Beyond the Obvious: Five Hypothetical Alliances that Could Stop the War
Although some international alliances for Ukraine seem more like geopolitical fantasy today, their implementation, even in a partial format, could radically change the course of the war and bring about a just peace.
At a time when traditional security mechanisms are failing, strategic imagination is not a luxury but a tool for survival. Russia's war against Ukraine has entered a phase of attrition, where not only arms supply from traditional partners play a decisive role, but also Kyiv's ability to build new, non-obvious coalitions. Let's consider five hypothetical but not illogical alliances that could create insurmountable obstacles for the Kremlin.
Strategic Turnaround: Alliance with China
At first glance, this is the least likely scenario due to Beijing's declared “unlimited friendship” with Moscow. However, China's interests are much more complex.
China is the only country in the world capable of influencing the Russian economy without firing a single shot. Even a hint of joining sanctions or restricting purchases of Russian energy resources would force the Kremlin to immediately review its strategy, given Russia's growing economic dependence.
For China, the role of peacemaker, which stopped the biggest war in Europe since World War II, would be a powerful argument in the struggle for global leadership. Analysts at the U.S. Institute of Peace notethat Beijing is in a unique position to put pressure on Moscow, although it has so far refrained from doing so. This would allow Beijing to improve relations with the EU and gain access to Ukrainian resources for post-war reconstruction.
At the same time, potential risks and challenges should also be taken into account. First, China could use its role to promote its own vision of the world order, which is disadvantageous for Ukraine and its Western partners. Second, excessive rapprochement with Beijing could strain relations with the US and the EU, Ukraine's key allies. Third, Beijing could return to supporting Moscow at any moment if it suits its interests, leaving Ukraine in a vulnerable position.
Technological Leap: Military-Technical Pact with India
India, which traditionally maintains close ties with Russia in the military sphere, is gradually diversifying its partnerships in pursuit of great power status.
India is a huge market and a country with a powerful IT sector and military-industrial complex. Cooperation could give Ukraine access to new technologies, particularly in the field of drones and cybersecurity.
In turn, Ukraine possesses technologies that are critical for India, such as in the production of aircraft and marine engines. Joint projects would allow Delhi to reduce its dependence on Russia. There is also potential for cooperation in UN reform and post-war reconstruction.
At the same time, potential risks and challenges should be taken into account. First, historical ties with Russia have created deep inertia in Indian military and political circles, which are oriented toward cooperation with Russia. Second, India avoids formal military alliances, preferring flexible partnerships, which may limit the level of commitment. Third, bureaucratic processes in India can significantly slow down the implementation of any agreements.
Energy and Financial Stronghold: a Coalition with Türkiye and the Persian Gulf Monarchies
Türkiye has already established itself as an important mediator performing a complex balancing act. Combining its influence with the financial resources of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar could create a powerful bloc. The Gulf countries have enormous financial reserves that could be used to support Ukraine. They are also key players in the energy market. For the Gulf countries, Ukraine is a guarantor of food security. The Atlantic Council notes that investment in Ukraine's agricultural sector, logistics, and technology is a strategic step toward diversifying their economies.
At the same time, potential risks and challenges should also be taken into account. First, both Türkiye and the Gulf countries maintain contacts with Russia and could use cooperation with Ukraine as leverage in their relations with Moscow. Second, financial assistance may be linked to political demands that may not be in line with Ukraine's national interests. Third, the escalation of conflicts in the Middle East could instantly change the priorities of these countries.
The Axis of Innovation: a Technological Alliance with Japan and South Korea
These countries, being technological giants, are natural allies in the fight against authoritarian regimes, although they act cautiously.
Cooperation with Tokyo and Seoul could provide Ukraine with access to the latest developments in robotics, AI, and electronics. South Korea is already providing support, albeit of a non-lethal nature. For Japan and South Korea, supporting Ukraine is an investment in the world order. The weakening of Russia, China's key ally, is in line with their long-term security interests, especially against the backdrop of Moscow's strengthening ties with Pyongyang.
At the same time, potential risks and challenges should also be taken into account. First, geographical remoteness. Security in East Asia (threats from China and North Korea) remains a priority for these countries. Second, both countries are vulnerable to economic pressure from China, which may oppose their active support for Ukraine. Third, there are constitutional and legislative restrictions on the provision of lethal military aid.
New Horizons: a Northern Security Alliance and a Coalition of Neutrals
This direction involves formalizing cooperation with countries that already provide significant support and engaging those that have traditionally stood aside.
The Northern Alliance (the Baltic states, the Nordic countries, Poland, and the United Kingdom). These states perceive the Russian threat as existential. The idea of a Baltic-Black Sea Union has historical roots and is gaining new relevance.
The diplomatic front of neutral countries (Switzerland, Austria, Ireland). Russia's violation of international law is a direct threat to the model of existence of neutral countries. Their unification to promote the Ukrainian peace formula and increase sanctions pressure would create a powerful front, changing the traditional understanding of neutrality.
For the “Northern Alliance,” this means strengthening its own security. For neutral countries, it is a chance to protect the international order that guarantees their sovereignty.
At the same time, potential risks and challenges should also be taken into account. First, the creation of regional security alliances could be perceived as undermining the unity of NATO and the EU, which could potentially weaken overall support. Second, despite their political will, neutral countries have limited military resources and face strong internal resistance to any steps that could be seen as drawing them into the war.
The path to a just peace for Ukraine lies through courage — not only on the battlefield, but also in diplomacy. The alliances presented, although they seem unrealistic today, demonstrate that there is room for maneuver. Each of these vectors has its own logic of mutual benefit, which under certain circumstances can outweigh the current geopolitical balance. The task of Ukrainian diplomacy is to seek out these opportunities and turn the “unrealistic” into the “possible.”
These alliances do seem unlikely today. They require a radical rethinking of global ties and overcoming deep historical and political barriers. However, it is precisely in their “impossibility” that their potential for revolutionary impact lies. The implementation of any of them would not only change the balance of power — it would destroy the aggressor's calculations for a prolonged confrontation and isolation of Ukraine.
Each proposed alliance is based not only on Ukraine's needs, but also on the clear national interests of potential partners: economic, technological, energy, and security. The path to peace may lie not only through the battlefield, but also through bold geopolitical combinations that we call fantasy today, but which may become a new reality tomorrow. The search for and promotion of such mutually beneficial models is also a weapon in the war for Ukraine's future.
Ihor Petrenko, founder of the “United Ukraine” Think Tank, Doctor of Political Sciences