Prisoner Exchange or Rotation of Influence Agents?

On August 1, 2024, an unprecedented mass prisoner exchange since the Cold War took place between the United States and Russia. Seven countries participated in the preparation and execution of the exchange of political prisoners for Russian intelligence operatives, resulting in the release of 26 individuals. Among them were Wall Street Journal journalist Evan Gershkovich and FSB officer and assassin Vadim Krasikov, who had been sentenced to life imprisonment in Germany. Krasikov was personally greeted at Vnukovo-2 airport by President Vladimir Putin, who even embraced him, further highlighting the type of individuals needed in today’s totalitarian Russia.

This event can be perceived in various ways: as "another small victory for democracy," a spy thriller akin to "Bridge of Spies" starring Tom Hanks, or as a rotation of detained field agents in the West for "liberal" influence agents who are ineffective in Russia but effective in the West.

Besides Gershkovich, three young Russian opposition politicians—Vladimir Kara-Murza, Andrei Pivovarov, and Ilya Yashin—returned to the democratic camp. Shortly after their release, on August 2 in Bonn, these political prisoners of the Putin regime held their first press conference for DW, once again emphasizing that despite their liberal views and imprisonment, they remain Russian politicians with the full traditional set of Russian imperial narratives and a clear inability to grasp the horrific transformation of Russian society and the need for radical actions regarding the Russian Federation and its citizens.

At the press conference, the released Russian political prisoners made several ambiguous appeals to the press and the global community, considering the tragic events of Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine. For instance, ex-head of "Open Russia" Andrei Pivovarov urged Western countries to simplify Russians' entry to Europe:

"I take this opportunity to appeal to the global community, to Western countries, to return to the people of Russia, not to the authorities, but to the people, and extend a hand to them. This can be in small ways; we need to ease the pressure on people to give Russians a chance to see that there are not only enemies here, as shown on TV, but the same people who help survive and be free."

Given the continuous attempts by the FSB and GRU to infiltrate as many of their spies, saboteurs, and influence agents into the European Union, the opposition politician’s calls for visa facilitation sound at least short-sighted. It is evident that Russian special agents will enter Europe with forged documents, making it impossible for EU border services to distinguish them from "ordinary, innocent Russians."

Pivovarov also urged not to associate Russians with the aggressive policies pursued by Putin, claiming that ordinary Russians do not support the war but need support and help as they are "just trying to survive" in the current conditions. Four days after his release, in an interview with "Novaya Gazeta Europe," Andrei Pivovarov stated that he considers calls to aid the Armed Forces of Ukraine unacceptable:

"This is unacceptable for me because I still remain a Russian politician... Most of the people (referring to Russian occupiers in Ukraine) who are there are driven by fear, by the law, or by poverty. These people may not be supporters of democratic forces, but wishing them death and helping it happen is unacceptable to me."

Vladimir Kara-Murza echoed Pivovarov’s key points, calling for sanctions against the Russian Federation to be eased and focused solely on Putin and his entourage:

"I see the main focus of my international activity to remind people in democratic countries that Russia and Putin are not the same. Sanctions should target criminals and Putin's regime, not citizens of the Russian Federation based on their citizenship," said the opposition politician. Kara-Murza was also sincerely convinced that "tens of millions" of Russians oppose the war in Ukraine and that creating a positive image of democratic Russia is important to him.

As noted by Ukrainian journalist Oleksandr Kramarenko, "Russian liberals advocated for strengthening the Russian military-industrial complex by easing sanctions. This is the only way it should be communicated."

On the social network X, Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis sharply and emotionally responded to the points raised by Vladimir Kara-Murza:

“I would like to address the recurring question of those “ordinary Russians” who “shouldn’t be sanctioned”. 

I hear talk of ordinary Russians’ innocence, but then I see ordinary Russians murdering ordinary Ukrainians.

I see ordinary Russian mothers saying goodbye to their ordinary Russian sons and wishing them good luck with their ordinary Russian war crimes.

I see ordinary Russians celebrating murder. I see ordinary Russian parents dressing up their ordinary Russian children in military uniforms and painting the letter Z on a cardboard tank costume.

I see ordinary Russians coming together to make a huge Z formation in the town square.

Ordinary Russia is sick. Healing will be a long and gruelling process which can only start when Russia, not just Putin, is defeated. Without a defeat in Ukraine, Russia will just keep spreading.

So about those “unfair” sanctions against “ordinary Russians”... Well, anything which slows down Russia’s total war machine will have ordinary Lithuanians’ support. Whatever victory takes. Slava Ukraini.”

The third opposition figure, Ilya Yashin, was asked if it made sense to unite in the anti-Putin struggle with armed groups (RDK, the Freedom of Russia Legion) fighting on the side of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. He responded:

"I cannot unite with those who fight with weapons in their hands. I am a person who uses peaceful means of political struggle."

Yashin also called for "compassion and understanding" for Russians who went to war with Ukraine, noting that "War for these people is a source of income, an adventurous way to make big money by risking their lives. But I met very few true supporters of the war."

There is no doubt that the "new martyrs of the Putin regime" and "apostles of Alexei Navalny," as some media have dubbed the three liberals, are indeed political opponents of Putin and his cannibalistic policies. But the key word here is "political." In other aspects, they exhibit the mindset of people within the Russian discourse and are unable to look at the situation from the outside.

Yashin, Pivovarov, and Kara-Murza, like most of the Russian liberal opposition in exile, reject the idea of the collapse of Russia into national clusters, fiercely oppose the idea of armed resistance to Putin's dictatorship, and carry out several substitutions of meaning that are not noticeable to the Western audience but are very important.

In particular, they try to neutralize or equalize the victims of the Ukrainian people with the conditional "victims of Russians," calling to consider them equally affected by the war waged by Putin. They forget that any dictatorship always relies on a social base—without the support, even tacit, of the Russian population, no Putin could conduct a full-scale war in Europe for the third year.

Additionally, Russian liberals reinforce the already considerable chorus of voices against the collapse of the Russian Federation and in favor of building the "beautiful democratic Russia of the future." This liberal chorus overlooks the obvious historical fact that Russia has never been a democratic country throughout its existence, from the Moscow Tsardom and the Russian Empire to the USSR and the Russian Federation. The political regime, symbols, and names changed, but the essence, the core of Russia, has always been dictatorship. Any attempts at a political solution to the "Russian problem" only lead to time delays, the strengthening of the dictatorial regime, and new hundreds of thousands of victims.

Finally, sanctions in their global sense—moral pressure, coercion to repentance, and payment of enormous material compensation for committed crimes—can give the aggressor nation's society at least a minimal chance to realize their historical mistake and transform into a less aggressive and more democratic society. This set of measures gave the German people the impetus to transform from the "black plague of the 20th century" into one of the most prosperous democratic states in Europe. Yashin, Pivovarov, and Kara-Murza cannot be unaware of this but seem to be trying to "skip the stop" of punishing Russian society, which has plunged into medieval fascism, and move directly to the "beautiful Russia of the future."

However, without national repentance, compensation for damages, reform of the state system, and a new Willy Brandt kneeling, behind the facade of another wave of democratic reforms in Russia, sooner or later, a new head of the still undefeated fascist dictatorship will rise as the optimal and only possible form of existence for the Russian Empire.