Why Russia May Advance Further Into Europe If Not Stopped

The facts show that the Kremlin has no intention of stopping its aggression, and on the contrary, plans to continue to dictate its will to Europe and the United States. Why, then, is the false claim that Russia's aggression is limited to Ukraine so widespread?

Russia's war is not a defensive one, but an imperial project.

This can be seen in President Trump’s Special Envoy, Steve Witkoff's interview with Tucker Carlson, an analysis of the 2021 US-NATO ultimatum to Russia, the Kremlin's war rhetoric, and the deep reasons for Putin's refusal to make peace.

In particular, he mentioned: "Putin will not go further than Ukraine. He has no such ambitions". This statement caused a wave of criticism not only among Ukrainians but also among Western politicians and journalists.

Overall, the main issue is that Witkoff is not just repeating the Kremlin's narratives; he is legitimizing them. It looks like Witkoff's assertion is mostly based on personal sympathies for Russia, not on real facts and security analysis.

Another argument points our Trump's Special Representative demonstrates a complete lack of understanding of the realities and ignorance of the events that accompanied the beginning of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. And they were quite revealing.

Russia intentionally set unrealistic ultimatums for the West even before launching a full-blown war on Ukraine

In December 2021, several months before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia officially put forward demands to the United States and NATO for so-called “security guarantees”. These demands went down in history as Putin's Ultimatum. This document included the following requirements:

- NATO's refusal to accept new members (including Ukraine and Georgia);

- withdrawal of the Alliance's military infrastructure from countries that joined after 1997;

- a ban on the deployment of intermediate-range and short-range missiles in Europe.

This document demonstrates that Russia demands not only the neutralization of Ukraine but also the strategic surrender of Europe, NATO, and the United States.

Significantly, this ultimatum was not put forward to Ukraine, but to the United States, demonstrating Moscow's ambitions that went far beyond the former Soviet Union.

The failure of the “blitzkrieg” against Ukraine forced the Russians to abandon such encroachments for a while, but now, having felt confident after the talks with the Americans under D. Trump's presidency, they are returning to the old demands that concern not only Ukraine but the whole of Europe.

In particular, Russia is now talking about the need to dissolve NATO. This statement was made by the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the aggressor country, Sergey Lavrov. “NATO should have been dissolved first of all after the Soviet Union ceased to exist, after the Warsaw Pact Organization ceased to exist,” he said at the Antalya Diplomatic Forum.

As Politico rightly points out, even the Trump administration's concessions (including the de facto acceptance of the Kremlin's narratives) do not encourage Putin to make peace. He ignores the proposals, drags out negotiations, and at the same time continues shelling Ukrainian cities.

Why does Putin not Want Peace? Politico presents 7 Reasons:

1. War is a justification for dictatorship.

2. 2. Putin loves militaristic rituals.

3. The Russian economy depends on war.

4. Social benefits keep the population loyal.

5. Abrupt changes are dangerous for autocracies.

6. Putin is an opportunist who blackmails the West.

7. He does not need peace, but victory, even if it is a propaganda victory.

It should be added that over the past three years, Moscow has been systematically blackmailing the West with the use of nuclear weapons. Statements by former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and other high-ranking officials demonstrate a systematic rhetoric of intimidation.

The Kremlin does not recognize NATO's right to security and threatens all those who support Ukraine. Russia has already occupied part of Moldova (Transnistria), part of Georgia (Abkhazia, South Ossetia), and large parts of Ukraine. Kremlin propagandists openly talk about territorial claims to the Baltic States, Kazakhstan, and Poland.

Unlimited Claims and Ambitions Can Only Be Stopped by Force

Vitkoff represents a political camp that believes in “peace through concessions.” But Putin perceives such concessions as weakness. History teaches us that an aggressor is not deterred by promises - only force stops him. Unfortunately, so far the West has failed to demonstrate strength to Putin, which only strengthens his desire for new wars and conquests.

Russia's aggression is not a temporary phenomenon, not an emotional reaction, not a response to provocations. It is a deliberate strategy. Putin will not stop in Ukraine, and the statement that he will is a dangerous illusion. The only way to stop the aggression is to increase pressure: economic, military, and political.

The entire current Russian state ideology is imbued with imperialism and encroachment on neighboring states, each of which, from the point of view of official Russian ideology, is “wrong,” and each of which has some “historical claims” to which Russia itself has. It is hard to imagine that these inexhaustible ambitions can be satisfied by some relatively small territorial gains, especially when the Russian leadership sees what it perceives as “Western weakness.” Inconsistency in upholding its own values and fear of confrontation with Russia all contribute to the impression of the West as “easy prey,” which in turn strengthens Russian aggressive intentions.

Similarly, recent statements by the U.S. administration about the transfer of military contingents from Europe to the Far East, as well as doubts about the viability of NATO's common security space, cannot but raise additional ambitions on the part of Russia.

The Russian regime has already proved that it is ready to sacrifice hundreds of thousands of lives of its own citizens for the sake of military operations. And this in itself makes it a very dangerous neighbor. Ignoring this and pretending that the Russian threat to the West does not exist is very reckless.

Petro Oleshchuk, Political scientist, Ph.D, Expert at the United Ukraine Think Tank