Hard-Right Turn in EU Elections
The 2024 European Parliament elections de facto kicked off in the autumn of 2023. It's perhaps the earliest start ever. What's behind it? The outcomes of recent national elections in Poland, Slovakia, and the Netherlands. While the first provided fairly interesting and balanced results, the latter two surprised, possibly reinforcing a trend that European political life is shifting rightward, even veering towards the far-right. This development creates opportunities for disrupting the de facto ruling coalition, which has formed for many terms with the participation of the European People's Party and the Party of European Socialists in the European Parliament.
At the end of November, the most represented party in the European Parliament, the European People's Party, conducted its second pre-election campaign this month. In Brussels on November 27, 2023, ministers of social affairs and employment from the European People's Party met under the chairmanship of Karien van Gennip, the Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Social Affairs and Employment of the Netherlands. At first glance, this could be seen as a purely working meeting before the start of the Council for Employment, Social Policy, Health, and Consumer Affairs (EPSCO). However, a small detail clearly signaled the pre-election nature of the event—the participation of the Secretary-General of the EPP, Tassos Bakolas.
The list of issues discussed by the EPP ministers also had a clear pre-election tint. Firstly, they discussed the recent proposal of the European Commission on legal migration. Migration was also discussed concerning the war in the Middle East and its potential consequences for the social cohesion of the EU. The migration theme was at the forefront because an ultra-right populist, Geert Wilders of the Freedom Party, entered the Netherlands Parliament on the wave of this issue, gaining an unexpected number of seats. The weight of the pre-election race was so significant at the EPP meeting that it even seeped into the official communique about the event.
Two weeks earlier, the EPP in Brussels held a meeting of the Political Assembly of the party with a purely pre-election agenda. Under the chairmanship of EPP President Manfred Weber and Secretary-General Tassos Bakolas, delegates discussed the European response to the migration challenge, as well as cooperation between democracies in the world of developing authoritarian states. There was also a discussion on preparing the party for the 2024 European Parliament elections.
But less influential political forces began their moves even a month earlier! In late October, German MEP Terry Reintke announced that she is running for the position of the head of the pan-European "Green" electoral campaign. Reintke has grounds for such a move, as she is already one of the two co-presidents of the Green faction in the European Parliament. The European Greens are expected to nominate two candidates in February, who, based on certain party results in the elections, will receive positions in the European Commission. One of these candidates must be a woman, so Terry Reintke's chances might be quite good, if not for the problems with the declining popularity of the Green Party as such.
After the incredible success in 2019, the Greens are unlikely to maintain, let alone increase, their positions. In particular, POLITICO surveys indicate that if the European Parliament elections were held in November 2023, the Greens would receive significantly fewer seats, only 44 compared to the current 72.
When the next European Parliament elections take place in early June 2024, 705 deputies are to be elected. Three years ago, when there were still representatives from the United Kingdom in the European Parliament, there were 751 deputies. The maximum number, 785 Members of the European Parliament, was specified in 2007 when Romania and Bulgaria joined the EU.
Currently, each EU member state has a minimum of six and a maximum of 96 deputies in the European Parliament. Three centrist parties are de facto united in a coalition controlling 420 parliamentary votes. The upcoming elections may slightly alter this configuration, and in general, they will certainly be a test for everyone, as demonstrated by the somewhat premature start of the race. The list of exam questions is already known, although there may be additions.
Photo: Who is in the European Parliament Structure right now. Source: europarl.europa, Sredina
Right-Wing Challenge
Ultra-right parties, populists, and Eurosceptics will be vying for seats in the European Parliament once again. Among the opposition parties in the European Parliament is a far-right group called "Identity and Democracy" (in French, Identité et démocratie, ID). It entered the ninth assembly of the European Parliament in 2019 for the first time. However, it wasn't the first far-right group – in the eighth assembly, there was the "Europe of Nations and Freedom" group. So "Identity and Democracy" is the successor to the "Europe of Nations and Freedom" group formed during the eighth term. But while "Europe of Nations and Freedom" had 37 seats, "Identity and Democracy" has 60 seats.
Who are the members of the "Identity and Democracy" group? It includes quite familiar political parties from individual countries. These include the French "National Rally" led by Marine Le Pen, the German "Alternative for Germany" (Alternative für Deutschland, AfD), the Freedom Party of Austria (Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs, FPÖ), the Italian League (Lega per Salvini Premier), the Danish People's Party (Dansk Folkeparti, DF) and the Belgian Flemish Interest (Vlaams Belang, VB). It is important to note that the French and Italian parts of the "Identity and Democracy" group account for 18 and 23 seats, respectively, so the "National Rally" and the "League" together control two-thirds of the "Identity and Democracy" group.
And it seems they are hoping for a larger piece of the pie after June 2024. In the wave of the ultra-right surge, amid anti-migrant and Eurosceptic sentiments, this is quite likely. The string of elections, which turned out to be remarkably successful for ultra-right parties, provides grounds to expect their continued presence in the European Parliament. Their presence is unlikely to grow enough to claim coalition formation, but disrupting the nerves of the majority and attempting to gain a presence in the European Commission – why not?
Photo: Poll on voting in the European Parliament elections. Source: Politico
Conditionally Moderates
The "Greens," mentioned earlier, are unlikely to reverse the trend. Yes, there is demand for an ecological agenda, reducing carbon emissions, and restoring biodiversity. However, as revealed in 2021, overly zealous adherence to these principles significantly increases the cost of living. Against the backdrop of rapid inflation in 2022-2023, radically ecological slogans are unlikely to gather a noticeably larger number of supporters. Since the "green" agenda raises prices no less than a money-printing press.
Members of the current coalition – the centre-right European People's Party Group (EPP Group), the centre-left Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D), and the liberal pro-European Renew Europe (Renew) – collectively occupy the political centre and slightly around it. They have different views on migration and other hot-button issues for Europeans. But these views are not radically different. At least, they can reach agreements.
However, members of the current coalition will have to publish their vision for overcoming the migration crisis, as the absence of such a vision could cost them too many votes and, consequently, seats in parliament. Recent anti-Semitic remarks and an increase in illegal migration from countries in the conditional south and east give a clear advantage to the far-right and the simply right. The voter would prefer to see quieter streets and lower social payments for unemployed migrants. In this field, conditionally centrist parties will have to play with tied feet, as harsh rhetoric is not characteristic of them, and competitors will resort to it, as demonstrated in the elections in the Netherlands.
Against the backdrop of the fight against inflation, although the successes in this matter are quite moderate, members of the conditionally centrist coalition have to put something on the table. Regardless of how it turns out, overcoming the economic consequences of COVID-19 that hit Europe three years ago looks good even against the backdrop of inflation. Although European voters do not suffer from a lack of good memory, prices are gradually stabilizing, so there are some grounds for cautious optimism regarding wallets and fridge contents.