Provocations with a Purpose: Hungary’s Strategy to Derail Ukraine’s European Path
Hungary, despite being a member of both the EU and NATO, is increasingly behaving like a Trojan horse for Russia within European politics. Recently, tensions between Ukraine and Hungary have escalated significantly, raising serious concerns about the direction of their relations.
A series of recent events — including the exposure of a Hungarian military intelligence network operating in Ukraine, the deportation of Ukrainian diplomats from Hungary, the Hungarian government’s support for a referendum on Ukraine’s EU accession, and an intensified anti-Ukrainian information campaign — all point to a coordinated pattern. These actions form part of a broader hybrid strategy aimed at obstructing Ukraine’s European integration, with Budapest aligning itself with Kremlin interests in the process.
Diplomatic Aggravation: Budapest is Kyiv's Main Opponent in the EU
In May 2025, the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) for the first time in history exposed an agent network of Hungarian military intelligence. The center of the spies' activities was Ukrainian Zakarpattia, a region that Budapest has long considered a zone of its cultural and political influence. According to the SBU, the detainee was a former military officer from Berehove district. The Hungarian curators activated him in the fall of 2024 to collect information on the location of S-300 anti-aircraft missile systems, the movement of military convoys, losses of the Armed Forces, and other information from the front.
This operation not only demonstrates the professionalism of Ukrainian counterintelligence, but also undermines the myth that Budapest's actions are limited to loud statements. In fact, Hungary is engaged in direct military and subversive actions that pose a threat to Ukraine's national security.
Over the past year, Hungary has repeatedly taken hostile steps on the diplomatic front. Ukrainian diplomats have been deported, their presence in Budapest has been severely restricted, and any attempts to establish cooperation have been ignored. Such a policy is not just Orban's personal desire; it is part of a broader strategy to delegitimize Ukraine in the eyes of European institutions.
The key goal is to turn Kyiv into an undesirable partner, to present it as a source of instability, internal problems, and “threats to the Hungarian minority,” and, as a result, to justify the slowdown in European integration.
Referendum Under the Kremlin's Dictation?
The anti-Ukrainian efforts of the Hungarian authorities culminated in the announced “referendum” on Ukraine's accession to the EU. The Hungarian government directly calls on citizens to vote against it. According to a number of sources, the ballots are accompanied by anti-Ukrainian propaganda, including fakes about threats from Ukraine to the Hungarian economy, demographics, and security.
“After Ukraine's accession, millions of Ukrainian workers will flood the EU, which will cause Hungarians' wages to fall,” reads the leaflet sent with the referendum ballots.
The very fact of such a “poll” is a brutal political farce designed to legitimize the Hungarian government's position as the “will of the people.” However, the screen of democratic procedure hides political sabotage: no other EU country initiates such referendums on the membership of another state. This is a precedent imposed by Budapest to create a blocking tool.
The launch of the referendum was accompanied by a massive information campaign in Hungary. State media close to the Orban regime spread narratives that echoed those of the Kremlin: Ukraine is a “failed state” that allegedly “oppresses national minorities,” “threatens peace in Europe,” and “sucks up EU resources.”
The Democracy Institute's analysis notes that Orban's regime is deliberately copying Putin's propaganda tools and models, in particular through centralized media management, simulated pluralism, and the cultivation of an “external enemy” (Ukraine or Brussels) as a factor in voter mobilization.
As noted in an article by Andrea Schmidt and Viktor Glied in the Eastern Journal of European Studies (2024), Hungary has become an ideological transit zone where the values of liberal democracy and authoritarianism collide. In this conflict, Orban relies on anti-Western rhetoric, which allows him to remain in the EU's institutional shell but act against its values.
That is why Budapest relies not only on direct diplomatic instruments but also on soft power, such as information attacks, referendums, appeals to the Hungarian minority in Ukraine, and the formation of an alternative reality in the minds of its citizens.
In May 2025, the Hungarian opposition released an audio recording in which Hungarian Defense Minister Krisztóf Szalai-Bobrovnitsky declares the rejection of the “peace mentality” and the transition to “phase zero on the road to war.” The opposition accuses the government of lying and preparing the country for a military conflict, despite public statements about peace.
In response to the publication, Salai-Bobrovnitsky did not deny the authenticity of the recording. Orban's chief of staff, Gergely Gulyás, also commented on the situation, calling the recording “not out of the ordinary.” He emphasized that in the face of an immediate threat of war, the words of the defense minister are “obvious and correct.”
Budapest's Provocations as a Tool to Systematically Block Ukraine's European Integration
The set of events described above – espionage, diplomatic confrontations, anti-Ukrainian referendums, information campaigns, and intra-European sabotage – is not a series of random or emotional reactions. Rather, these are elements of a long-term hybrid strategy that Budapest has been pursuing for years, often in coordination with the Kremlin or in parallel with it as part of a “tandem movement.”
This strategy aims to block Ukraine’s accession to the European Union by portraying it as a “problematic neighbor” that allegedly destabilizes the region, violates minority rights, and irritates other EU members. It also seeks to undermine international trust in Ukraine by fueling diplomatic disputes, promoting anti-Ukrainian narratives through information campaigns, and encouraging public skepticism via referendums.
At the same time, Hungary’s government uses these external confrontations to consolidate power at home. By presenting Ukraine, Brussels, and even the United States as “external enemies,” it justifies growing authoritarianism and militarization.
Ultimately, this approach supports Budapest’s ambition to reshape Europe’s geopolitical architecture. Under the guise of “national sovereignty,” Hungary is attempting to position itself as a bridge between Russia and the West, while in reality serving Moscow’s strategic interests.
If earlier Hungary was mainly engaged in verbal attacks – Orban's speeches, blocking sanctions, provocations on the topic of “Transcarpathian Hungarians” – now we are seeing an escalation on a practical level. The espionage uncovered by the SBU is evidence that Budapest is not only destructive, but deliberately engages in hostile activities on the territory of Ukraine. In turn, the launch of the referendum on Ukraine's membership in the EU is an attempt to involve Hungarian society in the campaign against Ukraine.
Hungary, in fact, acts as an institutional destroyer within the EU, using access to common mechanisms as leverage. Budapest is simultaneously parasitizing on the EU's institutional advantages and undermining its very ability to act as a union.
In this context, several important conclusions emerge. Ukraine’s path toward European integration is being threatened not only by Russia, but also by certain institutional actors within the EU itself — first and foremost, Hungary. Budapest’s actions and rhetoric should no longer be interpreted as isolated diplomatic gestures; they are part of a broader, hybrid campaign aimed at undermining Ukraine's sovereignty and future within the European community.
Accordingly, Ukraine’s foreign policy must evolve to address not just Russian aggression, but also obstructionism from within the EU. This requires the formation of an “anti-blockade front” — a coordinated effort involving diplomatic outreach, strategic communications, and legal tools to counter Hungary’s disruptive behavior.
Moreover, the question of Hungary’s international responsibility must be raised with greater urgency. Its subversive activities — including espionage, propaganda efforts, and diplomatic provocations — demand a firm response through appropriate international mechanisms.
Petro Oleshchuk, political scientist, Ph.D, expert at the United Ukraine Think Tank