Fortress Europe: How the EU Should Defend Itself in the New Reality
In light of recent geopolitical events, the European Union has faced the need to rethink its role in ensuring peace and security on the continent. U.S. President Donald Trump's flirtation with Russia in the negotiation process over the war in Ukraine and the EU's de facto exclusion from this process create new diplomatic realities. Trump's statements about a possible reduction of the US military presence in Europe and demands to increase European defense spending to 5% of GDP raise questions about the EU's ability to strengthen its defense capabilities on its own and significantly.
Political Will: Time to Act
The issue of the EU's strategic autonomy is becoming increasingly relevant. European countries face a challenge: either to strengthen the common defense system or to remain dependent on NATO in a format dominated by the United States. Many European leaders, including French President Emmanuel Macron, insist on the creation of a single European army, which would allow the continent to have independent armed forces to respond to threats without the need to rely on external partners. At the same time, the lack of a single command center and political mechanisms for rapid decision-making is a significant obstacle to such autonomy.
Trump's statements, in particular his criticism of European allies for insufficient defense spending and possible reduction of US support, create a new reality for Europe. This prompts the EU to take immediate action to strengthen its own security and defense. French President Emmanuel Macron has mentioned that Russia's actions and Trump's policies are pushing Europe to become more independent in ensuring its own security.
Analysts at the Kiel Institute for the World Economy estimate that to counter Russian military power without US support effectively, Europe will have to deploy about 50 additional brigades totaling 300,000 soldiers. This would require at least 1,400 new main battle tanks and 2,000 armored personnel carriers, which is more than the stockpiles of the ground forces of Germany, France, Italy, and the United Kingdom combined.
Defense Financing: Utilizing Available Resources
The European Union is preparing a large-scale package to increase the EU's defense capabilities and support Ukraine, which could reach 700 billion euros. European officials are working on this plan to increase defense spending, despite the risk of political controversy in Germany. These expenditures will be used to purchase military equipment for Ukraine and strengthen the EU's defense capabilities. German Foreign Minister Annalena Burbock said this would be the largest financial package for European security since the euro and pandemic funds were created.
In response to new challenges, the EU is considering a significant increase in defense spending. The creation of a European Defense Investment Program with a €500 billion fund to finance defense projects is being discussed. In addition, the remaining €93 billion of the Pandemic Recovery and Resilience Fund may be redirected to defense needs. However, it is important that these funds are used to develop Europe's own defense industry, not just to purchase weapons from the United States.
According to estimates by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, the EU must raise an additional 250 billion euros annually to finance defense. The common European debt could finance Half of this amount, allowing for economic benefits through joint procurement.
Production Capacity and Raw Material Reserves
Another key problem is the issue of rapid movement of troops and military equipment within Europe. According to military experts, the EU's current transportation infrastructure is not ready to rapidly deploy significant forces to the eastern flank in the event of a potential conflict. Bottlenecks in the transportation network, the lack of military bases and warehouses located closer to potential conflict zones, and complicated bureaucratic border crossing procedures significantly slow down the ability to effectively deploy defense forces. To solve this problem, large-scale infrastructure investments are needed, including strengthening railways, building new logistics centers, and simplifying procedures for military transportation within the EU.
Currently, about 80% of EU defense procurement comes from suppliers outside the Union. This underscores the need to develop its own production facilities and secure the raw material base for the production of weapons and ammunition. Investments in domestic production will not only strengthen defense capabilities, but also contribute to economic growth and technological development.
To achieve self-sufficiency, Europe needs to produce about 2,000 long-range drones annually and significantly increase the production of armored vehicles and artillery systems.
Ukraine's Role: Europe's Shield
With one of the most capable armies in Europe and significant combat experience in modern conflicts, Ukraine plays a key role in ensuring the continent's security. Since the beginning of Russia's full-scale invasion in 2022, the Ukrainian military has managed to stop one of the largest armies in the world, which has become an important factor in deterring Russian expansion. If not for Ukrainian resistance, Russia's aggression could have spread to the Baltic states, Poland, or even destabilized the entirety of Eastern Europe.
