Phantom Long-Range Weapons for Ukraine

Ukrainian leaders have tirelessly urged their foreign partners to finally allow the use of long-range weapons against targets on Russian territory. For Ukraine, such strikes are a matter of survival. However, there are several obstacles. Firstly, the weapons are not truly long-range. Secondly, their use against targets in Russia is still publicly prohibited. Thirdly, such use is not highly effective without communication and intelligence support from partners. These pleas had gone unanswered for nearly a year, ever since Ukraine received ATACMS and Storm Shadow missiles. But now, it seems, the situation is beginning to shift. Although the signals regarding permission to use these missiles remain somewhat controversial.

At present, Ukraine has two types of missile systems with sufficient range to strike Russian military airfields and missile launchers located relatively close to the front line. However, Ukraine is not permitted to strike such targets deeper within Russia. Meanwhile, Russian forces attack Ukrainian cities, infrastructure, power stations, and military targets daily with drones, missiles, and air-launched guided bombs. Russia also uses cruise and ballistic missiles launched from land and sea, and has even attacked Ukrainian cities and power plants with hypersonic missiles launched from aircraft.

These airstrikes have caused significant damage to Ukrainian cities, killing civilians and destroying energy and infrastructure facilities. Russian airstrikes with guided glide bombs also place considerable pressure on the defence line. Glide bombs are relatively cheap and widespread, and are difficult to counter with air defence systems unless long-range anti-aircraft missiles are used to target the aircraft carrying these bombs. These planes do not approach the front line closer than 50-70 km. Alternatively, Ukrainian forces would need to destroy the airfields from which these bombers take off.

Although Ukrainian air defence is quite effective, Russian mass air and missile strikes still cause considerable damage. As winter approaches, previous damage to energy facilities and the threat of further attacks on the energy grid pose a real risk of humanitarian catastrophe in Ukraine. For this reason, in recent months, calls for permission to strike Russian military targets behind the front line have grown louder and more frequent.

Photo: President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky: "Every truly timely, swift delivery (of weapons – The Gaze) has a positive impact." Source: president.gov.ua.

"We hear that your long-range policy has not changed, but we see changes in ATACMS, Storm Shadow, and SCALP missiles — a lack of cooperation and supply. And this even applies to our territory occupied by Russia, including Crimea. We believe such steps are wrong. We need this long-range capability not only for the occupied territories of Ukraine but also for Russia, so that Russia has the motivation to seek peace," said Volodymyr Zelensky on 6 September in Germany during the 24th meeting of Ukraine's partners in the "Ramstein" format.

Missiles Exist, Targets Exist, but Strikes Do Not

In autumn 2023, Ukraine received American ATACMS ground-based ballistic missiles, but they have a range of up to 300 km. Ukrainian forces successfully used these systems to strike targets in annexed Crimea and occupied parts of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions. Although the Russian parliament, under Putin’s orders, added these regions to the constitution as Russian territories, Ukraine's partners have not prohibited the use of these systems, nor the use of British Storm Shadow cruise missiles and their French equivalent, SCALP, which have a range of 550 km.

However, since imported missile systems cannot be used against targets within Russia due to the ban, Ukrainian forces have actively employed their own long-range drones. There have been instances where Ukrainian long-range drones struck Russian targets more than 1,800 km from the nearest point of Ukrainian territory where they could be launched. Unfortunately, these drones have two major drawbacks. They are slow, and under certain conditions, they can be easily intercepted. Moreover, they do not carry particularly powerful warheads, meaning they can only inflict localised damage on Russian military targets.

On 11 September, during a visit to Ukraine by U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy, a rather telling statement was made. At a joint press conference in Kyiv, Blinken stated, "We discussed long-range strikes, among other issues. And as I said at the outset, I plan to return to Washington with this discussion and brief the President on what I heard."

On the same day, British newspaper The Guardian, citing unnamed government sources, reported that a decision had already been made to allow Ukraine to use Storm Shadow cruise missiles against targets in Russia. The paper also reported that this decision was unlikely to be made public on 13 September when UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer was scheduled to meet Joe Biden in Washington. This proved accurate, as evidenced by John Kirby’s statement on the same day.

Photo: White House National Security Council representative John Kirby has yet to bring the expected news. Source: Getty Images

"...I would not expect there to be any announcements."

John Kirby, the White House National Security Council spokesperson, during a briefing on 13 September 2024:

"I would not expect there to be any announcements on this coming out of the meeting today. There's been no change to our policy, Lara, with respect to long-range strike capability inside Russia, and I’d leave it at that. What I said was — look, I can’t speak for the British or the French one way or another. What I said was I wouldn’t be looking for an announcement today about long-range strike capabilities inside Russia, certainly anything — certainly by the United States. So, there's no change to our policy with respect to that. And again, I wouldn’t expect to see a change to that policy today."

Nuances in Wording

At present, the situation appears quite peculiar. It seems London and Paris are not opposed to Kyiv using Storm Shadow and SCALP missiles, but the problem lies in the fact that these systems use American technology. And Washington remains firmly against any escalation of the war in Ukraine. Although the U.S. does not oppose the UK or France making their own decisions regarding Ukrainian missile strikes on Russian territory, they refrain from endorsing such actions themselves.

This reluctance is due to the bluffing tactics used by the Kremlin, which has threatened NATO countries in regard to their support for Ukraine. Similarly, the Kremlin bluffed about possible Ukrainian attacks on Russian territory. However, after Ukrainian forces struck Russia's Kursk region, the nature of this bluff became evident.

Photo: Ukrainian Defence Minister Rustem Umerov insists on further deliveries of air defence systems and permission to use missiles against military targets in Russia’s rear. Source: Rustem Umerov, Facebook.

"...including air defence systems and long-range weapons."

Rustem Umerov, Ukraine’s Defence Minister, at the international security conference YES in Kyiv on 14 September 2024:

"Our strength is our people, every Ukrainian soldier. It is important to provide them with the best means of defence against Russian attacks, including air defence systems and long-range weapons. Thanks to modern technology and the support of allies, we are already seeing success on the battlefield. Ukrainian arms production is growing, and we are working on new projects to strengthen our defence capabilities."

Ukrainian military and political leaders insist on lifting restrictions on the use of missile weapons against targets on Russian territory. They remain persistent, despite the fact that even within the U.S. military, there is a belief that strikes on targets in Russia would not produce the desired effect — they would not destroy Russia’s capacity to launch air and missile strikes against Ukraine.

However, the current experience of using ATACMS and Storm Shadow missiles against targets in Russian-occupied Crimea tells a different story. The Russians have had to withdraw their main air forces from Crimea, as well as their most valuable types of missile launchers.

"Everyone is waiting for a decision from the United States. Everyone is waiting for such decisions. After that, they (Europe — The Gaze) make decisions, it’s true. And that’s why we really want to use these weapons and simply attack these military bases with these aircraft, not civilian infrastructure, but military bases," said Volodymyr Zelensky on 15 September in an interview with CNN’s Fareed Zakaria GPS.

Ukraine continues to assert its right to defend itself against the aggressor. On the evening of 15 September, a Russian glide bomb destroyed a residential building in Ukraine’s second-largest city, Kharkiv. The local administration reported 42 casualties, including four children, with one person confirmed dead.