Netherlands Shifts to the Right

The tough and, at times, dirty pre-election parliamentary campaign in the Netherlands has concluded somewhat unexpectedly. The far-right Freedom Party (PVV), led by ultraright populist Geert Wilders, secured the highest number of votes in the snap elections. However, this doesn't guarantee him the prime minister's seat automatically. Although he stands a chance. The shift of liberal and progressive Netherlands towards the far right is a surprising development. The Netherlands is likely to face a months-long rally in forming a new government due to the diverse composition of the elected parliament. In the meantime, Mark Rutte's caretaker government will manage the country. If the majority formation rally fails, another snap election will be announced. Rutte has a chance to stay in office until 2025 March, the originally planned date for the next elections.

The voting took place on November 22, 2023, one and half years earlier than scheduled, triggered by the resignation of Mark Rutte's cabinet, his fourth tenure. Rutte stepped down in July due to disagreements over migration policy. Moreover, Rutte left politics, and his former party, the conservative People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD), was led in the elections by Dilan Yesilgoz-Zegerius. Since January 2022, she served as the Minister of Justice and Security in Rutte's government.

Geert Wilders' victory was propelled by his robust anti-migrant and anti-Muslim rhetoric, leading to a decisive win. His rhetoric was so powerful that he even received police protection due to reactions from migrant communities. So, has the victor gotten everything? Not quite.

Why is it so challenging?

As of the morning of November 24, with unofficial but almost 100% of the polling stations reporting, it became clear that the PVV, with the largest number of future parliament seats, would secure 37 seats. To form a coalition, it needs to recruit at least 76 votes from various parties. The problem lies in the fact that the minimum electoral threshold in Dutch parliamentary elections is 1 seat. This means a party can get less than a percentage of the voters' support and still enter parliament. Therefore, although the elections appear to be based on party lists, the parliament composition is exceptionally diverse.

Therefore, it's more interesting to look at those who formed the coalition, the basis of Rutte's previous government. This includes the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD, or Rutte's party, 24 seats), Democrats 66 (D66, 9 seats), Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA, 5 seats), and Christian Union (CU, 3 seats). The sum for all four should be 41 seats if they agree to cooperate again. By the way, in the 2021 elections, this quartet formed a coalition, receiving 34, 24, 15, and 5 seats, totaling 78 seats. This is 2 seats more than the minimum needed for a majority.

However, last time, the government formation rally took 299 days, from March 2021, when the elections took place, to January 2022. The majority of the four political parties in the previous elections formed a relatively stable coalition. It's not possible now. Another detail is that the country was governed by Rutte's government throughout this time, the third in succession. In other words, stability and continuity were maintained throughout.

PHOTO: The Dutch electoral system opens the way for the smallest political parties but complicates the formation of a government. Source: NOS

Coalition Named After Wilders Faces Off Against the Coalition of Six

Far-right populist Geert Wilders will be compelled to seek alliances with other, possibly less powerful, parties and blocs. The question is—with whom?

The second-largest in parliament is a political force called GroenLinks–PvdA (GL/PvdA), an alliance between the Green Party (GroenLinks) and the Labour Party (PvdA). This alliance secured 25 seats, eight more than in the previous elections. How likely is it that this bloc will form an alliance with the far-right Freedom Party (PVV)? Ideologically, they are too different.

But will the GL/PvdA alliance join the coalition of the VVD-D66-CDA-CU foursome? There is also no complete certainty, as after the 2021 elections when the Green Party and the Labour Party ran separately, a scandal erupted over leaked information during coalition negotiations. This scandal prevented the Greens and Labour from joining the coalition foursome.

Nevertheless, the probability of the alliance joining the foursome is quite high. If so, they will have 66 seats in total. Ten votes short, each of which could cost the coalition a lot if negotiating with smaller players becomes necessary.

But there's another party with an impressive number of votes, a party that participated for the first time in the elections and secured 20 seats, ranking fourth. This is the New Social Covenant Party (NSC), which separated from the Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA) after the 2021 elections. NSC's founder, Peter Omtzigt, was a member of parliament more than once and held a significant position in the CDA. He left due to internal party disputes, so the motivations for NSC to join the liberal-Christian coalition are twofold—one "for" and the other "against."

