The Great Reset for the UK

A reassessment of Brexit decisions or strengthening ties with the EU through new relationships? A more prominent role in NATO amidst the perceived weakness of continental allies or distancing itself from European security issues? A return to influence in the Middle East or an ultra-politically correct foreign policy with tolerance towards autocracies? These are some of the uncomfortable questions currently facing the UK. The country is experiencing relatively stable times economically, but significant challenges in terms of security. One way or another, leaving the EU has enhanced its independence and broadened its scope for manoeuvre. This is all happening under the leadership of Labour’s Keir Starmer, whose foreign policy has proven to be as proactive as that of his Conservative predecessors.

On 10 October, Prime Minister Keir Starmer hosted a trilateral meeting at 10 Downing Street with NATO’s newly appointed Secretary General Mark Rutte and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Judging by the presence of senior figures from the British side, including the head of the British armed forces, Defence Secretary John Healey, and the Prime Minister’s senior national security adviser, the discussions were predominantly focused on security issues.

This meeting took place against the backdrop of the postponement of the Ramstein Group meeting in support of Ukraine, originally scheduled for 12 October. The meeting was delayed following US President Joe Biden's decision to withdraw due to the catastrophic Hurricane Milton. This hurricane struck Florida with winds of up to 195 km/h, causing widespread damage to homes and power grids.

The UK Becomes a Key Player in NATO

While the much-needed Ramstein meeting for Ukraine remains postponed indefinitely, it is important to note that the NATO Defence Ministers' meeting is set to take place on 17-18 October at NATO headquarters in Brussels. This is a quarterly gathering of NATO defence ministers, but expectations are high. Firstly, it is the first meeting under the new leadership of NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte. Secondly, it comes after the Washington summit, which effectively announced a NATO reset. Thirdly, this meeting is expected to address the growing security challenges that have intensified in recent months due to the crisis in the Middle East and the escalation of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Shortly after Starmer's meeting with Rutte and Zelensky, the UK's Department for Business and Trade announced the establishment of a new Office of Trade Sanctions Implementation (OTSI), responsible for enforcing sanctions against Russia. While this may be coincidental, it is nonetheless significant.

Photo: The trilateral meeting in London almost replaced the postponed Ramstein summit: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky (left), NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte (right), and Prime Minister Keir Starmer (centre). Source: NATO

Ukraine has already outlined its requests for NATO's support, as well as that of its leading members. While US leaders may be restrained in their responses due to the upcoming presidential election, London faces no such limitations. For example, the provision of long-range missile systems and the authorisation to use them against military targets in Russia is a key component of Zelensky’s victory plan. This plan was presented to US leaders at the end of September, and Zelensky has now presented it at 10 Downing Street. As the saying goes, the ball is now in NATO’s court.

Mark Rutte received this plan first-hand last week in Kyiv and now appears to have secured the backing of Keir Starmer and John Healey for his upcoming debut meeting with NATO defence ministers. This significantly enhances the UK’s role in NATO, elevating it to a level approaching that of the US. During his visit to Kyiv, Rutte had already stated that decisions regarding long-range weapons and their use rest with national governments. Thus, all eyes are now on London – will it lead by example?

There is a strong likelihood that it will. Since Russia's full-scale invasion in February 2022, Ukraine has received £12.8 billion in financial and military aid from the UK, equivalent to €15.3 billion. Over half of this amount (€9.42 billion) has been military aid. The UK was the first country to provide lethal weapons to Ukraine following the invasion. However, the total amount of support represents just 0.47% of the UK’s GDP, as its economy is substantial. By this measure, the UK lags behind Denmark and Estonia (both at 1.9% of GDP) but is roughly on par with France (0.48%) and exceeds the United States (0.39%) and Canada (0.42%).

It is also worth noting that Volodymyr Zelensky was the first foreign leader received at 10 Downing Street after Keir Starmer took office in July of this year. Kyiv has repeatedly expressed its deep gratitude for the UK's acceptance of over 200,000 Ukrainian refugees for temporary shelter. Although this pales in comparison to the numbers who have sought refuge in Germany (1.1 million) and Poland (980,000), it remains one of the highest figures.