The Ukrainian army constantly adapts to the latest warfare conditions, using high-tech drones, long-range artillery, and modern electronic warfare. It receives and effectively uses Western weapons, making it an invaluable partner for European defense structures. Such lessons learned and tactical developments can significantly enhance NATO and the EU's ability to respond quickly to modern threats.
In addition, Ukraine has a significant defense industry potential that can be integrated into the European arms production system. Ukroboronprom's plants produce tanks, armored vehicles, anti-tank missiles, and drones, which have already proven their effectiveness on the battlefield. Joint European-Ukrainian projects in the production of ammunition and military equipment can significantly reduce the EU's dependence on arms imports from outside the continent.
Supporting Ukraine is strategically important for the EU not only in the military but also in the geopolitical context. Ukraine actually serves as an “outpost” to protect democracy from authoritarian regimes and is a natural ally of Europe in deterring Russian imperialism. Every euro invested in helping Ukraine is an investment in the security of the entire EU, because without a strong Ukraine, the threat of war on Europe's borders will only grow.
EU Unity and Readiness to Spend on Defense
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen emphasized that Europe needs a “mentality of urgency” in strengthening its defense. EU leaders, including Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, emphasized that a lack of investment in security now could cost Europe ten times more in the future. At the same time, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte noted that the new defense initiative will include military training, accelerated arms deliveries, and enhanced security guarantees for Ukraine.
In the face of new challenges, the EU must demonstrate unity and determination in strengthening its defense capabilities. Increasing defense spending to 4% of GDP, equivalent to an additional $420 billion per year, will require joint efforts and coordination among member states. It also involves rationalizing defense procurement and developing joint defense projects.
According to a study by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, additional defense spending would amount to only 1.5% of EU GDP, which is a reasonable amount given the economic power of the region. “This is much less than what had to be mobilized to overcome the crisis, for example, during the Covid pandemic,” said Professor Gunthram Wolf, one of the authors of the study.
Assessment of the Russian Threat
Russia uses not only military force, but also actively wages a hybrid war against Europe, using methods of information attacks, cyberattacks, and economic pressure. In particular, in recent years, the number of cyberattacks on the EU's critical infrastructure, including energy facilities, financial institutions, and government websites, has increased dramatically. Disinformation and propaganda are also a powerful weapon used to weaken European unity and spread Euroskeptic, anti-NATO, and anti-Ukrainian sentiment among EU citizens. European countries should develop effective mechanisms to counter such threats, including the establishment of joint cybersecurity centers and increased control over the information space, to prevent hostile destabilization campaigns. Again, the experience of Ukraine, which has achieved significant success in this area, is invaluable. Overall, Europe must recognize that it is already in a state of deep hybrid war with Russia.
The authors of this study stress that Russia has significantly increased its military potential, despite the heavy losses in the war in Ukraine. At the end of 2024, Russia, according to their estimates, had about 700 thousand soldiers in Ukraine. In addition, about 1,550 new tanks and 5,700 armored vehicles were produced in 2024. Russia has also made significant progress in the production of drones and long-range munitions. Improving the production of drones, which previously depended heavily on Iran, is now carried out at its own facilities, increasing the autonomy of the Russian military-industrial complex.
In addition to the ground forces, Russia is actively building up its missile and air capabilities. This includes expanded production of hypersonic missiles, modernization of strategic aviation, and strengthening of naval capabilities in the Black and Baltic Seas. Analysts also note an increase in the rate of mobilization, which allows Russia to compensate for losses and maintain a high level of combat readiness of its armed forces.
These trends are a cause for serious concern among NATO and EU countries. “Russia could have the military power to attack EU countries in the next three to ten years. We have to classify this as a real danger. This is another reason why it is in Europe's interest to prevent Russia from winning in Ukraine,” Wolf emphasized. If Europe does not strengthen its defense capabilities, the risk of Russian aggression against European countries will increase significantly.
Current geopolitical realities require the European Union to take greater responsibility for its own security. This requires political will, significant financial investments, development of internal production capacities, and close cooperation with partners such as Ukraine. Only through unity and decisive action will the EU be able to ensure peace and stability on the European continent.
Ihor Petrenko, Expert at Kyiv-based United Ukraine Think Tank