Negotiations Amid Missile Threat

Today, in Doha, Qatar, negotiations were scheduled between Israel and Hamas regarding a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip and the release of Israeli hostages captured by terrorists on 7 October 2023. Naturally, the talks were to involve mediators—Qatar, the United States, and Egypt. However, behind the scenes, the influences of Iran, Russia, and possibly even China were unmistakably present. The situation appears as though Tehran is pushing the process towards escalation, aiming to alter the terms of the ceasefire agreement in favour of its client—Hamas. Signals are currently pouring out of Iran, suggesting the possibility of a full-scale missile and air attack on Israel within the next few hours or days. It almost seems as if Tehran is merely seeking an excuse to strike Israel, perhaps citing a desire for revenge for the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran two weeks ago.

On 14 August, in a joint public statement, US Ambassador Jack Lew, British Ambassador Simon Walters, and German Ambassador Steffen Seibert urged Israel and Hamas to finally agree on a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip. The ambassadors sternly declared that the window of opportunity is closing, and there may soon be no means to secure the release of the hostages held by terrorists in Gaza following the terrorist attack on 7 October 2023. Specifically, the discussion centred around the release of 115 hostages still in Gaza, in exchange for Palestinian prisoners and guarantees of a ceasefire.

Jack Lew also posted on X (formerly Twitter): "Today, I joined the ambassadors of Germany and the UK in calling for action. It’s time to reach an agreement and bring the hostages home." Their statements, however, hinted that they were not solely concerned with the release of the hostages, as little had fundamentally changed over the past six months. Rather, the ambassadors were demonstrating a determination to advance negotiations, given their concern about the threat of the conflict in Gaza escalating into a major regional war.

Clearly, the ambassadors were not acting on their own initiative; their statements follow the active efforts of US President Joe Biden, who discussed ways to de-escalate tensions in the Middle East and achieve a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip with the leaders of the United Kingdom, Germany, France, and Italy just a few days ago. These talks resulted in a joint statement by these leaders expressing support for the US, Qatari, and Egyptian initiative to reach a ceasefire agreement as quickly as possible. These mediators proposed that Israel and Hamas sit down at the negotiating table on 15 August in Doha, Qatar, to work out this agreement.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has promised that the Israeli delegation will sit down with Hamas for negotiations in Qatar. However, as of the evening of 14 August, it was still unclear whether Hamas would participate, despite the organisation's leaders already being in Doha. Hamas representatives have claimed that the Israeli side’s conditions are constantly being tightened, and military actions in the Gaza Strip are still ongoing.

Nevertheless, the US State Department reports that Qatar has provided assurances that it will persuade Hamas to come to the negotiating table. But is it realistic to expect negotiations when the real patron of Hamas—Iran—does not desire de-escalation?

Simultaneously with the ambassadors’ statement, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas issued a statement about Iran’s readiness to attack Israel, possibly within hours, as revenge for the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh. It’s unclear what authority Abbas has to comment on Tehran’s intentions, but Turkey’s Anadolu Agency quoted the Palestinian leader in an interview he gave to Russia’s state news agency TASS: "A decision could be made in the next few days or even in the next few hours."

Abbas noted that "intense dialogue between many countries" is underway, but the focus of this dialogue is not on a ceasefire and the release of hostages. According to the Palestinian leader, the main issue is the scale of Iran’s response to Haniyeh’s death. Abbas also complained that Washington’s pressure on the parties involved in the negotiations could push the situation towards further escalation.

It appears that Tehran is sending orders "not to agree," and this information, for more controlled dissemination, is being relayed through a close partner of Iran—Russia. After all, TASS is a well-known official Russian news agency.

NATO countries have made it clear that these connections and interactions are not a surprise to them. In early July 2024, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, perhaps for the first time, made it explicitly clear: "...the war in Ukraine shows how closely Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran are connected." In fact, this connection seems like a ready-made "axis of evil," including these four countries. At that time, Stoltenberg named China as the main source of Russia's aggressive war against Ukraine. And, of course, the close relationship between Tehran and Moscow hardly needs mentioning: there is a furious exchange of weapons and technology between them.

As of midday on 15 August, it was known that Iran is ready to attack Israel at any moment. Meanwhile, the US is increasing its military presence in the region and sending clear signals to Tehran about the absolute unacceptability of such an attack. The world is truly on the brink of a major regional conflict, and it seems that the figurative keys to the Iranian General Staff are not in Tehran, but somewhere closer to Moscow or Beijing.

This scenario is somewhat contradictory, given that the new Hamas leader, Yahya Sinwar, recently elected to replace the slain Haniyeh, publicly announced this week his desire for negotiations and even his willingness to agree to a ceasefire.