Refining Slows in Aggressor Country Russia Due to Severe Flooding and Ongoing Drone Strikes

Weekly oil refining in Russia has fallen to its lowest level in 11 months as floods hamper operations and repairs to refineries hit by drone attacks slow.

According to Bloomberg calculations, Russian refineries processed 5.22 million barrels of crude oil per day last week. This is about 10,000 barrels per day, or 0.2%, below the average for the previous seven days. 

As the invasion of Ukraine enters its third year, Kyiv is using drones to strike at Russia's most important industry. The Ukrainian government is seeking to limit the supply of Russian fuel to the front line and reduce the flow of petrodollars to the Kremlin's coffers.

In early 2024, drones targeted key Russian refineries, causing them to partially or completely shut down.

According to sources, the daily crude oil processing rate at Russian refineries affected by Ukrainian drone attacks averaged 1.23 million barrels from 1 to 17 April. According to Bloomberg estimates, this is about 280,000 barrels per day less than the average for the period 1-24 January before the attacks.

Rosneft's Tuapse refinery, which was damaged in late January, remains offline, while other damaged refineries owned by the producer have not yet recovered to pre-attack levels.

Crude oil throughput at Lukoil's Norsi refinery in Nizhny Novgorod is also below January levels, but earlier this year the refinery also experienced a technical incident that put pressure on its operations.

The decline in refining was also affected by the flood that shut down the Orsk refinery.

As a reminder, all Russian oil refineries are legitimate military targets for Ukraine, according to the former commander of the US Army in Europe, Lieutenant General Ben Hodges. This position was supported by PACE. After all, Russian refineries produce products for the occupying Russian army and receive foreign exchange earnings from the sale of oil, which is used to finance the Russian war. Ukraine is acting in accordance with NATO standards. 

This coincides with what NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said on 10 April, that Ukraine has the right to attack Russian military targets outside its territory in self-defence - "it is part of the legitimate right to self-defence".