Political Analyst Predicts Easter Ceasefire Unlikely
Russia still has the resources to continue the war, while the best option for US President Donald Trump would be to freeze the armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine until the US-China summit.
This point of view was expressed by political analyst Igar Tyshkevych on the air of the FREEDOM TV channel.
He reminded that the head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund, Kirill Dmitriev, who was appointed by Russia's President Vladimir Putin as one of the negotiators on the war against Ukraine, recently visited Washington.
‘Putin's representative offered the United States some cooperation in areas of interest to Washington. These include resources, joint trade in hydrocarbons, and Arctic sea routes. This is extremely important for Washington given its confrontation with China. And the fact that Washington is simultaneously trying to limit China's international logistics. Here, let's recall the small tariffs on Egypt, the pressure on Panama, the Panama Canal issue. Let's recall the pressure on Denmark over Greenland. So the bargaining is ongoing,’ Tyshkevich said.
According to him, Russia currently retains a certain economic potential, as well as human and material and technical resources that allow it to continue military operations.
‘Accordingly, the ideal scenario for Trump is to enter the scenario of a war freeze, not necessarily an end, before the US-China summit. In order to enter it, as they say, from a strong position. For Putin, on the contrary, the key is to delay the process: at least until summer, if not until autumn,’ the expert believes.
Tyshkevych added that given the current situation, a ceasefire by Easter, 20 April, seems unlikely.
‘Any possibility cannot be ruled out, but judging by the way events are developing, I would not put the probability of such a truce as the key algorithm, or the most realistic algorithm, as of today. Moreover, it is worth remembering that the issue is about interests. Once again, the main thing for Trump is a freeze at this stage. And let's ask ourselves: does a truce equal peace or does it not equal peace? This is where the key difference in concepts lies, or, one might say, even a substitution of concepts,’ the analyst concluded.
After his visit to Washington, Dmitriev said that Moscow was allegedly ready to consider security guarantees for Ukraine. At the same time, the Kremlin will continue to insist on Ukraine's neutral status.
As The Gaze reported, in March, Putin said that he agreed with the proposal to cease fire in Ukraine, but before that, it is necessary to agree on guarantees that Kyiv will not use the ceasefire to rearm.