Putin Plays His Trump Card
On the morning of August 26, Russian missiles targeted the Kyiv Hydroelectric Power Plant on the Dnipro River, just upstream from Kyiv. This was another massive attack on Ukraine's energy sector and critical infrastructure. A major technological disaster and a dam breach were avoided only due to the effective work of Ukrainian air defence systems. Russian missiles also targeted the main gas pipeline system, which still supplies gas to Central Europe. At the same time, Ukrainian forces are fiercely resisting the Russian offensive in the Donetsk region of Ukraine and are advancing in the Kursk region of Russia. Putin is raising the stakes; Russian military activity has not been this intense since the winter of 2023. Additionally, his ally, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, has become more active. The Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs even had to appeal to the Belarusian Armed Forces to withdraw their troops from the border area, where they were deployed under the pretext of field exercises. All this is happening just three days after Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Kyiv. According to some leaks, he brought proposals from Putin regarding the conditions for ceasing hostilities, which were unacceptable to Ukrainians.
On the evening of August 25, the Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a very stern appeal to the Belarusian Armed Forces: "According to the intelligence services of Ukraine, the armed forces of the Republic of Belarus, under the guise of exercises, are concentrating a significant number of personnel, including Special Operations Forces, weapons, and military equipment, including tanks, artillery, multiple launch rocket systems, air defence systems, and engineering equipment, in the Gomel region near Ukraine's northern borders. The presence of mercenaries from the former Wagner PMC has also been recorded." This statement caused significant discussion in Kyiv but not for long, as the next morning, Ukraine was attacked by more than 200 aerial assault vehicles, including drones, ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and even hypersonic missiles.
A constant threat has loomed over the Ukrainian capital since February 2022, when Russian troops crossed the Belarusian border. However, the Russians only managed to hold their positions near Kyiv for just under a month and a half. After regaining control of the Ukrainian-Belarusian border, the Ukrainian army actively fortified the nearly 1,100-kilometre-long strip. The eastern part of the border, along Ukraine's Zhytomyr, Kyiv, and Chernihiv regions, borders the Gomel region of Belarus. This area was the scene of battles in the spring of 2022. Now, as declared in the Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs’ statement, Belarusian troops are amassed in the Gomel region.
In 2022, Russian forces attempted to encircle Kyiv from the west by crossing two strategic highways at the border between the Kyiv and Zhytomyr regions. Therefore, Kyiv's reaction to the build-up of Belarusian troops near the northern border is entirely understandable. The tensions did not extend to the more western region of Belarus, the Brest region. Although in this zone, Ukraine is also forced to maintain some forces, as an invasion from there into the Volyn and Rivne regions could cross strategic railways and highways that connect Ukraine with Poland. The Rivne region is home to such an important facility as the Rivne Nuclear Power Plant. Transit oil pipelines and gas pipelines, which still supply oil and gas from Russia to Central Europe, pass through these regions.
Photo: Damage to the Kyiv Hydroelectric Power Plant from Russian missiles. Source: Screenshot of video from Real Kyiv.
Greetings from the Kremlin
The largest air attack by Russian forces against Ukraine prior to 26 August occurred on the night of 28-29 December 2023. In total, the Russians used more than 120 missiles, including hypersonic, cruise, ballistic, and aeroballistic missiles, as well as 36 Shahed-type unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). However, the attack on the night of 25-26 August surpassed that, with updated data indicating that the Russians deployed 109 UAVs and 127 missiles of various types and bases—land, sea, and air. The attack lasted nearly 10 hours. Ukrainian air defence systems managed to destroy 201 aerial targets out of 236 airborne attack assets: 102 missiles and 99 attack UAVs. Several UAVs fell within Ukraine's territory, two crossed into the Republic of Belarus, and one crossed into Poland. The Polish Air Force tracked this target but was unable to shoot it down due to weather conditions, as reported.
In nearly all regions of Ukraine, Russian missiles and drones aimed to hit energy facilities and other critical infrastructure. This included attacks on above-ground gas pipeline facilities and underground gas storage facilities in Lviv and other western regions of Ukraine. Missiles also targeted the Kyiv Hydroelectric Power Plant, raising serious concerns about potential damage to the dam, which could lead to water from the Kyiv Reservoir flooding the left bank of the Ukrainian capital, home to at least two million people.