The memory of the tough 2021 coalition formation rally and subsequent internal party disputes plays against NSC's entry into a coalition with Christians and liberals. But joining this coalition could enhance NSC's political influence. It's "for'.

Simultaneously, there is the perspective that this newcomer party, for a powerful start, might dare to form a coalition with the Freedom Party, given its greater weight in such an alliance. Of course, 57 seats are not enough for the Freedom Party and NSC to create a majority, so they will have to look for more. And very carefully.

So, if the coalition of six, VVD-D66-CDA-CU-GL/PvdA-NSC, forms, it will be quite powerful and numerically significant. If not, expecting a long life for the new government will be challenging.

The Migrant Question

The issue of migration policy led to the government's resignation. This matter will significantly impact the potential formation of a coalition around the Freedom Party. Currently, the situation does not look very promising for them because major parties among the possible members of the coalition of six are unlikely to embrace such a radical ally. Therefore, the Freedom Party will likely seek allies among smaller parties.

Presumably, the Freedom Party will try to negotiate with the Farmers' Citizens' Movement (BBB), which secured 7 seats and is considered a right-wing and agrarian movement. However, BBB holds relatively moderate positions on Euroscepticism and migrants.

Even if, hypothetically, the Freedom Party manages to attract not only the Farmers' Citizens' Movement but also the New Social Covenant Party (NSC), this coalition will have only 63 votes. Therefore, the Freedom Party must either become considerably more moderate for coalition-building or look for allies among even smaller parties, although there are simply no right-wing ones there. Well, counting on the Party of Animals is not very likely, given the respect it commands.

But if the Freedom Party tries to become significantly more moderate to form a coalition, it will somehow blur its political prospects. Its voter base is strongly agitated by the influx of illegal migrants, and not everyone likes legal migrants either. It's no secret that the powerful Muslim diaspora creates some discomfort for the Dutch, which led to the triumph of the Freedom Party in the elections. Recent actions in support of Hamas that swept through Western Europe have added votes to the Freedom Party and other less radical supporters of migrant restrictions.

In this sense, the example of the right Farmers' Citizens' Movement (BBB) is quite characteristic. This party agrees to support the placement of refugees fleeing wars but believes it's better for them to be assisted closer to their region of origin rather than encouraging migration specifically to the Netherlands. BBB thinks that most refugees should return home after the conflict from which they were forced to flee is resolved.

Migrants, according to BBB, should learn the Dutch language, work, and pay taxes in the Netherlands for at least five years before obtaining the right to permanent residence. And illegal migrants should be deported. If this set of ideas is applied to specific groups of migrants, it's easy to notice that Ukrainian women and children are welcome, while young, uneducated unemployed men from Africa and the Middle East are not.

PHOTO: Protest against Geert Wilders and his party directly on the day of voting. Source: Getty Images

Who is Geert Wilders, and What Does He Signal?

The Freedom Party and its leader, Geert Wilders, will likely have to compromise on their nationalist and anti-immigrant views to some extent for the sake of coalition-building, as he aspires to the position of Prime Minister. While he aims for the role of prime minister to advocating to immigration control.

Geert Wilders is often dubbed a supporter of former U.S. President Donald Trump and the pro-Russian Prime Minister of Hungary, Viktor Orban. Like Orban, Wilders opposes providing military aid to Ukraine.

As mentioned earlier, Wilders openly opposes Islam and supports a referendum on EU withdrawal. His Euroscepticism is boundless. However, after the elections, he is unlikely to adhere strictly to his pre-election slogans, on the migrant issue too.

Moreover, among legal migrants to the Netherlands, approximately 64% last year had European origins, including a quarter who arrived from Ukraine (around 50 thousand people, significantly fewer than those went to Germany or Poland).

It's worth noting that these are the last significant national elections in EU countries before the pan-European elections to the European Parliament and France Parliament Elections in June 2024. The agenda for the European Parliament elections will likely remain the same—Euroscepticism, immigration restrictions, inflation, and the "green transition" and its cost for ordinary citizens.

The resurgence of the Freedom Party after many challenging years is largely a result of ruling parties repeatedly failing to address these issues over several terms. The agenda over the past decade has changed only minimally, except for the factor of the major war in Europe due to Russian aggression. The electorate, displeased with the "old" and "respectable" parties, expressed its serious dissatisfaction.