Elections in Central Europe: Eurosceptics versus Euro-optimists
The elections in Poland turned out to be both unusual and highly typical among the series of elections held in 2023 in Central European countries. Across the board, the primary issues were the battle between Euro-optimism and Euroscepticism, and the stance on supporting Ukraine in its fight against Russian aggression, which impacts not only itself but its Western neighbors as well. However, in Poland specifically, both political camps were inclined to support Ukraine in its struggle against full-scale Russian invasion.
The parliamentary elections in Poland on October 15 concluded a series of political campaigns in Central European countries this year. In September 2023, parliamentary elections took place in Slovakia. In April, Bulgaria had its parliamentary elections. In January, the Czech Republic held presidential elections in two rounds, but this state is a parliamentary republic. Following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine on April 3, 2022, parliamentary elections occurred in Hungary.
The upcoming elections are in Serbia, where extraordinary parliamentary elections are set to take place along with municipal elections in 65 municipalities, including the capital. Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic and the President of the Serbian Assembly, Vladimir Orlic, announced them on November 1. The previous parliamentary elections in this country took place on April 3, 2022, and were also extraordinary, so the deputies haven't served half of their term. In total, there have been 13 parliamentary elections in the country since 1990, with only three being regular – in 1997, 2012, and 2020.
Vucic has been in the position of president for his second term, serving since 2017. Before that, he held the position of prime minister for three years. Since the end of 2018, there have been protests in the country against Vucic's authoritarian rule, and he skillfully suppresses discontent. In May 2023, this cost many lives of protesters. After the shooting at a Belgrade school and gunfire in Mladenovac and Smederevo in May 2023, large anti-government protests against Vucic's rule took place. As a result, Vucic promised that early parliamentary elections would take place by the end of the year. Now, he has fulfilled that promise.
All this is happening in Serbia against the backdrop of the conflict over Kosovo, which could become a powder keg in the heart of Western Europe.
What about the upcoming elections? In 2025, parliamentary elections are scheduled in the Czech Republic. Presidential elections are expected in Romania in November 2024. Parliamentary elections in this country were supposed to take place in March 2025 according to the schedule, but most likely, they will coincide with the presidential elections at the end of 2024.
PHOTO: Authoritarian populist Aleksandar Vucic, from the presidential chair, campaigns for his Serbian Progressive Party in the parliamentary snap elections in Serbia. SOURCE: vucic.rs
Changes in Poland
Poland is the most populous country in Central Europe, with approximately 38 million inhabitants. It also boasts the largest economy among these countries, with a GDP of $716 billion in 2022.
For the past eight years, the country has been governed by a government formed by the "Law and Justice" party (PiS), which has a nationalist tint, a considerable degree of Euroscepticism, but has genuinely supported Ukraine in its fight against full-scale Russian invasion.
Poland has provided refuge for over a million Ukrainian refugees—more than any other country. It supports Ukraine by supplying weapons and assisting in logistics, although it reacted negatively to increased Ukrainian food supplies to its market in 2023.
Poland's embargo on the import of Ukrainian grain even led to a heated discussion between Brussels and Warsaw in the summer of this year.
The parliamentary elections in Poland also had a certain agrarian hue, as the ruling PiS relied heavily on rural voters, including numerous small farmers. While its opponents focused on the urban electorate. This orientation is primarily characteristic of Donald Tusk and the Civic Coalition (KO) that he leads.
However, Eurosceptics from PiS and Euro-optimists and liberals from KO are united in one aspect—both leaders of the parliamentary race support Ukraine in its struggle against the Russian onslaught. Despite painful points in the past in relations between the two European nations, Poland now sees Ukraine as its closest ally, preventing the Russian threat from materializing in Warsaw and Central Europe as a whole.
PiS's not-so-modern positions on European liberal values have led to the party losing its majority in the current elections. While it retained the most seats—194 out of 460 in the lower house, the Sejm—PiS secured 35.38% of the votes.
The Civic Coalition, led by Tusk, garnered 30.70% of the votes. The centre-right party "Third Way" (Trzecia Droga Polska) claimed the third position with 14.40%, and the "New Left" (Nowa Lewica) received 8.61%. The far-right Confederation (Konfederacja Wolność i Niepodległość) got 7.16%.
As both the "Third Way" and the "New Left" oppose PiS, they have already entered into negotiations with Tusk's political force to form a parliamentary coalition. Together, KO, the "Third Way," and the "New Left" will have 248 seats in the Sejm, enough to create a fairly stable coalition government.
The new parliamentary coalition will have even more robust positions in the upper house—the Senate. After the elections, PiS lost more than a quarter of its seats in the Senate, securing 34 senators. The coalition of opposition political forces can count on a total of 66 seats in the Senate, with KO surpassing PiS by obtaining 44 seats in the upper house.
What's Next in Polish Politics? President Andrzej Duda, a supporter of PiS, declared before the October 15th vote that he would grant the right to form a cabinet to the group or party securing the most votes. However, the far-right Confederation, which garnered 7.16% of the votes, appears to be the only feasible partner for PiS. Consequently, the election leader lacks the strength to establish a parliamentary coalition. Hence, the nationalist PiS party, led by Jarosław Kaczyński, is unlikely to secure a third term as the ruling party in the largest Eastern European country within the European Union.
