Starmer's Rapid Engagements

Prime Minister Keir Starmer inherited a growing economy from the Conservative government, but also a host of problems and challenges both domestically and in foreign policy. Starmer had a convenient opportunity to address foreign policy challenges during a series of "quick meetings" facilitated by the NATO Summit in Washington. However, even during the summit, new problems arose for him. The most important thing is not the problems, but that Britain is returning to closer ties with the EU and strengthening its voice in foreign policy.

Keir Starmer and his Labour team came to victory largely because they demonstrated a determination to move the UK towards a more Eurocentric position during the campaign, contrasting with the actions of the Conservatives, during whose tenure Brexit occurred. In fact, the conditions for leaving the EU were formed during negotiations led by the Conservative government, primarily under Boris Johnson.

Brexit and Money

Reviewing the Brexit trade agreement with the EU, previously managed by Boris Johnson, is a cornerstone of Labour policy. But the new Prime Minister is advancing this agenda even faster than his party members expected. During the campaign, Labour did not overly emphasise their soft reintegration intentions, possibly to avoid turning the elections into a kind of referendum on reviewing Brexit. The only thing Starmer and his party openly insisted on while in opposition was rejecting the prospect of rejoining the EU's single market or customs union. The reason for this delicacy is obvious – Labour did not want to turn the election into a de facto referendum on Brexit.

However, Labour's convincing victory now allows Starmer not to overly heed previous public calls. He also has the opportunity to focus more on the foreign policy agenda, whereas the Conservatives, after the economic crisis caused by COVID-19, were forced to focus a lot on domestic problems. This is almost always not the best background for participating in parliamentary races.

In particular, the Conservatives' position was significantly undermined by the need to conduct rather stringent budgetary policies. An example vividly illustrating this problem is the dispute over the cancellation of certain tax benefits for families with two or more children. The Conservative government imposed restrictions on access to this benefit, affecting the interests of British families with approximately 1.6 million children. Now MPs from the Prime Minister's party are pressing the government to lift the restrictions imposed by the Conservatives. However, the Labour government calls for "a bit of patience" for the sake of a healthier state budget.

Starmer has a significant temptation to exploit in populist aims the opportunity provided by the governance of his predecessors – the Conservative government. Due to disciplined economic policy, the Conservatives managed to cope quite well with the consequences of the crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, despite the rise in energy prices triggered by Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Now, the UK has started to recover fairly quickly, even faster than economic experts expected. According to data from the UK's Office for National Statistics released on 11 July, economic growth in Britain from March to May was the strongest in over two years. In May alone, the British economy grew by 0.4%, double the forecast formed from a Reuters economists' poll.

This means that the slowdown that troubled the previous government last year can be forgotten like a bad dream. Official forecasts predicted economic growth of 0.8% in 2024, while economists now seriously discuss whether the annual growth will be 1.5% or even more. The growth forecast of 0.8% for the current year was the basis for the tax and budget plans of the previous Conservative government for 2024.

Starmer promises to return the British economy to an annual growth of 2.5%, as it was during the "juicy" times twenty years ago. But it will be very difficult for him to do this given the need to conduct an active social policy, spend money on new infrastructure, support strategic sectors of the economy, and increase defence spending. All this while fulfilling the promise not to raise taxes. For this reason, Starmer seemingly announced plans at the NATO summit in Washington to increase defence spending to 2.5% of GDP, but did not specify when he would do this.

Pivot to the EU

During his closing press conference in Washington, Keir Starmer emphasised that "Britain has a place on the world stage" and that he is "determined to reset our relations with Europe." "The United Kingdom is back," Starmer declared. "We are confident, we want to play our role on the world stage."

This intent is clearly illustrated by a series of significant meetings the British Prime Minister held on the sidelines of the summit in Washington. Perhaps the most notable were his talks with US President Joe Biden and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

During his closing press conference, Starmer confirmed the UK's "steadfast and unwavering commitment" to the NATO alliance, the readiness to assist Ukraine in defeating Russia, as well as investing in "the collective security of our country, our continent, and our allies around the world," and playing a "full role" in the Alliance. The British Prime Minister also mentioned plans to negotiate a new security agreement with EU countries. Commenting on the UK’s stance on the Gaza conflict, Starmer said that a ceasefire "must be the foundation for a process towards a two-state solution, a viable Palestinian state alongside a secure and reliable Israel."

The only unfortunate episode during the summit was a dispute within his own government: after Starmer announced that Ukraine could use British missiles beyond its territory against military targets, Downing Street corrected him, stating that the UK government's position on not using missiles outside Ukraine remained unchanged.