Iran-Israel War Could Cut Missile Supplies to Russia
The recent outbreak of hostilities between Iran and Israel may have significant consequences for Russia’s war effort in Ukraine, as Tehran is now expected to prioritize stockpiling its own missile arsenal over supplying weapons to Moscow, Western officials say, The Gaze reports, citing The Telegraph.
According to a senior NATO official, Iran’s direct confrontation with Israel is likely to “negatively impact Iran’s future donations, specifically missiles,” indicating that ballistic missile deliveries previously promised to Russia could be halted or reduced. Tehran may now shift focus to reinforcing its own military readiness amid growing regional instability.
The loss of Iranian missile support would force Russia to either ramp up domestic production or seek additional supplies from alternative partners, such as North Korea. Western intelligence also suggests that Iran may scale back its assistance in co-producing Iranian-designed drones, like the Shahed one-way attack UAVs. However, Moscow’s capacity to manufacture these drones domestically has lessened its reliance on Tehran in this area.
Earlier in 2025, Russia and Iran had formalized an agreement for Tehran to provide ballistic missiles to support Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. The two countries, increasingly aligned against the West, also signed a broader defense pact aimed at strengthening military ties.
With Iran’s air defenses recently targeted by Israeli airstrikes, Russia is expected to seize the opportunity to promote its S-400 surface-to-air missile systems as alternatives. Russian intelligence operatives may also be deployed to Tehran to analyze data from Israeli F-35 missions over Iran, according to NATO sources.
Meanwhile, Ukraine’s Defence Minister Rustem Umerov stated that a direct meeting between President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Vladimir Putin may be required to achieve any breakthrough in ceasefire negotiations. Although Ukraine had previously insisted on a 30-day ceasefire before high-level talks, Umerov hinted at a shift in approach during the NATO summit in The Hague.
“We could achieve some agreements on a ceasefire during this time,” he said, referring to the potential summit between the two leaders.
Read more on The Gaze: What does the New Conflict Between Iran and Israel Mean for Ukraine?