Russia Prepares to Withdraw from Nuclear Arms Control Treaties, Heightening Tensions with NATO

Russia appears to be laying the groundwork for withdrawing from key nuclear arms control agreements, signaling a potential shift towards a more confrontational stance with NATO.

The Gaze reports on this with reference to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov stated that Russia's “unilateral moratorium” on the deployment of land-based intermediate-range missiles, previously prohibited under the INF Treaty (The Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty), could soon come to an end. 

This declaration marks a significant escalation in Russia's rhetoric, with analysts suggesting it may be part of broader preparations for a future conflict with NATO.

Ryabkov criticized the West for failing to reciprocate Russia’s self-imposed restraint following the U.S. withdrawal from the INF Treaty in 2019. 

However, ISW experts emphasized that Russia had already violated the terms of the treaty by developing, testing, and deploying the 9M729 missile, which directly led to the U.S. suspension and eventual exit from the agreement. 

The Russian government's portrayal of itself as a responsible participant in arms control negotiations is seen as part of an ongoing effort to shift blame onto the West, presenting NATO as the true source of insecurity.

The ISW warned that Russia might leverage the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian war to justify its exit from other crucial nuclear arms control frameworks. 

Such a move could further undermine international efforts to curb the proliferation of nuclear weapons and set the stage for a more dangerous, arms race-like dynamic with the West.

In addition, Russia has engaged in a media campaign accusing Ukraine of failing to collect the bodies of fallen soldiers, a claim designed to undermine ongoing diplomatic efforts. 

Russian officials asserted that they had delivered the bodies of over 1,200 Ukrainian soldiers in line with agreements made during recent talks in Istanbul. However, Ukrainian officials rejected these accusations, stating that the exchange would take place at a later date.

The ISW concludes that with Russia signaling potential withdrawals from nuclear treaties and expanding its military offensive in Ukraine, the risk of broader confrontation with NATO continues to rise.

Read more on The Gaze: What are Putin's Goals in Prolonging the War?