NATO Allies Quietly Prepare for Possible U.S. Troop Cuts in Europe
European NATO members have begun internal planning for a potential reduction of U.S. military forces on the continent, anticipating a shift under President Donald Trump despite no formal announcement from Washington, The Gaze reports, citing Euractiv.
With around 80,000 American troops currently stationed in Europe, officials across NATO believe a drawdown is now a matter of when — not if — as the Trump administration refocuses military priorities toward Asia and the Middle East.
“It is not a question of whether there is a U.S. drawdown,” said one NATO diplomat, “but how orderly it can be done without jeopardising existing alliance defence plans.”
Concerns are mounting, particularly in Eastern Europe, where American forces form the backbone of NATO’s deterrence posture. Alliance-wide defense strategies, revamped only last year, depend heavily on U.S. airpower, logistics, and command structures — capabilities that many European militaries acknowledge they cannot replace in the near term.
Privately, NATO members have begun urging the alliance to accelerate review of its defense plans to adapt to a potentially smaller American footprint. Scenarios discussed in internal meetings include the possible withdrawal of 10,000 to 20,000 U.S. troops, as well as the implications for U.S. bases in Germany and Italy.
Although U.S. Ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker has pledged that any changes would be coordinated with allies, many in Brussels remain uneasy. “There will be no surprises,” promised Secretary of State Marco Rubio earlier this year, but European diplomats say they’ve yet to receive briefings on the ongoing Pentagon review.
Some reassurance came with Trump’s recent nomination of Lt. Gen. Alexus G. Grynkewich to lead NATO forces in Europe, maintaining a long-standing U.S. presence in the top military role. Still, analysts say Trump’s focus on the Middle East — including recent U.S. airstrikes on Iran — raises new questions about where American priorities lie.
“This isn’t just about the Indo-Pacific anymore,” said Oana Lungescu, a former NATO spokesperson and current fellow at RUSI. “The Middle East is again demanding U.S. attention, and that may accelerate decisions on troop reductions in Europe.”
Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte, the incoming NATO Secretary General, has urged calm, telling European leaders to focus less on speculation and more on bolstering their own defense industries and commitments to Ukraine.
But with no timeline or clarity from Washington, NATO’s European members are bracing for a post-American shift — and preparing to fill in the gaps.
Read more on The Gaze: How Europe is Preparing for a Great War