Russian Energy Weapon: Lessons from Gas Crises for Europe
Russia’s energy weapon has inflicted hundreds of billions in economic losses on Europe, proving that cheap resources from an authoritarian regime come with a hidden cost
Since the dawn of the 21st century, the Kremlin has viewed energy not merely as an economic resource but as a tool of political influence. For decades, the European Union sourced over a third of its gas and oil from Russia, considering this dependency mutually beneficial. In reality, it became the very lever Moscow wielded against Brussels after 2022. The gas weapon proved no less destructive than artillery shells: sharp price spikes, blackmail through supply volumes, and threats of complete cutoffs. Europe cannot afford to ignore these lessons, as energy has revealed just how vulnerable security policies can be when built on the illusion of “cheap resources.”
Gas Remains a Political Lever for the Kremlin
The first major gas crisis erupted in 2006 when Moscow shut off the valve to Ukraine, and consequently to parts of the EU. Similar scenarios recurred in 2009, 2014, and, in their most dramatic form, in 2021–2022. At that time, Gazprom deliberately reduced supplies below contractual levels, triggering shortages and price surges on European hubs. By early 2022, Germany’s dependence on Russian gas stood at around 55%, while Austria’s exceeded 80%. These figures turned energy into a battlefield of geopolitical blackmail: the more Europe supported Kyiv, the tighter Moscow turned the valve.
The Kremlin’s energy policy has always had a dual purpose: securing foreign currency for its budget and creating a political “cost” for Europe in any conflict with Russia. This logic allowed Moscow to evade harsh sanctions for decades – until the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Europe’s Economic Losses Were as Devastating as Russian Missiles
The gas crises of 2021–2022 led to prices on European TTF hubs soaring above €300 per megawatt-hour at their peak – ten times higher than the 2019 average. This forced European industries – from chemical giants in Germany to metallurgical plants in Italy – to halt or scale back production. In 2022, the EU economy lost an estimated €200 to €300 billion due to the energy shock.
This was the clearest proof that reliance on a single supplier creates not only geopolitical but also direct economic risks. The Kremlin gained the ability to influence Europe’s competitiveness and even its domestic political stability – rising energy prices became a key driver of protest movements in France, the Czech Republic, and other countries.
Why Abandoning Russian Resources Must Be Irreversible
Despite significant reductions in imports after 2022, some EU countries continued to purchase Russian LNG in 2023–2024, allowing Moscow to earn billions from exports. This demonstrates that political will alone is insufficient. Europe must make an irreversible decision – completely abandoning Russian resources, not only from gas pipelines but also from tankers in its ports. Otherwise, the blackmail will persist in new forms.
Alternatives already exist. The United States has doubled its LNG exports to Europe over the past three years, Norway has increased supplies by nearly 20%, and Algeria and Qatar are actively expanding their markets. Meanwhile, Ukraine offers its own role – as a transit country and a potential producer of “green hydrogen,” which could become part of a new European energy system.
Alternative Options Must Be Deployed Now
The lesson of the gas crises lies in a simple truth: security policies cannot be built on dependence on an authoritarian regime. Europe must not only talk about diversification but invest in new LNG terminals, expanded pipelines from Norway, and renewable energy sources. Every delay plays into Moscow’s hands: while Europe seeks compromises, the Kremlin maintains foreign currency reserves for warand influence over politics through prices.
Now, with EU gas storages full and prices stabilized, is the ideal moment to complete the process. Building energy autonomy must become part of a broader collective defense strategy. For Russia’s energy weapon is no less dangerous than “Kalibr” or “Iskander” missiles.
Gas Crises Are a Warning Signal That Cannot Be Ignored
Europe has already paid a steep price for its dependence on Russian resources – economically, politically, and strategically. The Kremlin has used gas as a weapon and will continue to do so for as long as it can. The conclusion is clear: the EU’s future security depends on how quickly and decisively it builds a new energy architecture. Ukraine can be part of this process, not only as a victim of blackmail but as a partner in creating an independent European energy system.
Bohdan Popov, Head of Digital at the United Ukraine Think Tank, communications specialist and public figure