Karol Nawrocki Elected President of Poland in Tight Runoff, Signaling Conservative Resurgence and Policy Shift on Ukraine

Karol Nawrocki, a historian and head of Poland’s Institute of National Remembrance, has won the country’s presidential runoff in a razor-thin race that may reshape Poland’s domestic trajectory and its foreign policy, particularly toward Ukraine.

The Gaze reports on this with reference to RMF24.

Backed by the opposition Law and Justice (PiS) party, Nawrocki secured 50.89% of the vote, narrowly defeating Rafał Trzaskowski, the pro-European mayor of Warsaw and candidate of the governing coalition, who received 49.11%. 

The final margin was fewer than 370,000 votes out of more than 20 million cast, with voter turnout reaching 71.63% – one of the highest levels since the end of communist rule.

Though the Polish presidency holds limited executive power in a parliamentary system, Nawrocki’s win is widely seen as a symbolic comeback for the nationalist-conservative Law and Justice party, which lost control of government in 2023. 

His campaign leaned heavily on themes of patriotism, identity, and resistance to what PiS and its allies describe as “liberal overreach” from Brussels. The win was welcomed by like-minded European leaders, most notably Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who called Nawrocki’s election the beginning of a “conservative renaissance” across Europe.

Perhaps most consequentially, Nawrocki’s election signals a potential policy realignment in Poland’s stance toward Ukraine. In the days before the runoff, Nawrocki courted the far-right electorate by endorsing key demands from Sławomir Mentzen, leader of the ultra-nationalist Confederation party. In a signed declaration, Nawrocki pledged to oppose Ukraine’s accession to NATO and refused to support sending Polish troops to Ukraine.

Trzaskowski, in contrast, explicitly rejected those demands, positioning himself as a firm supporter of Ukraine’s Euro-Atlantic aspirations and a critic of appeasement toward Russia.

While Nawrocki’s comments may have been tactical, aimed at mobilizing Mentzen’s and far-right candidate Grzegorz Braun’s voter bases, they have alarmed policymakers in Kyiv and Brussels, who fear Warsaw’s role as a regional pillar of support for Ukraine may begin to erode.

Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, Andriy Yermak, has called for renewed unity between Ukraine and Poland in the aftermath of Poland’s elections. In a symbolic gesture, Yermak invoked the words of Polish national hero Józef Piłsudski to highlight the historical bond: “In suffering for freedom, the Lithuanian, the Ukrainian, and the Pole become brothers.” “This is not just a historical reflection, but a moral imperative for modern Europe,” Yermak added, signaling Kyiv’s hopes for continued strong partnership with the new Polish leadership.

Read more on The Gaze: Ukraine a Major Topic in Polish Presidential Debate