OPEC+ Moves to Boost Output: How could this affect the Russia-Ukraine war?

OPEC+, the oil alliance that includes Russia, is preparing a series of accelerated production increases over the coming months, a move that could lower global oil prices and further strain the Kremlin’s war budget.

The Gaze reports on this with reference to Reuters.

On May 3, the bloc agreed to a major production hike for June, with sources indicating additional increases are likely if member states continue to violate voluntary production cuts. Five officials within the alliance told Reuters that up to 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) of previously withheld supply could return to the market by the end of October.

This decision, largely driven by Saudi Arabia, reflects mounting frustration with non-compliance from countries such as Kazakhstan and Iraq. Riyadh reportedly pushed for the hikes after repeated overproduction by these states, emphasizing that continued disregard for quotas would be met with consequences. At the same time, Saudi officials reaffirmed that future production increases will depend on member behavior.

Russia, a key OPEC+ member, relies on oil exports for roughly 30% of its state budget. With oil prices falling below $60 per barrel in April – the lowest level in four years – the Kremlin could face growing fiscal challenges as it attempts to sustain its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The Russian economy, already weakened by Western sanctions, could be further destabilized if OPEC+ proceeds with its full rollback of cuts.

U.S. President Donald Trump is expected to visit Saudi Arabia later this month to discuss a proposed arms deal and a potential nuclear energy agreement. Trump has consistently urged OPEC+ to raise production to help lower U.S. gasoline prices, which remain under pressure from inflation and ongoing tariff disputes. The U.S. President also claimed that a sharp drop in oil prices could force an end to Russia’s war against Ukraine. The United States and its allies have long attempted to limit Moscow’s oil revenues through price caps and sanctions. A drop in global prices, driven by OPEC+ decisions, could add new momentum to these efforts – though it also reflects a shift in Saudi Arabia’s strategy away from price support and toward market share expansion.

OPEC+ has maintained production cuts since 2022. The current wave of voluntary reductions began as a way to stabilize the market but has become increasingly contested as some members ignore agreed quotas.

With compliance in question and geopolitical tensions rising, the group’s next moves will be closely watched – not just by oil markets, but also by governments seeking to curb the financing of Russia’s war machine.

As The Gaze reported earlier, Russia plans to begin supplying natural gas to Iran as early as 2025, strengthening an emerging energy alliance between the two internationally isolated states.