Italians Grasp the Causes of War and Threats
Italy, typically seen as a vacation destination and museum country, is now under international attention due to the wars in Ukraine and Gaza. These geopolitical turbulences might turn Italy into a focal point of events, but how the Italians perceive their country's new role remains a question.
Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni of Italy had another phone conversation with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on November 15, following their meeting a month ago in Granada during the European Political Community summit. Meloni reaffirmed the consistent support of the Italian government for achieving a fair, robust, and comprehensive peace. President Zelensky expressed gratitude to the Prime Minister and the Italian government for their effective support of Ukraine's institutions and people. So, while the Italian government actively backs Ukraine's struggle for integrity and independence, what about the Italians themselves?
Supportive but Somewhat Unaware
Overall, Italians strongly support Ukraine in its fight. However, the challenge lies in the fact that Italians don't fully grasp what Ukraine is fighting against and why this war is happening in the first place. Italian sentiments are significantly influenced by television, propaganda, and expert opinions. For over a year, from February 24, 2022, until the start of the Israeli-Palestinian war, almost all news broadcasts on national Italian channels began with updates on the war in Ukraine.
Why? Because Italians perceived the events as a real threat, given the vivid memories of World War II. However, being inherently democratic, Italians sought to understand what was happening. They invited experts, sought opinions from different sides, especially considering Italy's sizable Ukrainian diaspora—Ukrainians who have long been working in Italy. This group had the opportunity to provide information firsthand.
But, of course, this was not enough. Additionally, Russian propaganda worked through cross-border media. As a result, a significant portion of Italians believes that the war in Ukraine is due to separatism and the desire of eastern regions to unite with Russia, hindered by the Ukrainian state. This message, consistently loaded into the European information space by pro-Russian sources over the past eight years, was actively discussed in Italian media and various talk shows.
All these discussions last year took place against the backdrop of a significant rise in gas prices and the increasing cost of heating, pushing average Italians into a state close to panic. Some Italian politicians exploited these sentiments. However, Giorgia Meloni, who took office as prime minister on October 22, 2022, proved to be quite firm in responding to suggestions of possible agreements, stating, "Russia's violation of the borders of the sovereign European country Ukraine is unacceptable and violates the principles of the European Union. We cannot accept this."
Getting this message across to average Italians, alarmed by gas prices, remains a challenge.
Photo: Giorgia Meloni states, "Russia's violation of the borders of the sovereign European country Ukraine is unacceptable and goes against the principles of the European Union. We cannot accept this." Source: Twitter, Giorgia Meloni
Something About Money
The average income of Italians ranges from 1200 to 1500 euros per month. Migrant salaries, on average, are half that of Italians, except for qualified foreign specialists working under contract, who earn salaries comparable to Italians.
The economy, which suffered significantly due to COVID-19, is gradually recovering in Italy. In September 2023, employment increased, and inactives decreased. According to the National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT), employment in September increased to 61.7% (+0.1 percentage points from the previous month). Compared to September 2022, the number of employed increased by 2.2% (+512,000). However, Italy "performed better than Germany but worse than France and Spain, and its (economy) may slow down in the coming months," according to the monthly report from ISTAT.
Why so much about the economy in this text? Because people's moods influence politics, and politicians believe that at least some of Italy's economic problems stem from the war in Ukraine and the "tragic conflict in the Middle East." "Energy markets seem more vulnerable," and "new energy supply disruptions could potentially have a significant impact on energy prices, global production, and overall price levels," said EU Commissioner for Economy Paolo Gentiloni, presenting the EU's autumn economic forecast.
Photo: Euro Commissioner for Economics Paolo Gentiloni, presenting the EU's autumn economic forecast, declares that Italy's economic challenges and uncertainties are at least partially due to the war in Ukraine and the "tragic conflict in the Middle East." Source: Twitter, Paolo Gentiloni
Turning Attention to the Middle East
Today, the conflict in Ukraine has taken a back seat for Italians, with the focus shifting to the war in the Gaza sector and surrounding areas. In a curious twist of fate, Italy finds itself grappling with a new wave of refugees from Africa and the Middle East. Ships carrying migrant-irregulars have surrounded the island of Lampedusa, and these refugees have not only occupied local shelters but prisons as well.
Italy, owing to its geographical location, has long been a transit route for a substantial number of refugees heading to Europe. Italians have historically approached migrants with a degree of humanity, often sharing success stories of refugees who learned the language, mastered a profession, and contributed to Italy's GDP. However, this autumn, following the increased activity of the Russian Wagner Group in Africa and Hamas's assault on Israel, illegal refugees overwhelmed Lampedusa to a degree where tackling the situation independently became challenging for the Italians.
The stance of the Italian government on illegals, particularly from Meloni, has been unyielding: all migrants arriving illegally will face arrest and deportation.
