Moldova at the Starting Line

On 20 October, Moldova is scheduled to hold presidential elections alongside a referendum on joining the European Union. This small country has been under pressure from Russian proxies for over 30 years, particularly from the so-called Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic. The pressure has recently intensified to the point that the EU has announced new individual sanctions against those responsible for destabilising Moldova.

The scale of Russian interference in Moldovan political life is staggering. As the presidential elections and EU membership referendum approach, more information is emerging, revealing the extent of Russia’s involvement. Moldova has uncovered a Russian-backed operation involving 130,000 of its citizens aimed at influencing the vote on EU accession. This number is enormous for such a small country, considering Moldova’s population is only 2.5 million, many of whom work in other EU nations.

According to data released by Moldovan officials, at least 8% of the electorate has been targeted by Russian operations designed to undermine the elections. These assessments are indirectly confirmed by officials in Bucharest and Brussels.

Moldova’s Chief of National Police, Viorel Cernăuțeanu, revealed at the start of October that in September alone, activists from an electoral bloc linked to fugitive Moldovan oligarch Ilan Shor received $15 million from Russia to fund a disinformation campaign and acts of sabotage. He referred to video and audio recordings that supported his claims: “Russia aims not only to corrupt voters but also to provoke protests and destabilise Moldova.”

Similar information was released by Bucharest too. Romania’s Prime Minister, Marcel Ciolacu, has openly accused Russia of attempting to influence the outcome of Moldova’s EU membership referendum through disinformation campaigns. He dismissed accusations from Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova, who suggested Romania was trying to “annex” Moldova. “Russian authorities are desperately trying to derail Moldova from its European path through disinformation,” said Prime Minister Ciolacu, describing the run-up to the referendum.

This week, the EU imposed new sanctions on five individuals and one organisation for actions that destabilise Moldova. As a result, the number of sanctioned individuals has increased to 16, along with two legal entities. This time, the EU has targeted the leadership of the autonomous region of Gagauzia, which is engaged in separatist activities.

Those added to the sanctions list for promoting separatism on 14 October include:

• Evghenia Gutsul, Governor ("Başkan") of the Autonomous Territorial Unit of Gagauzia;
• Mihail Vlah, Deputy Governor ("Başkan") and media adviser;
• Yuri Kuznetsov, Deputy Chief of the region's foreign affairs department;
• Illya Uzun, Deputy President of the Executive Committee and a member of the Gagauz People's Assembly;
• Nelli Parutenko, Director and founder of the supposedly non-governmental Russian association, Evrazia.
• The only legal entity added is the Russian association Evrazia, which promotes Russian interests abroad, including in Moldova.

These sanctions continue a programme that began in early 2023. Unlike most sanctions imposed directly on Russia, these are somewhat different. Sanctions against Russia are far more systematic and comprehensive. However, the latest actions against separatists are only now beginning to unfold. The separatists are being targeted at a stage where they have not yet taken up arms but are focusing on disinformation and manipulation.

A Direct Threat to a Sovereign Nation

Josep Borrell, High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, stated: “Moldova faces massive direct attempts from Russia to destabilise the country, as well as challenges arising from Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine. This is a direct threat to a sovereign country, to its democratic life, to its path towards the European Union. The EU will continue providing all its support to the legitimate aspirations of the Moldovan people. Today’s listings are yet another contribution to the resilience of Moldova.”

Photo: Josep Borrell, High Representative of the EU for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy: "Moldova faces massive direct attempts from Russia." Source: Josep Borrell, X (formerly Twitter)

The European Parliament has also expressed its concern over the pressure campaign that Russia has already launched in Moldova. On 9 October, Members of the European Parliament adopted a resolution with 508 votes in favour, 53 against, and 104 abstentions, strongly warning against Russia’s continued efforts to obstruct Moldova’s path towards the EU.

A Knife to the Balkans

During the Soviet era, Moldova was home to the 14th Army, whose key role was to serve as a second echelon during the Soviet Army’s invasion of Europe. The 14th Army was meant to support the first echelon’s strikes through the Balkans towards Italy, Greece, and Turkey. At the time of the Soviet Union's collapse, the 14th Army was heavily armed. Moreover, following old Soviet traditions, these troops were initially designed to act as enforcers in Moscow's colonised territories.

Moldova’s independence, won in the early 1990s, did not go unnoticed by Moscow. Leaning on the Soviet military units that had sworn allegiance to Moscow, the Kremlin backed the formation of the separatist group known as the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic (PMR). This entity is unrecognised globally, except for two similar formations in the Caucasus — Abkhazia and South Ossetia — whose creation was also facilitated by Russia.

