Why NATO Membership Is Ukraine’s Real Security Guarantee?
Ukraine must retain the right to choose its own security arrangements, including NATO membership, in any future peace treaty—this is the core message of a new analysis for The Gaze by Igor Popov, head of the United Ukraine Think Tank.
Popov emphasizes that Ukraine’s relationship with NATO is central to lasting peace and must not become a bargaining chip in negotiations with Russia. He points to the upcoming NATO summit in The Hague in June 2025 as a crucial moment to “confirm the irreversibility of the membership course.” Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiha echoed this, warning, “If we get even a hint of a pause, Moscow will take it as an invitation to another escalation.”
According to Popov, Ukraine’s integration with NATO has already moved beyond the traditional Membership Action Plan. “Ukraine is not just adapting standards, it is modernizing them in real combat, and this experience will be in demand throughout the Alliance,” NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte stated. Popov cites successful reforms in defense procurement, battlefield medicine, and digital systems like DELTA as concrete examples of Ukraine contributing to the Alliance, not just benefiting from it.
“The most prominent example is the State Logistics Operator,” Popov notes, highlighting a $250 million savings through transparent public procurement reforms that NATO has praised as a potential model. He also points to NATO’s certification of Ukraine’s DELTA system and recent reforms in medical evacuation protocols, which have cut life-saving response times by over 30%.
Popov argues that Ukraine’s NATO path is not ideological but driven by hard lessons learned. “Staying in the gray zone has already resulted in wars twice – in 2014 and 2022,” he writes. A 2025 RAND report supports this strategy, estimating Ukraine’s NATO membership could save the U.S. $4.3 billion annually by reducing the need for forward-deployed troops in Eastern Europe.
To bridge the time gap before full NATO accession, Popov suggests formalizing “Article 5-lite” guarantees from key allies such as the UK, France, and Poland. These would trigger collective defense measures against future Russian aggression even before Ukraine becomes a full NATO member.
Popov concludes with a clear warning: “Any pause will only postpone the inevitable and will cost both Ukrainians and allies dearly. The only question is whether the Western capitals are ready to make a decision that will demonstrate to Putin that the window of opportunity for revenge is finally closed.”
Read the full article by Igor Popov: 2025 Summer NATO Summit in The Hague: The Moment of Truth