Although some equipment at the Kyiv Hydroelectric Power Plant was damaged, significant destruction was avoided. By the end of 26 August, vehicle traffic on the road across the dam had been restored, and electricity supply was resumed. Nationwide, during the air attack, emergency restrictions on electricity supply were implemented due to damage and to prevent equipment damage in the event of unexpected load shedding. However, by the end of the day, the operation of the energy system had been restored.
The following night, the Russians launched another combined attack on Ukraine using strike drones, ballistic, cruise, and aeroballistic missiles. As of the time of this article’s publication, the full scale of the attack on the night of 26 to 27 August had not yet been disclosed, and an air raid alert was still in effect over approximately half of the country.
As always, Ukrainian officials do not disclose the scale and specific locations of the damage to avoid making it easier for the Russians to prepare for future attacks. It is worth noting that since March 2024, Russian forces have been deliberately attempting to destroy Ukraine's energy system. In total, from March to May, during 11 nights of massive shelling, the Russians used 367 missiles of various types and 282 Shahed-type kamikaze drones.
However, in July and the first half of August, the frequency of strikes on such targets somewhat decreased. It is likely that the Russians were stockpiling missiles and drones and conducting reconnaissance of targets. Now, apparently aiming to worsen the condition of Ukraine's energy system ahead of the cold season, these strikes are resuming.
Prior to the 26 August strike, rumours were spreading in Western media about a possible indirect agreement for Russia to cease attacks on Ukraine’s energy sector in exchange for Ukraine halting strikes on Russian oil export infrastructure. These negotiations were allegedly set to begin covertly in Doha, Qatar, with Qatari mediators in August. However, according to The Washington Post on 17 August, this prospect was cancelled due to Ukraine's attack on Russia’s Kursk region, which began on 6 August.
Of course, these negotiations are an extremely unlikely prospect, as Putin has repeatedly destroyed trust in himself in similar situations. For example, in the summer of 2023, he unilaterally ended the so-called Black Sea Grain Initiative, which was brokered by the UN and Turkey. The agreement included guarantees from Russia regarding Ukrainian agricultural exports through Ukraine's Black Sea ports. As a result, Ukrainian armed forces were forced to actively attack the Russian navy using unmanned boats, aerial drones, and missiles, ultimately leading to the resumption of maritime shipments from Ukrainian ports.
Photo: The Russians used cluster munitions to shell civilian objects. Pictured is a cluster element found in the shelling zone, Zhytomyr region, Ukraine. Source: Zhytomyr Info.
Leverage between Kursk and Donbas
All of this is happening against the backdrop of intense fighting in the western part of the Donetsk region, near the approaches to the city of Pokrovsk, which is only about 40 kilometres from the border between the Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk regions of Ukraine. For Putin, reaching the administrative borders of the Donetsk region is a fixed idea, much like gaining full control over the Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions, which he forced his deputies in the State Duma (parliament) of Russia to include in the text of the country's constitution in 2022.
Despite massive losses in personnel and equipment, Russian forces are advancing in western Donbas. This creates significant risks for the Ukrainian military and neighbouring regions. At the same time, fighting is ongoing to the north and northeast of Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city, with a population of approximately one and a half million people. The Russians began their offensive on Kharkiv in May, but it stalled. Currently, positional battles are taking place there, with neither side making significant progress.
In early August, Ukrainian forces attacked the Kursk region of Russia, from which constant shelling of Ukraine's border Sumy region was taking place. The Ukrainian side managed to prepare this operation in deep secrecy. Even three weeks after its start, neither foreign journalists nor the Russia military could confidently outline the objective of this offensive. The Ukrainian side has publicly stated only a desire to push Russian forces back from the border, through which the Russians terrorised Ukrainian border towns with constant shelling and sabotage group raids.
As of the morning of 27 August, the situation in the Kursk region remains shrouded in secrecy. The American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported in its 25 August briefing about the movement of some Russian military units to the Kursk region from near the city of Chasiv Yar (Donetsk region), as well as from the Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia regions.
However, no significant redeployment of Russian troops from Ukraine to the Kursk region has been observed so far, although many experts believe this to be the aim of the offensive in the Kursk region. Currently, Ukrainian positions are about 30 kilometres from the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant and 50 kilometres from the city of Kursk. On their western flank in the Kursk region, Ukrainian forces have to keep an eye on the Belarusian Gomel region, where Belarusian autocratic president Alexander Lukashenko is currently flexing his military muscles.