Kremlin May Announce New Mobilisation Due to Shortage of Soldiers at Kursk

A worsening shortage of soldiers for the war against Ukraine is prompting Russia to raise recruitment bonuses to avoid a repeat of the unpopular mobilisation. So far, however, there are few signs that this is working.

Bloomberg reports that.

According to three anonymous sources close to the Kremlin and Russia's defence ministry, the army is not getting enough new soldiers to cope with frontline casualties, which are at their highest since the invasion began in February 2022. Regional officials are now, on average, failing to meet more than a third of their recruitment quotas.

Two anonymous sources said the situation could force Russia to consider a new mobilisation. Officials may present it as a rotation measure for frontline troops, one of the people said, while the other said a draft could be announced as early as the end of this year.

Ukraine's stunning military incursion into Russia's western Kursk region, which has met with little resistance, has underlined the problems facing the Kremlin. Ukrainian forces now control 1,000 square kilometres of Russian territory and the offensive operations are continuing, Alexander Syrsky, commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian armed forces, told President Vladimir Zelensky.

Russia has hundreds of thousands of soldiers on the front lines in eastern and southern Ukraine, where it is facing mounting casualties as fighting has largely stalled. The failure to repel the Ukrainian offensive and regain control of its border has exposed a shortage of defence reserves.

Vladimir Putin ordered the mobilisation of 300,000 troops in September 2022, prompting a surge of war anxiety among Russians and the flight of up to a million people from the country. In an effort to avoid a repeat of that experience, the Kremlin has focused on appeals to patriotism and offers of money to try to provide the 30,000 new soldiers it needs each month just to swell the ranks.

This is prompting the Kremlin to sharply increase payments to federal and regional governments to persuade more people to join the army. The pressure to fill quotas is so intense that rich regions are luring people to poorer ones to sign contracts with them and qualify for bigger bonuses.

The scale of Russian losses and insufficient replacement levels are making it increasingly difficult to sustain the current strategy of moving forward slowly in Ukraine, according to an anonymous source familiar with the situation. There is no longer any talk of seizing Kiev and other cities because Russia has no men, the person said.

The Kremlin has not said how many Russian soldiers have been killed or wounded in the war. Ukraine's Defence Ministry estimates total Russian losses have reached 593,000.