Effectively, the PMR served as Russia’s foothold, looming over the eastern Balkans. The PMR borders Moldova-controlled territory to the west and Ukraine to the east. One of the two strategic objectives of Russia’s offensive in the spring of 2022 was not only to establish a land corridor to Crimea but also to extend it to the PMR. However, resistance from Ukrainian forces near Mykolaiv, east of Odesa, thwarted these plans. There were also attempts by the Russian army to prepare a naval landing west of Odesa to break through to the PMR, but they also failed.

Until 2014, there was a slow process of transporting weapons from the Russian military storage bases in the PMR back to Russia, though this process was never fully completed. The current stockpile of operational weapons at the storage bases remains unknown due to the natural degradation of equipment over time. However, the Ukrainian command still considers an attack from the PMR towards Ukraine to be a plausible risk. The only factor making such an attack doomed from the start is the lack of a stable air bridge and the complete isolation of this enclave by land. Furthermore, the Russian personnel in the PMR is estimated at only 1,500 troops, with the rest being local residents.

Since the mid-1990s, Moldova has refrained from trying to resolve the PMR issue through military means. Instead, Chișinău has relied on a long diplomatic process. As we can see, the existence of this pro-Russian enclave has not prevented Moldova from receiving an invitation to begin its Euro-integration process. From the outset, Kyiv has taken a clear position on the PMR and Moldova: Kyiv has supported Chișinău’s aspirations to resolve the issue and has provided all possible assistance. Ukraine has also always viewed the close ties between Bucharest and Chișinău favourably, though, as already noted, Moscow has labelled such relations as Romania’s annexation of Moldova.

To Help Double Its Size in a Decade 

Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, during her visit to Moldova on 10 October:

Moldova has made remarkable progress since it became a candidate. We can start bringing the Moldovan economy closer to ours already now. To help double its size in a decade. This means good jobs and a better quality of life for Moldovans.

Photo: Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, sees the potential for Moldova’s economy to double in the next decade. Source: Ursula von der Leyen, X (formerly Twitter)

Who’s in Office

Moldova’s President, Maia Sandu, has arguably made the largest contribution to Chișinău’s Euro-Atlantic trajectory. The 52-year-old politician has held this position for the past four years, having briefly served as Prime Minister in 2019, though her government received a vote of no confidence. Sandu also served as Minister of Education for a time and was elected to Moldova's parliament on several occasions.

Her victory in the presidential election was quite convincing: in the 2020 run-off, Sandu secured 57.72% of the vote, compared to 42.28% for Igor Dodon, who had held the presidency from 2016 to 2020. Maia Sandu is the first woman to serve as President of Moldova. She was the first representative of the Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) to win the presidency.

In the first round of the 2020 election, Sandu and Dodon surged ahead of the other candidates:

• Maia Sandu: 36.16%
• Igor Dodon: 32.61%
• Renato Usatîi: 16.9%

Socialist Igor Dodon has a long trail of corruption scandals behind him, including being arrested in 2022 on charges of passive corruption, illegal political party financing by a criminal organisation, and even treason.

Renato Usatîi represented the Republican People's Party, a populist party, in the 2020 election. In the first-round ballot, there were eight candidates listed, but, as we can see, the real battle was between Sandu and Dodon. Moreover, Usatîi endorsed Sandu when he urged voters to vote against Dodon in the second round.

For the upcoming presidential election, 11 candidates are expected to stand, including Maia Sandu. Igor Dodon is not running, but his pro-Russian and Eurosceptic Party of Socialists is represented by Alexandr Stoianoglo, a former Prosecutor General of Moldova and an ethnic Gagauz.

Various polls over the past two months have given Maia Sandu between 24.5% and 36.1% of the vote in the first round. This means she leads significantly ahead of her nearest rival, Alexandr Stoianoglo, with at least double the support. Renato Usatîi, the third candidate from the 2020 election, is slightly trailing Stoianoglo. All other candidates have single-digit support, with less than 7% in most cases.

This landscape, barring a "black swan" event this week, gives Maia Sandu a strong chance of winning in the second round, ensuring Moldova’s continued pro-European course.

And what about the referendum? For the referendum to take place, at least a third of voters — 33% — must turn out. This is quite feasible, as the presidential election will be held simultaneously.

In June 2022, the European Council granted Moldova and Ukraine candidate status. Chișinău aims to become a full EU member by 2030. On 16 May 2024, the Moldovan parliament approved the holding of the referendum on 20 October.

The referendum question will be: "Do you support amending the Constitution to allow the Republic of Moldova to join the European Union?"

The autonomous region of Gagauzia is largely against EU integration, primarily due to rumours, heavily promoted, that EU integration would lead to Moldova being absorbed by Romania. However, recent polls indicate significant support for a "yes" vote in the upcoming referendum.