Why Trump and Russia Are Fighting for the Northern Sea Route and Why Donald Trump Shows Indecision

The Arctic is becoming a new center of global geopolitics, where Russia and Trump compete for the Northern Sea Route, but the American president’s indecision due to the Chinese factor and domestic risks threatens to turn the U.S. into a marginal player

Just a decade ago, the Northern Sea Route (NSR) seemed an exotic route, suitable only for discussions in naval academies and among climatologists. Today, the situation has changed dramatically. The melting of ice has opened opportunities for regular shipping, and with it, a radical restructuring of the entire logistical architecture between Europe and Asia. Research by Dsnews emphasizes that the Arctic is becoming the “new Persian Gulf” of the 21st century, which will determine not only trade routes but also the balance of power in global politics. While the global economy previously relied on the Suez Canal, Panama, or the Strait of Hormuz, a new route has now joined this club – the Northern Sea Route, controlled by Russia.

Russian Control Over Infrastructure Creates a Monopoly and Political Leverage

Unlike Suez or Panama, where rules are set by international agreements and transit is ensured by multilateral arrangements, the Northern Sea Route has effectively become an internal zone of Kremlin control. Through the Rosatom corporation, Moscow has usurped the right not only to modernize ports but also to control navigation systems, hydrography, and the issuance of passage permits. Ports such as Sabetta, Dikson, Tiksi, Khatanga, and Dudinka, which a decade ago looked like half-forgotten Soviet outposts, are now integrated into a single transport-logistics network. The Kremlin presents this as a “national project,” but in reality, it is about creating a mechanism for strategic blackmail. Any state or corporation wishing to use the NSR will be forced to negotiate with Moscow on its terms. This makes the Northern Sea Route a political trump card, not just an economic resource.

Rare Earth Metals and Arctic Energy Resources Could Become the Kremlin’s New Raw Material Currency

Dsnews research highlights that the Arctic’s significance extends far beyond transport logistics. It is about resources that will define technological competition in the coming decades. Lithium, cobalt, uranium, and rare earth metals are the foundation of the “green economy” and high-tech industry. Control over them means the ability to dictate terms even to the world’s largest corporations. Russia is actively promoting projects for the exploration and extraction of these resources, while simultaneously integrating them into a model of cooperation with China.

The paradigm is simple: Moscow offers Beijing resources and logistics in exchange for investments, and to Europe and the U.S., it offers access in exchange for political concessions. In this context, the Northern Sea Route becomes a kind of “customs of the future,” through which not only goods can be transported but also exchanged for political capital.

Donald Trump Is Caught Between Economic Temptation and Political Risks

Trump’s indecision is explained by the fact that he is forced to balance between attractive economic prospects and enormous political risks. On the one hand, participation in NSR-based projects would open new opportunities for the U.S.: cheaper transportation, access to resources, and a competitive advantage for American businesses. On the other hand, any form of cooperation with the Kremlin in 2025 would mean a direct weakening of the sanctions regime and a blow to the U.S.’s image as Ukraine’s main ally. Congress, the media, and NATO allies would tear apart any agreement that even remotely resembled a concession to Moscow. For Trump, this is a trap: he sees the benefits but understands that their realization would politically destroy him.

China Intensifies the Dilemma, Turning the U.S. into a Bystander

An additional complication is the China factor. Beijing is systematically investing in NSR infrastructure, including through loans for port modernization and icebreaker construction. In Chinese logic, the Arctic is the future “Polar Silk Road,” which is set to become part of the global “One Belt, One Road” initiative. For the U.S., this means that any participation in NSR projects automatically implies cooperation with China. However, Trump, having built his campaign on anti-China rhetoric and tariff pressure on Beijing, cannot afford to align with China in a strategically important region. As a result, America appears superfluous: China and Russia are negotiating among themselves, while Washington remains on the sidelines.

The Kremlin Employs a Tactic of Short Steps and Creates Room for Maneuver

Dsnews researchers note that the Kremlin is not trying to secure long-term agreements immediately. On the contrary, Putin operates with a horizon of a few months, shifting priorities depending on the situation. One moment, he hints at cooperation with the U.S.; the next, he demonstratively strengthens ties with China. This allows Russia to keep partners in a state of uncertainty, forcing them to “compete for the Kremlin’s attention.” For Trump, this means a loss of room for maneuver: he cannot strike a “grand deal” and present it as his own victory. He is left only to react to Moscow’s signals, which appears as weakness.

The Northern Sea Route Becomes a Test of Global Players’ Agency

Ultimately, the struggle for the NSR is not just about economics or logistics. It is a test of strategic agency. Russia demonstrates its ability to create its own rules of the game, even while under sanctions and in a state of war. China uses the situation to establish itself in the Arctic as an investor and future guarantor of route security. The U.S., due to Trump’s indecision, risks becoming a bystander in a game where the stakes are measured not only in money but also in the future of the global balance of power. The Northern Sea Route has become a symbol of how rapidly global geopolitics is changing: yesterday it was a peripheral route, but today it has transformed into an arena where the question of who will dictate the rules in the 21st century is being decided.

Bohdan Popov, Head of Digital at the United Ukraine Think Tank, communications specialist and public figure