Russia Sees First Decline in Trade with China Since Full-Scale Invasion

Russia’s trade with China has fallen for the first time since Moscow launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

The Gaze reports this, referring to Ukraine’s Center for Countering Disinformation (CPD).

Between January and July 2025, bilateral trade dropped 8% year-on-year to $125.8 billion, CPD reported on Thursday. 

The decline was driven by reduced Chinese purchases of nearly all major Russian commodities: oil imports fell 11%, refined oil products 28%, liquefied natural gas 13%, timber 10%, and coal 10%.

The only growth was recorded in pipeline gas and non-ferrous metals, but analysts said those gains were too small to offset the overall downturn.

Ukrainian officials noted that Chinese businesses are increasingly cautious about deepening ties with Russia in order to avoid financial losses and the risk of secondary sanctions. 

The CPD said the figures undercut years of Kremlin messaging that China would provide an economic safety net for Russia.

“The fact of acknowledging the trade decline at the official level demonstrates that the Russian Federation can no longer present itself as a ‘reliable partner’ of China,” the CPD noted.

The trade decline comes as Russia grapples with mounting economic pressure, including its weakest harvest in more than 17 years, raising the possibility it could lose its status as the world’s largest agricultural exporter.

As The Gaze reported earlier, the Central Bank of Russia issued a warning about the country's future economic development, noting that economic growth could stall as early as the end of 2025 due to a number of internal and external challenges.