The Escalation That Never Happens

From time to time, thousands of people around the world are "concerned" that Russia will escalate. From the student to the president, everyone tries to predict when Putin will press the red nuclear button and how to avoid it. In his article, Yale University professor Timothy Snyder calls this fear of potential negative consequences a "triumph of Russian propaganda."

The fact is that numerous "red lines" voiced by the Kremlin have been violated and this has not changed the nature of Russia's actions or intentions

A year ago, Western partners were protecting Russia from Ukrainian retaliation by limiting the supply of long-range weapons. The Ukrainian armed forces received clear signals from critical allies that retaliatory strikes against targets in Russia were unacceptable.

The United States, Germany, and other countries also demanded that Kyiv provide guarantees that the weapons they provided would not be used inside Russia.

Despite the fact that such actions are considered legitimate destruction of legitimate targets and are permitted by international rules of warfare, Ukraine has been limited in its right to respond adequately to the unprecedented destruction that the Russian army has been wreaking day after day.

It is a bit like rooting for a basketball team but believing it should play without ever taking the ball past halfcourt, or rooting for a boxer but claiming he is not allowed to throw a punch after his opponent does, - Timothy Snyder

According to the researcher, this approach will not reduce the escalation, but rather create a precedent for impunity and "surreal warfare, where the aggressor benefits from guarantees that any destruction will be limited to the territory of its victim."

"The war is returning to the territory of Russia — to its symbolic centers and military bases, and this is an inevitable, natural and absolutely fair process," - Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine 

Today, the war of aggression in Ukraine launched by Russia is actually being waged on the territory of the Russian Federation and is not escalating beyond the current one. It seems that the world is learning to resist Russian propaganda about nuclear war; Ukraine is fighting for its right to a fair defense; and Russia is plunging into a war it has started.

Ships of the Russian Black Sea Fleet

At least two warships at a Russian naval shipyard in the Russian-occupied Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea have been damaged by Ukrainian attacks.

Video footage from the occupied city of Sevastopol, posted by eyewitnesses on social media yesterday, showed explosions and a fire at the Ordzhonikidze Shipbuilding and Repair Plant.

The Russian Defense Ministry said that the fire was the result of a Ukrainian attack, during which 10 missiles were fired at the plant, seven of which were shot down by air defense. Three more sea drones were fired at Russian ships in the Black Sea.

Independent analysts from open sources have published satellite images showing that at the time of the attack, a large Project 775 amphibious assault ship and a submarine, presumably Project 877/636, were in dry dock. According to unconfirmed reports, these are the Minsk amphibious assault ship and the Rostov-on-Don submarine. Boats of this type are also known as Varshavyanka and are actively used by Russia as carriers of Kalibr cruise missiles during attacks on Ukraine.

This attack was the largest on the base of the Russian Black Sea Fleet since the beginning of the full-scale invasion in February 2022 and the first successful strike on a Russian submarine. Experts call it history-making.

Ukraine usually avoids commenting on "emergencies" in the Russian-occupied Ukrainian peninsula. However, after the attack, Andrii Yermak, Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, posted a message saying that "the country's defense forces always achieve important successes."

Drone attacks

On the night of August 29, Ukrainian drones flew over seven Russian regions and successfully reached the Russian air base in Pskov, 600 kilometers from the Ukrainian border.

Two Russian military transport aircraft were destroyed and two more damaged.

It is difficult to say how the operation was carried out, but the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry, Kyrylo Budanov, said that the attack was carried out from the Russian territory, without saying which drones were used or how many.

On August 22, at least one Tu-22M strategic bomber was set on fire at the Soltsy-2 airbase in northern Russia; on August 26, Moscow was once again attacked by a drone, according to Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin, before being shot down on approach for 5 days in a row.

Such reports were once the exception, but now they are almost a daily reality.

The damage has not yet led to a dramatic destruction of the Russian air force's defense capabilities, but it has become a serious reason for increased controversy within Russia. It is also an indicative marker for the world, as the "mighty" Russia responds to such attacks with another round of unrealized threats.

The Liberation Movement and partisans

In late spring, on May 22, 2023, explosions occurred in the Belgorod region. The media reported that Russian volunteers had arrived in the area. The Telegram channel of the so-called Freedom of Russia Legion published a video in which people in military uniforms said they were "returning home to fight for freedom from the authorities." Residents of the Russian border regions were urged not to resist.

The Russian authorities announced the introduction of a "counterterrorist operation regime" in the region and began an urgent evacuation of nuclear munitions from the storage facility to the territory of Belgorod region.

At the same time, members of the Russian Volunteer Corps released a video filmed near the signposts of Bezlyudovka, Churovichi and Lyubymovka, border settlements of the Belgorod, Bryansk and Kursk regions of the Russian Federation.

Russian Presidential Spokesperson Peskov called the events in the Belgorod region "Ukrainian sabotage."

Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to the Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, said that Ukraine has "no direct relation" to the events taking place in the Belgorod region of Russia, but is "watching with interest" the "guerrilla movement consisting of Russian citizens" involved.

At present, the so-called "gray zone" under the control of Russian volunteer groups continues to form on the territory of Russia.

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Prigozhin's rebellion and his show trial were another vivid indication of the new reality facing Russians today.

Having started a war against their neighbors, their own lives are now turning into a battlefield. 

And the question is not only about realizing Ukraine's legitimate aspirations to end the war by weakening the enemy's logistics and military capabilities. It is, first and foremost, about the widespread internal destabilization within Russia, the emergence of guerrilla movements and the strengthening of totalitarian practices against the population.

It is difficult to say whether the point of "no return" is close for Putin, whether the Kremlin will realize its hints of a terrorist attack on nuclear power plants in Ukraine or decide to go to nuclear war. Obviously, the answers can only be hypothetical.

Perhaps, instead of trying to guess the answer to this question and trying not to provoke, we should concentrate our efforts on how to end the Russian war in Ukraine?

Wars are known to end with a victory for one side and a loss for the other.