The Ways of Life

Ukraine is one of the world's largest suppliers of agricultural products. Russia is doing everything it can to deprive Ukraine of this status through violence and blackmail, and at the same time to leave almost 400 million people around the world without Ukrainian grain, corn, oil, honey and other agricultural products (for some of them, this means being on the verge of starvation).

Today, when Russia is once again raising the stakes by threatening to fire on any merchant ships approaching Ukrainian ports to transport grain, the issue of global food security is becoming even more acute.

Robbers with a military fleet

In spring 2022, warships of the Russian Black Sea Fleet blocked 22 million tons of food in Ukrainian ports. Since then, elevators, port terminals, and the entire agricultural infrastructure and facilities of numerous agricultural corporations in southern Ukraine have been regularly and deliberately destroyed. The Russians are massively shelling fields, machinery and buildings, and stealing everything of value, including grain, from the occupied Ukrainian territories and reselling it.

"The international community must help Ukraine unblock its seaports, otherwise the energy crisis will be followed by a food crisis, and many more countries will face it," Volodymyr Zelenskyi said back in the spring of 2022.

At the same time, the UN recorded an increase in food prices by more than 12 percent constituting a record since 1990.

Recognizing global risks and their own benefits, the UN and Turkey signed an agreement with the aggressor country of Russia that made it possible to export limited Ukrainian grain. However, the Russian side regularly sabotaged its obligations, each time threatening to withdraw from the so-called "grain deal" until it finally blocked the procedures at the end of June 2023.

Solidarity Lanes

The river, rail, and road routes that have been used to transport Ukrainian products after Russia's port blockade are called "solidarity lanes." The European Commission estimates that this system of communication between Ukraine and the EU has helped export about 60% of the Ukrainian grain blocked by the Russian Black Sea Fleet, while 40% was exported by sea, through the so-called grain corridor.

In absolute terms, the "solidarity lane" has already accounted for 41 million tons of grains, oilseeds and related products. Moreover, they have exported 36 million tons of non-agricultural products from Ukraine: ore, iron and steel, soils, and timber," calculated in Brussels.

Lithuania proposes to expand opportunities for Ukrainian agricultural products. In a letter to the European Commission, Vilnius proposed to increase exports of Ukrainian grain via Poland to its Baltic port of Klaipeda and four other ports in Estonia and Latvia. Lithuanian officials estimate that 25 million tons of Ukrainian grain could be transported annually through these five Baltic ports.

As part of this plan, Vilnius proposes to create the so-called "green corridors" that would move customs control, phytosanitary and veterinary inspections away from the Polish-Ukrainian border. The Ministry of Agriculture of Ukraine supported this approach and in its letter to European Commissioner for Trade Valdis Dombrovskis identified a number of other ports that could be engaged. In particular, these are Hamburg and Rostock in Germany, Rotterdam in the Netherlands, Rijeka in Croatia, Trieste in Italy, and the Slovenian port of Koper.

Due to the disruption of the Black Sea Grain Initiative by Russia, the Ukrainian Grain Association also appealed to the European Commission asking to increase exports through "solidarity lanes" by 1-1.5 million tons per month. "This will lead to a significant reduction in the cost of grain transportation and will enable Ukrainian farmers to profitably export grain surplus to countries that need Ukrainian grain and stabilize global food security," the Association said in a statement.

In addition, the UGA proposes to compensate European carriers for additional logistics costs of transit through subsidies and partially to European ports for the so-called port costs of Ukrainian grain.

Lithuanian officials also called on the European Commission to lift restrictions on the transportation of grain by land across Ukraine's border with Poland.

As reported, in early May, the European Commission banned imports of Ukrainian wheat, corn, rapeseed and sunflower to Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Slovakia. In June, the EU decided to gradually reduce the measures against imports of Ukrainian grain by September 15. However, Ukraine's neighbors are calling on the EU to extend the ban.

On the NATO border: exporting via the Danube 

According to Ukrainian authorities, the most efficient route was exports via the Danube River. For comparison, before the war, the Danube ports: Kilia, Izmail, and Reni, shipped up to 5 million tons of cargo per year, and now it is 2.3 million per month. This was achieved thanks to the tremendous efforts of Ukraine, Romania, and the EU.

"If we consider the current and potential export volume in correlation with the level of transportation costs, this is the main way after the sea," says Manfred Seitz, Director-General of the Danube Commission Secretariat.

Under favorable circumstances, it is feasible to increase Danube exports to 3 million tons per month. However, this may be hindered by Moscow's new strategy of targeted destruction of infrastructure facilities involved in the export of Ukrainian products.

A recent air raid by Iranian-made Russian drones destroyed grain warehouses in the port of Reni. "It is obvious that Russia is now trying to close this route and completely stop all Ukrainian grain exports," - emphasizes Seitz.

Therefore, strengthening the air defense of the ports is one of the priorities now, "to protect the Danube ports and their infrastructure from future attacks so that they can continue to operate," emphasizes Seitz, "because it is now vital for both Ukrainian grain exports and the world's food supply."

Previously, the proximity of the Danube ports to the border with NATO member Romania was considered an additional security factor. But it seems that this is not an obstacle for Russia. The day before, one of the four ships flying the flag of a NATO member Romania state that came under fire as a result of a Russian attack on the port of Reni - was damaged.

So it is now clear that Russia's attacks on Ukrainian grain terminals on the Danube will make it much more difficult for shipping companies to find alternative ways to export Ukrainian grain and will lead to increased food prices.

Stakeholder protection

The EU has no easy options for shipping Ukrainian grain to international markets. New export routes will require additional funding and do not look "easy," Politico writes.

Moreover, even under the most favorable circumstances, any alternatives will not be able to replace the Black Sea routes.

The only way to stop Russia's illegal blockade of Ukrainian ports is to ensure that Ukraine wins the war.

In the meantime, Ukraine could supply its grain on food ships escorted by warships of third countries, such as Turkey. However, so far none of the partners has declared their commitment to provide their navy for such a mission.

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Turkey and China are no less interested in extending the grain deal than the UN, which is concerned about the threat of global hunger. Since the inception of the grain deal, separate business clusters, related to the storage, processing and subsequent resale of the Ukrainian grain have been created in the countries to which Ukrainian agricultural products are exported.

Perhaps this direct interest will motivate major players to find a way to stop Russia's "food terrorism."