Danish Intelligence: Russia Could Attack Europe in Coming Months After End of War in Ukraine

The Danish Defence Intelligence Service has reported that Russia could be ready for a large-scale war in Europe with NATO countries within the next five years after the end of the war in Ukraine, DR News reports. In the report, the agency said it believes it is unlikely that Russia will be able to wage war in Ukraine and simultaneously with one or more NATO countries.

If the war in Ukraine ends or is frozen, Russia could free up significant military resources and potentially attack a neighbouring country within six months, the report said.

According to intelligence estimates:

- in 6 months, Russia will be able to wage a local war in one of the following countries bordering Russia;

- in 2 years, Russia will pose a real threat to one or more NATO countries and thus be ready for a regional war against several countries in the Baltic Sea region;

- in about 5 years, Russia could be ready for a large-scale war on the European continent without the participation of the United States.

Danish intelligence also suggests, based on current threat analysis, that the United States would not participate in such a war with NATO countries. 

To date, no specific Russian plans for a war against a NATO country are evident. However, Russia may be more inclined to attack if it considers the Western military alliance to be weakened, for example, if the United States withdraws its support.

According to the newspaper, the intelligence services of several Northern European countries consider a Russian attack to be the greatest threat to the security of their states.

Without Ukraine, Europe will be totally occupied. This was stated by President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy in an interview with The Guardian. 

 ‘Today, the Ukrainian army consists of 110 combat brigades. This is a lot. Russia has 220 (brigades - ed.), and they will be approaching 250 in 2025. That is, their army is twice as large. The European combat component, taking into account the American component that is present there, is about 82 combat brigades,’ President Zelenskyy said.     

‘If you want to attack, you need your army to be at least one to three. Then there will be an effective offensive and advancement. Without Ukraine, you will realise that Russia has one to three in relation to Europe. And it is very clear what is happening. That is, without Ukraine, Europe will be occupied. Totally occupied. ‘By the Russians. If they want to. And I believe that they have no other idea in their minds. They will want it,’ the Ukrainian president stressed.