Expert Explains What to Expect from New Ukraine-Russia Talks

The third round of negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, which will take place on 23 July in Turkey, raises prosaic expectations given the experience of fruitless meetings and the maximalist demands of the Russian side. For Ukraine, it is important to achieve a ceasefire, the release of prisoners of war and the return of civilian hostages, as well as children deported by Russia. There are no illusions about the results of the negotiations, but Ukraine will try to achieve at least humanitarian solutions, said political strategist and head of the Centre for Political Intelligence Oleh Posternak.

The Gaze reports on it, referring to the FREEDOM TV channel broadcast.

"The feelings before the third round are very prosaic. On the one hand, we have experience of fruitless negotiations with Russia. We know perfectly well what positions the Russian Federation is taking, how it is rebuilding its interests and maximalist demands. Therefore, there is a feeling that any subsequent round of negotiations is a continuation on the part of Russia of the theatrical performance that they played well in Minsk, and then several rounds in Istanbul. On the other hand, if Russia makes concessions on the humanitarian track, it is necessary to continue to release Ukrainian prisoners of war and civilian hostages. The return of Ukrainian children deported by Russia is also an important issue," said the speaker.

In his opinion, the Russian Federation may offer Ukraine a partial truce in order to block US President Donald Trump's 50-day ultimatum.

"I admit that the Russian side may do so. It may try to play more conciliatory before the third round in order to create a false impression of its ability to achieve a peaceful settlement. At least before Trump and the countries of the global South, in particular China, India and Turkey. For starters, Russia may offer, for example, a ceasefire at sea. This is certainly even more beneficial to them than to Ukraine. I admit that this may happen," Posternak said.

At the same time, Ukraine will continue to insist that a meeting at the level of the countries' leaders is necessary for a real ceasefire.

"A personal meeting between President Zelensky and dictator Putin is an important component for Ukraine. Although I am very sceptical about the prospects for such a meeting in the near future. After all, the Normandy meeting in December 2019 did not lead to tangible results, but only showed the intransigence, fanaticism, obsession and stubbornness of the Russian delegation, which does not see the objective picture around it. It only builds some kind of propaganda phantom goals, trying to artificially make the Russian people understand that the authorities are protecting the fantastic interests of their state," he emphasised.

At the same time, according to the speaker, Russia will ignore the issue of returning the Ukrainian children it has kidnapped in every possible way.

"For Putin, saying “yes” to the return of Ukrainian children is a slap in the face to his image as an all-powerful, arrogant ruler, a war criminal who does not compromise and pushes through his will. That is why he does not want to and does not wish to do so. But the Ukrainian delegation has no choice but to insist on this. This is our legitimate demand. Russia and Putin have violated, I repeat, international law, Ukrainian law and their own Russian law by carrying out the forced deportation of Ukrainian minors," the political scientist pointed out.

He stressed that only a ceasefire is the main step towards achieving peace in Ukraine.

"The Kremlin's task is to break Trump's 50-day ultimatum, show its failure and simulate the image of a peace-loving country that allegedly seeks peace. Russia wants, at all costs, to show that it has the initiative and can continue to carry out terrorist attacks through increased missile and drone activity against peaceful cities, escalation, the threat of a new offensive, and so on. Plus, Putin continues to be determined to exhaust Ukraine, hoping for a breakthrough on the front, a breakdown in the Ukrainian people's will to resist, and psychological fatigue from the war. This is all about what Putin wants to achieve in the second half of 2025. In fact, a real step towards peace would be a ceasefire. Period," Posternak concluded.

As The Gaze reported earlier, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan met with top Ukrainian officials on Wednesday in Ankara, just hours before a new round of Ukraine-Russia peace negotiations was set to begin in Istanbul.

The third round of negotiations between Ukraine and Russia in Istanbul, Turkey, will take place today, 23 July, at 18:00 Central European Time.