Beyond the factor of Russia’s invasion, there is also the issue of the US elections. European leaders are already factoring in the possibility of Donald Trump winning and are beginning to adjust their plans, anticipating a shift in NATO funding responsibilities towards Europe.

It is worth remembering that the UK’s most active foreign policy has traditionally been driven by Conservative governments. However, the time has come for Labour to respond to external challenges as well. Especially considering that 14 years of Conservative rule have left a relatively healthy economic legacy.

There Are Pounds, But They Are Hard-Earned

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasted in July that the UK’s GDP would grow by 0.7% this year, an improvement over the previous April forecast of 0.5%. This is significantly better than Germany, the economic engine of the EU, which is expected to see only 0.2% growth. Last year, the UK’s GDP grew by just 0.1%, but in 2022, it rose by 4.3%. Looking ahead to 2025, the IMF predicts UK growth will reach 1.5%.

In 2023, the UK’s GDP was valued at $3.55 trillion USD, with a per capita GDP of $43,450, positioning the British economy among the largest and most developed globally.

Official data published in September showed that annual inflation in the UK (CPI) stood at 2.2%. Inflation remained stable in August compared to July, and the figures for September will be released on 16 October. This will be the last measurement before the budget report, which the new Labour government will present on 30 October.

Is this a challenge? Germany's economy is stagnating, yet inflation there stands at 2.4% annually. This comparison shows that inflation in the UK is steadily and significantly slowing, reaching 4% by the end of 2023. The new government must maintain the economic trajectory set by the previous Conservative administrations, despite the significant economic losses caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.

It’s essential to view British politics from a broad perspective. Much has changed since Labour’s decisive victory in the general election on 4 July 2024. In that election, British voters elected 650 Members of Parliament to the House of Commons, the lower house of Parliament. Labour won 411 seats compared to 205 in the previous election, while the Conservatives, led by former Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, saw their seats reduced from 344 to just 121. The Liberal Democrats, still on the margins, secured 72 seats, up from 15 last time.

After the election, Keir Starmer wasted no time in strengthening Labour’s policies, not just in foreign affairs. With a commanding majority in the House of Commons, the government is in a strong position to pursue reforms, as it can count on substantial support for new laws.

Favourable economic conditions can tempt governments into pursuing popular, possibly even populist, measures. One example is the long-standing dispute between the Conservatives and Labour over workers’ and employers’ rights, which has resulted in a new law introduced by Labour on 10 October.

“Today, my Labour government is introducing the biggest upgrade to workers’ rights in a generation. Turning the page on an economy riven by insecurity, ravaged by dire productivity and blighted by low pay. We will grow our economy across the country and make work pay again,” Keir Starmer wrote on X (formerly Twitter) on 10 October.

Immediately, the ruling party was met with criticism, with claims that the proposed reforms could threaten jobs by placing more pressure on employers. However, trade union representatives also criticised the reforms, arguing that they do not fully protect workers. Sharon Graham, head of the Unite union, said the reforms leave "more holes than Swiss cheese" for employers.

But Labour could not avoid the reforms that were central to its election platform.

Another internal challenge is the budget bill, which the new government must present by 30 October. Chancellor Rachel Reeves is considering raising the capital gains tax to 39%. Officials are currently testing a range of 33% to 39% for the capital gains tax (CGT), which is paid by around 350,000 Britons. This tax is levied on profits from the sale of assets, including secondary home sales and shares, but is currently applied at much lower rates than income tax.

Photo: Chancellor Rachel Reeves is looking for funds, primarily for public services. Source: Rachel Reeves on X (formerly Twitter)

Rachel Reeves and Keir Starmer have previously promised not to raise taxes for “working people,” ruling out increases in income tax and National Insurance contributions. However, when it comes to taxing the wealthy, there are concerns that overly aggressive fiscal measures could drive affluent individuals out of the UK, a situation that France has previously experienced.

