Putin’s Long Game: Why Europe’s Real Battle Is Now in Its Governments, Not Ukraine

Will the Kremlin succeed in using political manipulation and economic blackmail to force Europe to sacrifice solidarity with Ukraine for pragmatic compromises?

Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine has been ongoing for over three years, and the Kremlin is increasingly open about the fact that a lightning victory is unattainable. Instead, Moscow is betting on a long-term strategy of attrition aimed at breaking not only Ukraine’s resilience but also European unity. Russia seeks to win not only on the front lines but also in the political corridors of Brussels, Berlin, and Washington. This is a strategy where gas prices replace artillery shells, and tanks are substituted by information campaigns and pro-Russian parties in the EU.

Energy Blackmail Remains the Kremlin’s Main Tool

Moscow has used energy as a political weapon since Soviet times. After 2022, Russian oil and gas were supposed to become toxic for European markets, but the Kremlin managed to retain influence by redirecting supplies to China, India, and through “gray” schemes involving intermediary countries. Putin’s main calculation is that the EU will grow weary of high energy prices and revert to pragmatic logic: it’s cheaper to negotiate with Russia than to spend billions over years to phase out its resources.

Reducing gas supply volumes and manipulating storage facilities are tried-and-tested tactics that caused price shocks in European markets in 2022–2023. Even in 2025, Moscow is attempting to play the same card: restricting access to LNG terminals, creating shortages, and pushing European consumers toward the notion that “it won’t be cheaper without Russia.” The Kremlin understands that energy is a nerve center of politics, especially ahead of winter seasons and elections in key EU countries.

Disinformation and Information Wars Undermine Trust in the West

Russia’s strategy is not limited to economics. Propaganda factories, controlled trolls, and “information agents” in the EU and the US work to discredit aid to Ukraine. The Kremlin’s messages are simple: “Ukraine has lost,” “money is being wasted,” “domestic problems are more important than someone else’s war.” These narratives are picked up by radical politicians and spread through social media, Telegram channels, and even some traditional media outlets.

Attention to issues like migration, rising prices, or corruption scandals is exploited by Moscow to convince Europeans that their governments should “stop feeding Kyiv” and focus on domestic issues. In reality, the Kremlin’s disinformation campaign has a strategic goal – to undermine trust between societies and institutions, divide the West, and weaken NATO’s unity.

Pro-Russian Parties and “Useful Idiots” Become Channels of Political Influence

One of the most dangerous elements of this strategy is the reliance on political forces sympathetic to the Kremlin. In Hungary, Slovakia, France, and even Germany, there are already parties and movements that openly or covertly oppose support for Ukraine. Their funding, communication support, and political promotion are part of a broader operation of “political sabotage” in the EU.

For Moscow, it is critical to increase the number of voices in national parliaments and the European Parliament capable of blocking sanctions or arms deliveries. The Kremlin does not aim for total victory – it is enough to form a “blocking minority” that prevents consensus-based decisions. Such parties become not only a “fifth column” in Europe but also a lever of pressure on European governments ahead of every summit.

Moscow Exploits the EU’s Dependence on China to Undermine European Unity

Another hidden tool of the Kremlin is playing on the China factor. The European Union remains heavily dependent on China – from supplies of batteries and critical minerals to exports of cars and industrial products. Moscow is well aware that Beijing is not only a competitor but also an economic partner for many European capitals, without which it is difficult to maintain growth rates. This is why the Kremlin constructs a narrative in which Russia and China are presented as a “unified space of alternative globalization.”

The calculation is clear: if the EU is not ready for full confrontation with China, it will face a dilemma – whether to completely break with Moscow, risking its influence in the Chinese direction as well. The Kremlin understands that German automakers, French luxury producers, and Eastern European companies have significant interests in the Chinese market. Through this, Moscow tries to convince Europeans that sanctions against Russia effectively push the EU into greater dependence on Beijing, and thus it’s worth reducing tensions and returning to “realistic politics.”

In a broader strategy, this means creating an artificial choice for Europe: either total solidarity with the US and Ukraine, leading to conflict with both Russia and China simultaneously, or a “pragmatic compromise” where Moscow is allowed to retain some influence in exchange for preserving the economic channel with Beijing. In this way, the Kremlin seeks to use the EU’s weakness in its relations with China as an additional lever to slow down sanctions and reduce military aid to Ukraine.

What Lies Behind Russian logic of the Attrition Strategy

The overall logic of the attrition strategy is simple: if Ukraine cannot be defeated militarily, it must be deprived of support. The Kremlin calculates that societal fatigue from the war in Europe and the US will intensify – through energy prices, information noise, and the rising popularity of populists. This is precisely the “victory not on the battlefield, but in government offices”: it is enough to halt the sanctions machine, block new aid packages, and wait until Kyiv is left alone against the aggressor.

Russia’s strategy of attrition is not an improvisation – it is a long-term plan that the Kremlin implements in parallel with the war on the front lines. Energy blackmail, information campaigns, and reliance on pro-Russian political forces create a complex matrix of pressure on the West. If the EU and the US do not develop a unified policy to counter this, Russia could achieve its strategic goal – weakening the West from within, even without defeating Ukraine on the battlefield. Therefore, the fight for Kyiv is also a fight for the integrity of the transatlantic community.

Volodymyr Kuznetsov, communications specialist, expert at the United Ukraine Think Tank