Echoes of the "Winter War"
One of the predictable consequences of the beginning of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine by Russian troops was the strengthening of security measures by countries that share a border with Russia. In particular, Finland, which had remained neutral after World War II, promptly applied to join NATO and received a positive and unanimous decision from the Alliance member states to join. The speed of decision-making on Finland's accession to NATO is impressive. Less than a year passed from the moment of application (May 2022) to the actual accession (April 2023). In the recent history of the Alliance, this is a unique case that demonstrates the extremely serious perception of threats from Russia and, at the same time, NATO's readiness to use all military capabilities to counteract the implementation of Russia's aggressive plans for Europe.
After Boris Yeltsin gave up power in Russia and handed it over to KGB officer Vladimir Putin, Russia's official position on NATO returned to the doctrinal provisions of the Soviet era. Since the beginning of the twenty-first century, Russia has been on a path back to the USSR and continues to this day. Putin proclaimed a new anti-Western political doctrine in 2007 at the Munich Security Conference, criticizing the unipolarity of the world and the policies of the United States and NATO toward Russia.
On February 10, 2007, in Munich, the Russian president accused the West, especially the United States, of interfering in Russia's internal affairs and obstructing Russia's foreign policy. He also paid special attention to NATO, emphasizing the inadmissibility of NATO's expansion to the borders with Russia and possible steps by Russia in response to this. A year and a half later, on August 8, 2008, Russia launched a war against Georgia. Six years later, the first full-fledged anti-Western military doctrine, better known as the Gerasimov Doctrine or the Hybrid Warfare Doctrine, appeared, proclaiming the need for an "asymmetric response by the Russian Federation to the threat from the United States and NATO." Seven years later, in 2014, Russia's war against Ukraine began. In March 2019, Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces Valery Gerasimov presented Russia's new defense doctrine ("Gerasimov Doctrine 2.0"), which directly identified the United States and its allies as "aggressors ready to treacherously attack Russia."
Finland, which had experience in the war with the USSR, perceived the Gerasimov Doctrine, announced in the year of the 80th anniversary of the Soviet Union's attack on it, as a direct threat to its security. A threat that is as likely as possible, not theoretical. The so-called "Winter War" of 1939-40 cost Finland a part of the territory that is still occupied by Russia, as the collapse of the USSR did not lead to the return of the occupied lands, just as the Kuril Islands and Königsberg (Królivets in Polish) remained unreturned.
Only due to the long preparation for a possible war with the USSR due to Carl Gustaf Mannerheim's principled patriotic and militaristic position and the construction of defensive structures on the Karelian Isthmus (later called the "Mannerheim Line"), the assault of which was very expensive for the Red Army, did Finland's territorial losses as a result of the war turn out to be relatively insignificant. But they constantly remind Finns of the danger from their "eastern neighbor," which has not diminished in 80 years.
Therefore, behind Finland's rapid abandonment of its neutrality policy and its accession to NATO is a long history of consistent actions by the Finnish establishment to obtain guarantees of security and territorial integrity of their country. Despite the lack of personalization of Finland's current defense strategy, its elite is now behaving like a "collective Mannerheim," and that is why we are not seeing the "Finlandization of NATO," i.e., an increase in the Alliance's neutrality towards Russia's actions, which Russia counted on when it threatened NATO with war in its doctrines, but rather the NATOization of Finland, i.e., its militarization and strengthening of defense and the creation of a more modern security system that will rely on all the Alliance's resources.
Negotiations With a Terrorist Country Make No Sense
Since joining the Alliance, Russia's position on relations with Finland, despite its officially declared indifference, has been full of provocations. As a result, Finland was forced to close its borders to Russians, and now there is only cargo traffic between the countries.
For a long time now, the Russian authorities have been using residents of the Middle East and poorer countries in Africa and Asia, whom they have actually recruited to organize provocations on the border with Finland at its crossing points and subsequently use the photo and video materials of such provocations for their own IPSO.
Thus, since August 2023, 684 citizens of Yemen, Iraq and Somalia, as well as other countries of Africa and the Middle East, have already applied for asylum in Finland. According to the Finnish Border Guard, all migrants entered Finnish territory through Russian border crossings without permits allowing them to cross the EU border.
Their entry into the Russian Federation and further to Finland is coordinated through social networks. In particular, through telegram channels, where users share their experiences in this regard, and the administrators of these publics offer them assistance in crossing the Russian-Finnish border for a certain amount of money. For example, a group called "Information Russia-Finland" (معلومات روسيا فنلندا in Arabic) promises to help with obtaining a visa to Russia and then crossing the border. Because of this, Finland was forced to close virtually all checkpoints on the border with Russia.
This problem was discussed in the European Parliament in Strasbourg, which was attended by both MEPs and representatives of the European Commission and the Council of the EU. The issue of using migrants for provocations at the border and possible further agent work in favor of Russia in the EU countries is of concern to the European establishment. All EU institutions are convinced that the EU needs a unified policy to combat hybrid threats, in particular from Russia, which uses migration as a weapon.
On November 21, MEPs expressed unanimous support for Finland, while emphasizing the importance of protecting the rights and dignity of migrants whose vulnerable situation is exploited by Putin's machine. "We need to protect our borders, but also our values," said European Commissioner for Home Affairs Ylva Johansson. She, like many of the parliamentarians who spoke, called for a joint tough EU response to such challenges.
Russia's provocations once again prove that Putin is not a negotiator and any attempts to reach an agreement with Russia are doomed to Russia's violation of the terms of the treaties. It is impossible to negotiate with a terrorist country.