Interestingly, the Conservative government in the first half of 2024 twice reduced National Insurance rates, but it appears Labour is planning to raise them.

These tax debates and budget discussions are occurring at a time when the UK will inevitably have to increase defence spending. This poses new challenges for government policy, which has often referred back to pre-election promises. However, ignoring defence needs is no longer an option. The invasion of Ukraine by hundreds of thousands of Russian troops is too significant an example. The global order is also being heavily influenced by Iran’s attack on Israel and Saudi Arabia through its proxies.

Steps in Response

When Prime Minister Keir Starmer first moved into 10 Downing Street, he announced his intention to raise defence spending to 2.5% of GDP in order to respond to growing threats. At the NATO summit in July 2024, he insisted that increasing defence spending could safeguard the Alliance's future.

Currently, the UK spends 2.3% of its GDP on defence, which is above NATO's target of 2% and more than both Germany and France, which in 2024 are spending 1.7% and 2.1% respectively.

Photo: Defence Secretary John Healey is preparing the Strategic Defence Review. On October 10, he met with the Minister of Defense of Ukraine Rustem Umerov for a plain conversation. (left). Source: DefenceHQ on X (formerly Twitter)

During the 2024 election campaign, the Conservatives pledged to reach 2.5% by 2030. This is quite an ambitious goal, as the UK maintained this level of defence spending from 1998 to 2011. For example, in 1991, the year the Soviet Union collapsed, after five years of a more relaxed Soviet policy under Mikhail Gorbachev, Britain’s defence spending stood at 4.1% of GDP, and during the height of the Cold War in 1984, it was 5.5%.

The Conservatives criticised Labour for linking the pace of reaching this target not to security challenges but to "when the country's finances allow."

Currently, Defence Secretary John Healey is preparing a Strategic Defence Review, which will outline the pace and content of defence capability development, as well as, of course, the rate of increased defence spending.

"The first duty of our government is to ensure the safety of the country. That’s why we will increase defence spending and launch a Strategic Defence Review to ensure we have the capabilities necessary to defend the UK now and in the future. The review will also set out defence reforms to enable faster procurement and better value for money," announced Defence Secretary John Healey at the start of his tenure.

Foreign Secretary David Lammy echoed this focus on security at the beginning of his term, saying: "The security of Ukraine is our security, so our priority for Washington must be to demonstrate that NATO’s support for Ukraine remains rock-solid, and our backing will continue. Putin believes he can outlast the West, but he’s wrong."

Photo: Foreign Secretary David Lammy announced that he sees a connection between Britain's security and Ukraine's security. Source: David Lammy on X (formerly Twitter), video screenshot

Britain is a participant in global defence partnerships like AUKUS (with the US and Australia) and GCAP (with Italy and Japan). While GCAP is more focused on technological advancements, such as the development of a sixth-generation stealth fighter jet, AUKUS is a genuine defence partnership aimed at maintaining security in the Indo-Pacific region. This means AUKUS not only has interests in areas like the Taiwan Strait but also the Middle East.

Just as they did at the beginning of their terms, the Prime Minister, Defence Secretary, and Foreign Secretary are all keeping their attention on the largest war in Europe since the Second World War, although concrete measures are still expected.

"We have good news regarding long-range weapons and robotic systems — the enemy will feel it on the battlefield," said Ukrainian Defence Minister Rustem Umerov after his meeting with British Defence Secretary John Healey on 10 October 2024.

However, during comments on the talks in London on 10 October, a spokesperson for Prime Minister Keir Starmer reiterated the UK’s position that Ukraine has the right, under certain conditions, to strike targets on Russian territory. Still, the spokesperson noted that the UK's stance on the use of its long-range Storm Shadow missiles remains unchanged. In other words, “not yet” is the current understanding.

Following discussions with Starmer and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte made a significant statement. Although the subject was not directly related to the talks, the signal was unmistakably clear, given the timing and setting of the announcement.