Donald Tusk, immediately after the announcement of results on October 17th, called on President Andrzej Duda to take the necessary steps to form a coalition government: "I earnestly appeal to the President. People expect the first decisions resulting from these elections, so I would ask the President to make energetic and prompt decisions."
And this didn't happen even after 3 weeks of voting. Finally, on Monday, November 6, President Andrzej Duda announced that he grants the right to form a government to the incumbent Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, who represents the party that received the most votes in the new Sejm but has so far failed to create a parliamentary majority – PiS.
It is most likely that based on Duda's decision, Morawiecki's government will operate for another month, and then it will still have to hand over the initiative to form a government to the opposition coalition, which has gathered around the Civic Coalition and its leader Donald Tusk. However, this month will allow the current government to nominate its candidate for the crucial leadership position at the Financial Supervision Office of Poland. The coming weeks are also expected to be decisive for the approval of the state budget and tax changes that will take effect in 2024.
What's the verdict on the Polish elections, which had the highest voter turnout since 1989 – 74.4%? These elections put an end to the expansion of Russian influence in Central European countries.
Different Perspectives in Slovakia and Hungary?
Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orbán clearly marked his pro-Russian stance with his visit to Beijing in mid-October. He met with Russian President Vladimir Putin on the eve of the summit dedicated to the 10th anniversary of China's "One Belt, One Road" initiative, a global infrastructure program initiated by China. This is the same program that the EU and the US introduced an alternative to last month. During the G20 leaders' summit in Delhi, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced the project for a maritime and railway transport corridor.
The meeting with Orbán allowed Putin to meet with the leader of the European Union state for the first time since the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for the Russian president in March 2023. Putin is accused of war crimes, including the forced deportation of Ukrainian children.
Orbán has been in power in Hungary since 2010, and in the spring of 2022, his Fidesz party won the elections again. Orbán has proclaimed himself a supporter of "illiberal" Christian democracy; he maintains warm relations with Putin despite Russia's almost two-year war against Ukraine. He confirmed the continuation of cooperation with the Russian state nuclear energy company "Rosatom," which has permission to build two nuclear reactors in Hungary.
Orbán has already received a strong reaction from US Ambassador to Hungary David Cornstein, who, in a post on X (formerly Twitter), stated that Hungary is "alone among our allies" in choosing to side with "a man whose forces are responsible for crimes against humanity in Ukraine."
As for Slovakia, Robert Fico, whose political force gained the most votes on September 30th, has begun to form a coalition government. He held the position of prime minister three times, most recently in 2018, when he resigned due to a high-profile corruption scandal and the associated murder of a local investigative journalist.
Fico and his party signed a coalition agreement on October 15th to form a new government. It is already known that this government will begin reducing the excessively high state budget deficit and decrease support for Ukraine. However, Fico's moves toward a pro-Russian course are unlikely to be too active, as the state budget is heavily dependent on EU support.
PHOTO: Robert Fico kept his promise—his government halted state arms deliveries to Ukraine from Slovakia on November 8, although he promised not to obstruct deliveries by private companies. SOURCE: SMER SD
Bulgaria and Romania Tread Cautiously
Both countries, to the best of their abilities, are supporting Ukraine, although their leaders refrain from overly aggressive rhetoric against Russia. Romania is efficiently facilitating the transit of Ukrainian export cargo through the Danube port infrastructure. The country has also allowed the transit of ships from Ukrainian ports around Odessa through its territorial waters. There is also information about the transshipment of Ukrainian export cargo onto more powerful vessels in Romanian waters.
Bulgaria was among the key suppliers of ammunition to Ukraine at the beginning of Russia's full-scale invasion, despite the traditionally warm relations between Sofia and Moscow. Prime Minister of Bulgaria, Nikolay Denkov, is steering the course towards joining the Schengen area and, more broadly, towards deeper Eurointegration.
A former scientist and member of the "We Continue the Changes" party, Denkov became the new Prime Minister of Bulgaria on June 6, 2023, after the parliament approved a coalition government formed by rival political forces GERB/United Democratic Forces and "We Continue the Changes"/Democratic Bulgaria. This coalition is currently overseeing systemic changes in border control management, a low state budget deficit, inflation reduction, and the initiation of the "campaign against disinformation about Bulgaria's transition to the euro."
Certainly, Russia will attempt to maintain its influence over the vulnerable links in the EU. It may even try to strengthen that influence. The disintegration of the EU and NATO is a strategic goal of Russian foreign policy. Orban's visit to Beijing is also about that. However, pragmatic pro-European forces are helping to preserve and strengthen the integrity of the European Union, as well as the Eastern flank of NATO.
Regardless, the geopolitical crisis triggered by Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine has illuminated the real motives and interests of the Kremlin. The level of the Russian threat, as well as the threat posed by several autocratic regimes, has become evident to those who had not yet dared to perceive these phenomena as key global challenges.