Pro-Russian Party Wins Elections in Slovakia, but the New Government Will Be a Coalition

The party of former Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico is leading in the parliamentary elections, according to almost complete but unofficial data on Sunday morning, October 1. However, the victory of Fico's party, SMER-SSD, is not definitive, as it will have to form a coalition with other political forces to establish a government. Fico's campaign, during its course, advocated for ending military aid to Ukraine.

Elections in Slovakia, with its 5.5 million population, took place on Saturday, September 30. By Sunday morning, data from 98% of the electoral districts had already been counted. According to these figures, Robert Fico's radical party SMER-SSD was leading with 23.37% of the votes. The next was the liberal party Progressive Slovakia (PS) with 16.86%. The third was the party HLAS (Voice) with 15.03% of the votes. It appears that HLAS holds the keys to the future parliamentary coalition, which will form the next government of Slovakia.

From the beginning, exit polls favored PS, but the calculation results sharply tilted in favor of Fico. Thus, Robert Fico may, for the fourth time, assume the position of prime minister, having previously held it in 2006-2010 and 2012-2018. Fico was forced to resign in 2018 after mass protests against corruption followed the killing of a Slovak investigative journalist.

In fact, previous predictions approximately outlined the current landscape and anticipated SMER-SSD's first place but without an absolute advantage.

The position Slovakia takes under Fico's government will determine whether this NATO member will join Hungary, which is already trying to undermine the European Union consensus on supporting Ukraine in its fight against Russian aggression.

Also, Fico's party SMER-SSD is significantly eurosceptic, promoting nationalist and socially conservative views. In contrast, PS has liberal views on the green transition, LGBT rights, deepening European integration, and human rights.

Allies of SMER-SSD in forming the ruling coalition will likely be the HLAS party (15.03% of votes) and the Slovak National Party (5.68% of votes). It's worth noting that HLAS separated from Fico's SMER-SSD only in 2020. The Slovak National Party has a clear nationalist inclination. The three of them might not have enough votes to form a majority, so they will have to recruit other, smaller political forces. However, the key participant in the future coalition is HLAS, so this coalition won't be too robust.

But the PS party doesn't abandon hopes of forming a coalition. To do this, this liberal party needs to get HLAS on its side and, in addition, enlist the support of several other second-tier political forces. In this case, the position of PS coalition will be somewhat blurred on issues such as supporting Ukraine in its fight against Russian aggression, the green transition, LGBT rights, and more.

PS party leader Michal Simecka, speaking during the vote count, announced, "Our goal remains to have a stable pro-European government in Slovakia after these elections, which will prioritize the rule of law and begin to address and invest in areas crucial for our future."

In any design of a parliamentary coalition, it seems that the next government of Slovakia will not be too consistent and stable.