Insincere but Deep Concern over Israel's Counterattacks

The Israeli military continues to target leaders of the terrorist organisation Hezbollah and its weaponry, which have been actively attacking Israel from Lebanese territory over the past 12 months. This Hezbollah activity follows the Hamas attack on Israeli towns near the Gaza Strip, the mass killings of Israelis in that area, and the capture of over 200 hostages. In response to Israel's destruction of Iranian proxy missile launchers in southern Lebanon, several world leaders have called on Israel to cease fire and engage in negotiations with the terrorists.

Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati's speech on 25 September in New York is particularly striking. He insists on an immediate ceasefire, seemingly to prevent the completion of Israel’s operation against the Hezbollah group, which is supported by Iran. It's worth noting that Mikati's interim government includes ministers elected from Hezbollah, a group that wields significant influence in Lebanon, not so much for political reasons but rather due to its powerful military organisation, which is primarily armed by Russia and Iran.

However, Mikati did not express protest following the killing of six hostages whose bodies were discovered by the Israeli army in tunnels in the Gaza Strip at the beginning of September, which marked an escalation. Instead, he mentioned in his Facebook account “persistent efforts to stop the continuous Israeli aggression in Lebanon and achieve a resolution to end the conflict that has been ongoing since 7 October (2023 – The Gaze)." His stance suggests he holds Israel responsible for the consequences of the massive terrorist attack on Israeli towns on 7 October last year.

The situation appears to be that Najib Mikati's profound concern stems primarily from fears that, after a series of airstrikes targeting Hezbollah’s military leaders and rocket installations, Israel might resort to a ground invasion. The sequence of events began in early September with the shocking discovery of the hostages' bodies, followed by a series of rocket strikes from southern Lebanon on northern Israel. On 19 September, a massive series of explosions targeted electronic devices used by Hezbollah terrorists. Subsequently, Israel launched airstrikes on Hezbollah’s military targets in southern Lebanon. By the beginning of this week, Israel had extended its attacks further north into central Lebanon, where Hamas military group members and their stockpiles of weapons had sought refuge. This series of airstrikes is considered the most intense since the Lebanese war of the mid-1970s. The leaders of major powers appear to be more concerned about this escalation than they were about the ongoing bombardment of northern Israel over the past 12 months, which forced about 70,000 Israelis to relocate southwards to escape the rockets.

How are the global powers responding? "The situation between Lebanon and Israel since 8 October 2023 is intolerable and poses an unacceptable risk of a broader regional escalation... we call for an immediate 21-day ceasefire across the Lebanon-Israel border to provide space for diplomacy towards the conclusion of a diplomatic settlement," reads a joint statement from the United States, France, Germany, the EU, and several other allies. Notably, the initiators included countries such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates. This joint statement was the outcome of lively discussions on the issue held at the UN on 25 September.

It's important to highlight that the joint statement also addresses a ceasefire in Gaza, particularly because the past 12 months of diplomatic efforts by Israel to secure the release of hostages held by Hamas have been fruitless. Moreover, as mentioned earlier, four weeks ago, Hamas sent a clear message by allowing Israelis to find the bodies of several murdered hostages. This may explain Israel's response to calls for negotiations on halting hostilities in Lebanon.

Benjamin Netanyahu had not commented on these calls by midday on 26 September, while ultra-right Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich stated, "...the enemy must not be given time to recover from the heavy blows it has received and reorganise to continue the war after 21 days (of the proposed temporary ceasefire)." All this occurs following Hezbollah’s launch of 45 rockets at northern Israel on the night of 25-26 September, after the ceasefire proposals were made.

It is important to note that attacks by Iranian proxies are particularly significant against the backdrop of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s announcements about expanding the grounds for potential nuclear strikes against countries supporting Ukraine in its struggle against Russian aggression. These two tracks—the attacks by Iranian proxies on Israel and Russia's aggressive war in Ukraine—are closely linked through deep military-political and economic ties between Tehran and Moscow.