of these and similar statements by Russians are elements of political pressure and a demonstration of dialogue from a position of strength, military analyst Oleksiy Hetman believes.
The Gaze reports on this with reference to a broadcast by FREEDOM TV channel.
"This is an attempt to talk to Ukraine from a position of strength. This is also a signal to Trump that they are not doing anything yet, because this is part of their “goodwill”, their “compromise”. The US leader said that the compromise on the part of Russia is that they did not take over the whole of Ukraine. And so they are allegedly meeting halfway. That's why Putin is trying to show that it is possible to capture Sumy, it is possible to capture something else, it is possible to fight for 20 years, and so on. I think there is definitely no military component here. They don't have the forces and means to fight for so long," the speaker said.
According to Hetman, the Kremlin's statements about its readiness to fight for 20 years have a different connotation.
"That is, if you are ready to fight us for 20 years, it means that you understand that you will not be able to simply advance, in particular to Sumy. If Russia felt strong, they would have said “we will finish in a year”. I think from the point of view of political science or reasonableness, this is not a very reasonable statement. Both Trump and J.D. Vance (US Vice President - ed.) can interpret it this way: Russia is saying that it will not be able to defeat Ukraine in the next 20 years," the analyst emphasised.
Meanwhile, according to Hetman, the Russians are gathering reserves for the Kharkiv frontline.
"The forces and means that were freed up after the Russian offensive in Kursk region have been transferred to the Kharkiv sector. When the Kursk operation of the Ukrainian Armed Forces began last year, the first thing that was withdrawn from the Kharkiv sector was Russian troops and transferred to the Kursk region. So, naturally, they will move troops from there to the Kharkiv sector. And it is obvious that Russia will increase its presence there in terms of numbers due to the troops they are taking from Kursk region," explained Hetman.
Therefore, there will be an accumulation of forces in this direction, the analyst believes, but the size of the entire Russian group in the war against Ukraine will not increase. Moreover, according to him, the Russians have almost no reserves left.
"They have almost used up everything. Previously, it was possible to assemble one tank out of three or four - that's how they operated. There was information about the heads of the warehouses where Russian heavy equipment was strategically stored. Do you remember what happened to them? Many shot themselves because they had stolen everything they could. They took everything they could sell from tanks and armoured vehicles. No one thought that it would be standing in the open for 30-40 years and would come in handy one day. And then it came in handy. We started lifting it up and pulling it out, and it was practically scrap metal," said Hetman.
There were about 5-6 thousand armoured vehicles in such warehouses. But almost all of them have already been used, the analyst says. There are about 2,000 left, of which something can be assembled.
"We may soon see a KV or T-34 tank on the battlefield, because very old equipment is appearing. They can produce and repair about 20-25 units per month. This includes what they take out of stock and what they restore after a breakdown. The approximate figure is 100-120 tanks. This is with a large margin. But the Defence Forces destroy twice as many. That is why the Russians have a negative balance in terms of heavy equipment and tanks," the military analyst said.
As a reminder, since the beginning of 2025, the occupiers have lost 185,000 people killed and wounded.
As The Gaze reported earlier, U.S. President Donald Trump has privately told European leaders that he is ‘convinced Russia is winning,’ echoing Kremlin talking points and signalling a pullback from earlier demands for a ceasefire and new sanctions.