"In an uncertain world, it’s vital to check and strengthen our defences so that our adversaries know NATO is ready and capable of responding to any threat," said NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte in London after meeting with Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. He was referring to the upcoming two-week NATO nuclear exercises, set to begin on 14 October. Rutte also added, "All exercises will focus particularly on the UK, the North Sea, as well as Belgium and the Netherlands."

It was also announced that no live weapons would be used during the exercises, which will involve around 2,000 troops and 60 aircraft from 13 countries, including F-35A fighters and B-52 bombers. The exercises will simulate missions involving military aircraft carrying US nuclear warheads. This comes against the backdrop of Russia’s recent change in nuclear doctrine and heightened rhetoric from Russian President Vladimir Putin.

In this context, British Conservatives, while in government, were more consistent and concrete. However, they are now in opposition.

A Book as a Reason to Return to Politics

However, the Conservatives are certainly not idle. Former Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has been rigorously questioning the future budget and potential tax changes in Parliament. Meanwhile, his predecessor, Boris Johnson, appears to be either trolling current politicians or preparing for his return from what has been a less-than-voluntary exile.

On 10 October, the book Unleashed, written by former Prime Minister Boris Johnson, hit the shelves. It seems to be part of a new trend – a book that seeks to act as a tool for rewriting history. Next week, Bob Woodward's book about Donald Trump is set to be released in the United States, already being widely quoted by newspapers and even Vice President Kamala Harris, who is competing with the book’s subject in the presidential race.

But what is Johnson’s book about, and what’s its goal? Johnson is not only a talented journalist and writer but also a politician. He previously published a highly popular book about Churchill, and Unleashed is his 14th publication. If you want to grasp just how dangerous his pen, or rather his laptop keyboard, can be, remember that a quarter of a century ago, he spent six years as the editor of the politically conservative and often outspoken The Spectator. A look at the covers of this oldest magazine in the world is enough to understand its boldness.

Unleashed contains plenty of intriguing details that Johnson had access to due to his former status, such as the circumstances surrounding Queen Elizabeth’s death, the influence on the decisions of King Charles's younger son, Harry, and the personality of Theresa May, who was Prime Minister before Johnson. While May paved the way for Johnson’s rise to the premiership, he doesn’t hold back in his criticism of her. There’s a lot of personal insight into major political figures – from Benjamin Netanyahu to Joe Biden – though the book is far from being a mere political gossip anthology.

Photo: Boris Johnson writes very thought-provoking books. Source: The Gaze

The man who completed Brexit – the politician who successfully led the UK's exit from the EU – a staunch Conservative, a fierce opponent of Putin, a biting and sarcastic debater, and the former leader of the Conservative Party, Boris Johnson, criticises modern politicians no less than those who have already left the stage. 

Could Johnson return from his voluntary exile to his country estate in Oxfordshire? Why not?

After all, the Conservative Party, which enthusiastically ousted Johnson from the premiership (in the summer of 2022) and later from his seat in the House of Commons (in the summer of 2023), has not had much success in the political arena since. A year after Johnson's removal, the Conservatives suffered a crushing defeat in the general election, with their main rivals – the Labour Party – regaining leadership after 14 years of Conservative dominance.

What could stand in his way? One significant factor is his tarnished reputation. Johnson stepped down as Prime Minister due to Partygate, the scandal over post-work gatherings with wine that members of his team held during strict COVID-19 lockdowns – restrictions Johnson himself had enforced. He resigned from his MP position following an investigation by the House of Commons Privileges Committee, which focused on the truthfulness of his responses to Parliament regarding Partygate. However, in both cases, Johnson stepped down voluntarily, only leaving his MP role after reviewing the draft report of the investigation.

So, this book could turn out to be the key that reopens the door for Boris Johnson’s return to frontline politics. In a time of intense global challenges, this might prove to be timely for the United Kingdom – more firmness in foreign policy, a greater reliance on its own strength, and more UK sovereignty amidst the wavering European Union, influenced by leaders such as Robert Fico, Viktor Orbán, and the far-right or far-left in Germany and Austria, who are still on the rise.