Political Analyst Explains Turkey’s Potential Role in Peace Talks on Ukraine

US President Donald Trump has said that he intends to work with Turkish leader Recep Erdogan to end Russia's war against Ukraine ‘through joint efforts’. One of the options for such cooperation may be to involve Ankara in the issue of a ceasefire at sea, political analyst Volodymyr Fesenko believes.

The Gaze reports on this with reference to a programme on FREEDOM TV channel.

‘I think there are different options here. One option, which, by the way, was already discussed back in March, is to involve Turkey in resolving the issue of a ceasefire at sea. Turkey, as the controller of the straits and the entrance to the Black Sea, as the country that once helped to conclude the grain deal, has already shown a very effective role as a mediator back in 2022. That is why the United States invited Ankara back in March to return to the negotiations and help, in particular, to monitor the ceasefire at sea. So this is one such function of Turkey that can be implemented, let's say, in a minimal way,’ the political scientist explained.

However, Fesenko does not rule out that in the future Turkey may become a negotiating platform and return to the role of mediator. 

‘This is where a more complicated option will arise. Not so long ago, the US State Department made ambiguous statements that the US could stop playing the role of mediator, could step aside. They will not withdraw from the negotiations. The State Department then clarified that the US was not going to withdraw from the negotiations, but would not directly participate. Okay, if not directly, if they are not the mediator, who will act as a mediator? Perhaps Turkey. This is one of the options. And behind Turkey will be the United States, which will influence both Russia and partially Ukraine, and Turkey will play the formal role of mediator in the negotiation process during direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine,’ the speaker said.

Theoretically, this model is understandable, but in practice it will be very difficult to implement, said Volodymyr Fesenko. 

‘Direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, in my opinion, are impossible after three years of war, such a large-scale, bloody war. It's one thing in 2022, February, March 2022 - negotiations in Istanbul at the end of March. At that time, the war was just beginning, it was already bloody, but not all the crimes of the Russians were known. And when the world learned about Russia's crimes in Bucha and Irpin, it ultimately led to the termination of negotiations at that time. Back then, negotiations were still going on, direct negotiations, even without intermediaries. Now it is no longer possible,’ the political scientist said. 

He stressed that mutual distrust is almost absolute on both the Ukrainian and Russian sides.

‘There is hatred, even Trump says so. But he is talking about the hatred between Putin and Zelenskyy. It is really present, mutual hatred for various reasons. Zelenskyy hates Russia for its crimes against our country, for the very fact of the war. And Putin hates Zelenskyy because he was unable to break him, to defeat him. However, hatred also exists between peoples and politicians, and it will also exist between negotiators. So how can we conduct direct negotiations here? Even if there is no mediator, we need a moderator,’ Fesenko believes. 

We need a party and specific people from this side, from the third party, who will organise the negotiation process, direct it, adjust it, and offer some compromise options, the speaker explained. 

‘Therefore, it is impossible to negotiate without an intermediary, at least without a moderator. In my opinion, the US should act as a mediator in this case, in one way or another. Their withdrawal from the negotiations can only have a negative impact. But perhaps the Americans will go for such an experiment with Turkey's participation. Let's see. For now, this is just one of the possible options,’ said the guest.

What will happen in the end, he believes, is up to Trump. And according to external signs, the American leader has not yet made any final decisions. 

‘Judging by his statements, he does not want to put an end to the negotiation process, but to achieve a result. Therefore, I think he will make, and he, his staff, his administration will make, perhaps, more than one attempt to resume and advance the negotiation process to end Russia's war against Ukraine,’ the political analyst concluded.

As The Gaze reported earlier, during his visit to Turkey, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that Ukraine will never compromise on its territorial integrity and sovereignty and expects security guarantees from the United States, the European Union and Turkey.