Self-Proclaimed Belarusian President Lukashenko Announces his Next re-Election Date While in Russia
Self-proclaimed President of Belarus and ally of Russian Putin Alexander Lukashenko, while giving an interview in Kazan, Russia, where he is currently attending the BRICS summit, to propagandist Olga Skabeyeva, was initially flirtatious, avoiding specifics when asked about his candidacy, but eventually answered: ‘Yes, Olia, I will run for president.’
The date of the vote was set today, it is due to take place on 26 January 2025.
Lukashenko is actually announcing early ‘elections’, because by the next ‘election’, Lukashenko will have been in office for 4 years and 4 months instead of 5 years.
Valery Karbalevich, a political observer at Radio Liberty, argues that, as strange as it may sound, one of the important factors behind Lukashenko's rush to hold elections is his fear of the opposition. Karbalevich cites the weather as another factor behind the rush to hold the elections in January.
‘According to Lukashenka's logic, it is not entirely comfortable to organise protests in winter,’ the expert says.
Another important point, according to Valeriy Karbalevich, is Lukashenko's desire to turn the page in relations with the West as soon as possible.
‘He wants to show the West that all hopes that any democratic changes are possible in Belarus are vain, and the West must come to terms with the reality that exists in Belarus today and start contact from scratch. Moreover, the elections will be held quietly, without bloodshed, and without any presidential candidates going to jail,’ the analyst adds.
Self-proclaimed President of Belarus Lukashenko announces the date of his next re-election in Russia
Self-proclaimed President of Belarus and ally of Russian Putin Alexander Lukashenko, while giving an interview in Kazan, Russia, where he is currently attending the BRICS summit, to propagandist Olga Skabeyeva, was at first flirtatious, avoiding specifics when asked about his candidacy, but eventually answered: ‘Yes, Olia, I will run for president.’
The date of the vote was set today, it is due to take place on 26 January 2025.
Lukashenko is actually announcing early ‘elections’, because by the next ‘election’, Lukashenko will have been in office for 4 years and 4 months instead of 5 years.
Valery Karbalevich, a political observer at Radio Liberty, argues that, as strange as it may sound, one of the important factors behind Lukashenko's rush to hold elections is his fear of the opposition. Karbalevich cites the weather as another factor behind the rush to hold the elections in January.
‘According to Lukashenka's logic, it is not entirely comfortable to organise protests in winter,’ the expert says.
Another important point, according to Valeriy Karbalevich, is Lukashenko's desire to turn the page in relations with the West as soon as possible.
‘He wants to show the West that all hopes that any democratic changes are possible in Belarus are vain, and the West must come to terms with the reality that exists in Belarus today and start contact from scratch. Moreover, the elections will be held quietly, without bloodshed, and without any presidential candidates going to jail,’ the analyst adds.
The only intrigue in the ‘elections’ is how many votes Lukashenko will want to attribute to himself. Should he repeat 2020 and say 80%? Or should he demonstrate that support has grown? Especially since Vladimir Putin set a new benchmark with 87% in his election. Perhaps the head of the CEC, Ihor Karpenko, will be guided to draw a little more than Putin.
The elections will be fully controlled, with no opposition candidates allowed. But in order to create the illusion of a political process, someone has to be included on the ballot. And a candidate who would not look more attractive than Lukashenko. Officials close to the government, such as Natalia Kochanova, are unlikely to be put on the ballot - they will have to attribute some of the votes to make them look solid (and thus take percentages from themselves). There are no liberal-minded candidates either.
A candidate from the pocket opposition like Yuriy Voskresensky would mean too much trust. And Sergei Cherechen, who was allowed to be on the ballot in the last election, is still too young - he will be only 39 years old (after the constitutional amendments, the age limit was raised to 40).
The traditional spoiler could be Oleh Haidukevych. He has already announced that his party will run in the elections. Most likely, he will run as a candidate.
Perhaps the second spoiler will come from one of the trade unions or other pseudo-public organisations. These could be current or former leaders, the notional Mikhail Orda or Oleg Romanov, or their lesser-status deputies. Or one of the communist leaders, who will be painted as the 1%. One could also consider a reliable pensioner, such as the former chairman of the House of Representatives, Vladimir Andreichenko, to make Lukashenko look young and vigorous.
It is expected that the main task of the spoiler candidates will be to praise his achievements and, perhaps, tactfully hint at the shortcomings on the ground.