Not the "Yalta" Peace

It is important to understand the reasons why various European leaders have made statements about negotiations with Russian dictator Vladimir Putin. It is also important to understand the circumstances under which these negotiations can be effective, and to understand the international infrastructure of negotiation platforms or military-political platforms that are somehow involved in resolving the situation with regard to the Russian Federation's war against Ukraine. And at the very least, it should be understood that such statements about negotiations do not carry any meaningful load, because, firstly, no agreements and real negotiations are possible without Ukraine, and secondly, the Russian Federation fully demonstrates that it does not want to change its aggressive policy towards Ukraine.

The fall of the Berlin Wall and the unification of Germany into a single state, the collapse of the USSR, the war in Yugoslavia, and the peaceful separation of the Czech Republic and Slovakia ended the European consensus on the borders of states after World War II, better known as the Yalta Peace. It has not been replaced by a new consensus, despite the fact that many politicians and experts believed that this could be the case with the EU and NATO's expansion to Eastern Europe. However, this did not happen. And the current Russian-Ukrainian war requires all European states and their geopolitical partners to quickly find a new format and structure for European security. A structure that can withstand possible threats in general and from Russia in particular. But in searching for such a format, European politicians are forced to look back at the mood of their electorate.

Recently, in an interview with Heilbronner Stimme, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said that negotiations between Ukraine and Russia are possible only after the withdrawal of Russian troops from the country. In his answer to the question of how long Germany will be able to support Ukraine in the war unleashed by Russia, Scholz clearly stated: "Russia's attack on Ukraine is the return of imperialism to Europe. That is why now is a turning point, and the supply of weapons will continue as long as necessary."

Such statements by the German Chancellor are largely due to the mood of German voters, most of whom (57%, according to recent opinion polls cited by Heilbronner Stimme journalists) believe that there should be no negotiations with Russian dictator Vladimir Putin. However, almost 40% of those who support a negotiating position in Germany demand that the Chancellor maintain a sufficiently flexible position, with strict conditions for the start of such negotiations, and at the same time, further support for Ukraine aimed at achieving the fulfillment of these conditions when negotiations become possible. In this way, Scholz is playing to both the domestic German electorate and the part of the electorate that has moved from Russia to Germany and has taken root there.

It is also important to understand the difficulties that Germany has faced as one of the EU leaders after the failure of the Normandy format negotiations. Germany has borne the burden of responsibility for the fact that eight years of negotiations in the Normandy format have led to the Russian Federation launching a second wave of war against Ukraine. No preliminary agreements and mediation by Germany, nor mediation by France, have led to the war being stopped and Ukraine's territorial integrity being restored. On the contrary, the war has moved from a positional confrontation to a phase of active hostilities.

That is, the leadership obligations once assumed by Germany and France in solving postwar problems in Europe since 1945 have failed. Accordingly, it is important for Germany to preserve its foreign policy image as a country that is capable of producing results even in such complex issues.

Negotiations on Ukraine without Ukraine Are Impossible

During his speech at the annual meeting of the Yalta European Strategy (YES), President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy noted that the geopolitical configuration in the world is changing, but the completion of European unification is impossible without Ukraine. In this way, Volodymyr Zelenskyy once again confirmed his thesis that everything related to Ukraine should take place only with its participation. And there should be no negotiations on the future of Ukraine without it. "A negotiating table about Ukraine without Ukraine is impossible," Zelensky said last summer.

These principles are shared by our partners. For example, in his conversation with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov shortly before Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken emphasized that any discussion of European security issues should involve NATO member states and European partners, including Ukraine. Blinken reiterated this position in June 2023 during his visit to Finland.

Even during the last meeting between US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping, the US President said: "Yes, we talked about Ukraine and other regional and global security issues, but no agreements were reached on Ukraine." In other words, the leaders of the United States and China did not conclude agreements on Ukraine outside of its participation in the negotiations. Thus, this fact indicates an increase in Ukraine's subjectivity over the past two years and an increase in the subjectivity of the President of Ukraine.

It is already becoming clear that the post-war peace settlement will not take place within the Normandy format or within the Germany-Ukraine-Russian Federation triangle. There will definitely be a broader format, given that, on the one hand, Ukraine has already begun negotiations to join the European Union, meaning that Brussels will at least be politically present. On the other hand, Ukraine is on its way to joining NATO. Therefore, NATO members are also interested in taking part in possible future negotiations on a new system of pan-European security.

It should also be understood that the United Kingdom and the United States will play an active role in the post-war negotiations as the largest countries that support Ukraine in the military-technical sense and the countries that have lobbied for many favorable military-technical solutions for Ukraine. Therefore, the format of the negotiations will definitely be broader, taking the Ramstein summits as a model. The Normandy format has shown that dry diplomacy with the Russian Federation does not work, so there must be tougher negotiating positions, and tougher negotiating positions can only be provided by the United Kingdom, the United States, and Brussels as the military and political center of Europe and the Euro-Atlantic.