This sparked fierce criticism from the opposition, raising the specter of a political crisis. However, as conflict erupted in Israel, new concerns arose for Italy, prompting contemplation on how this war would impact gas and petrol prices and the intensity of the refugee influx.
Regarding the crisis in the Middle East, Italy's Minister of Foreign Affairs, Antonio Tajani, on behalf of the government, advocated for the necessity of political and economic isolation of Hamas, stating, "We must prevent it from causing harm, reduce its funding, and curb the rise of antisemitism in Europe and worldwide."
Despite these developments, Italy hasn't forgotten the war in Ukraine, especially considering the serious concerns of Baltic countries and former Soviet states, now EU members — Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia. Meloni tirelessly emphasizes the importance of continued support for Ukraine, reiterating that attacking other countries is unacceptable and contradicts European values. This time, Meloni faces less criticism for this stance, as any war on the continent inevitably leads to an increase in refugees.
Ukrainian Refugees and Ukrainians in Italy
Estimates suggest that approximately 230,000 to 250,000 Ukrainians reside in Italy, holding Ukrainian citizenship. As of summer 2023, there were 173,000 Ukrainian refugees, over 90,000 of whom are women, and around 50,000 minors accepted by Italy since the onset of Russia's full-scale invasion.
Those in contact with Ukrainians in Italy confirm that refugees from 2022-2023 and Ukrainian migrant workers, who have been in Italy for years, are distinct groups. Many who fled shelling in early 2022 and initially viewed life in Italy as temporary have returned to Ukraine, though not always to their homes.
Those who remain in Italy, primarily women with or without children, actively strive to adapt, learn the language, and seek employment. For them, Italy is a conscious choice, albeit possibly a temporary one, as victory in the war is unlikely to be swift. Additionally, payments to Ukrainian refugees are relatively small by European standards: the state provides 300 euros for three months and doesn't guarantee accommodation or meals. Humanitarian organizations may offer housing and food, but their programs come with stringent conditions on mobility and residence.
However, opportunities for Ukrainians in Italy, especially in service sectors like trade, tourism, and medicine, do exist. Some major retail chains are interested in officially employing Ukrainian women, as Italian women are reluctant to take up such jobs, and employers aren't keen on candidates from Africa or Asia.
Simultaneously, the employment of Ukrainian refugees by Italian companies remains uncertain due to unclear and ambiguous interpretations of the right to reside in Italy. The official document granting Ukrainian war refugees the right to live in Italy (permesso di soggiorno) is valid only until December 31, 2023. Despite the EU's decision to extend it until the end of the war, Italy has yet to enact the corresponding act. As a result, major company owners are hesitant to open official vacancies for Ukrainians, unsure if the employee will stay, as permesso di soggiorno cannot be converted into a work permit (permesso di lavoro). Employers also fear the worker might be compelled to return, although numerous examples and "ways to resolve the issue" exist.
Meloni's Personal Life, Pranksters, and Ratings
Even Meloni's staunch stance on Ukraine couldn't deflect attention from the challenges in her personal life. In October, all of Italy held its breath as she separated from her long-time partner and father of her child, Andrea Giambruno.
However, beyond family troubles, Meloni suddenly fell victim to Russian pranksters Vladimir Kuznetsov (Vovan) and Alexey Stolyarov (Lexus). They claimed responsibility for a call to her, posing as the head of the African Union Commission. Supposedly, in this conversation, Meloni confessed that everyone was tired of the war in Ukraine. Various sources translated this quote differently, framing it as a withdrawal of support for Ukraine, but both the government and the premier denied it. Furthermore, frequent phone conversations between Volodymyr Zelensky and Giorgia Meloni confirm her intention to continue support.
Whether this intention will be upheld by the government will become clear quite soon. Let's recall how the rhetoric of the then-Prime Minister Draghi changed after visiting the recently liberated Bucha in 2022. The visibly shaken head of the government immediately dismissed discussions about the possibility of ending the war through negotiations, or more precisely, agreements favoring Russia.
It's worth noting that, according to polls by Quorum/YouTrend regularly conducted for Sky TG24 media corporation, 36% of Italians positively evaluated Meloni's government after a year of its operation, although negative assessments were significantly higher at 57%.
Italians consider the most valuable ministers in her government to be Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani (34%), Defense Minister Guido Crosetto (31%), and Economy Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti (31%).
According to the latest polls, public opinion about Meloni's government has improved, and voters' trust in the prime minister has grown.
The premier has repeatedly stated that her actions aiming to improve the lives of Italians won't yield quick results because it's a deliberate policy. As Italians say: "piano-piano" (slowly but surely). However, the positive outcome anticipated by citizens and non-citizens in Italy could be lasting and strong, so an increase in support for Meloni's policies on the war in Ukraine can be expected.