Life After War: Who Will Shape the World Order?
Russia's invasion of Ukraine has revealed the inability of universal international institutions such as the UN and the OSCE to respond effectively to modern threats. In their place, flexible and effective situational coalitions are emerging, forming a new world order where action prevails over consensus and formal legitimacy.
The Gaze reports on this with reference to its article ‘Who Will Lead the Post-War Order: The Fight Between Institutions and Coalitions’.
The author points out that the UN and OSCE have proven ineffective due to the aggressor's veto power and the lack of consensus, which paralyses real decisions on the war in Ukraine.
The IMF and the World Bank demonstrate bureaucratic inertia. At critical moments, it was aid packages from the G7 countries, not these institutions, that provided economic support.
In response to institutional paralysis, formats are emerging that unite the willingness to act. One of them is the Ramstein format (Contact Group on Defense of Ukraine). Initiated by the United States, it brings together more than 50 countries to coordinate military, financial and logistical assistance to Ukraine. Ramstein does not have a rigid structure, but it has a real impact on arms supplies.
There is also the Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF): Led by the United Kingdom, it includes Northern European countries for rapid response to regional threats.
In addition, there is a ‘coalition of the willing,’ a new geostrategy where the ability to act is more important than formal legitimacy.
All these formats are flexible, technologically modern and do not require consensus with aggressors.
The war in Ukraine has shown that the world cannot rely on the institutions created in 1945, as new hybrid threats do not fit into their mandates. This leads to the formation of a ‘network of coalitions’ that operate ‘here and now.’ Ukraine has become not only an object but also a subject of this new order, promoting the idea of a new security architecture through formats such as the Crimean Platform and G7 agreements.
Ukraine is forming effective alliances that are characterised by speed and substance:
- The Lublin Triangle (Ukraine, Poland, Lithuania): Has become an operational format for security and political dialogue, providing significant military and financial assistance (over €400 million in the last year from Poland and Lithuania).
- The Quadriga format (Ukraine, Turkey): A key channel for coordination in the areas of technology, drones and maritime security.
- The Ukraine-Poland-United Kingdom Security Alliance: A basis for operational support and intelligence sharing. The United Kingdom has provided Ukraine with at least £7.8 billion in military aid.
- Security Compact for Ukraine: A multilateral system of bilateral agreements based on the G7 declaration. These agreements provide for long-term military support, joint planning, air defence, intelligence sharing and more. Total security assistance from Canada, Germany and the United Kingdom already exceeds $20 billion, and with other European countries it could reach $25-35 billion.
In 2025, it is clear that ‘everyone with everyone’ no longer works. The post-war world will be post-consensus, defined not by global forums but by horizontal networks of effective players. The crisis of institutions has paradoxically revived effective geopolitics. The new global order is being born in cities such as Kyiv, Warsaw and London, not Geneva or New York. Ukraine has become a platform for creating a new system of coexistence, where those who are ready to act, not just talk, survive.