The Kursk Gambit

Ukraine’s partners are gradually moving from cautious comments to openly endorsing Ukraine's offensive in the Kursk region (Russia), which borders the Sumy region of Ukraine. Foreign journalists have begun to be allowed into the combat zone on Russian territory, but the exact scale and direction of the offensive remain unclear. The Ukrainian General Staff is making full use of the fog of war. Another interesting consequence is that Ukraine's partners are slowly shedding their fear of further escalation. This could push the war in Ukraine towards peace more quickly than attempts to appease the aggressor.

On 13 August, during a trip to New Orleans, USA, President Joe Biden publicly commented for the first time on the Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk region (Russia). "This creates a real dilemma for Putin," he told reporters. Biden also mentioned that he has been receiving updates every four to five hours over the past six to eight days about Ukraine's actions in that region.

Amid Heavy Fighting

Amid the unexpected offensive, heavy fighting continues in Ukraine’s Donetsk region, where the Russians are relentlessly pressing forward despite suffering significant losses in personnel and equipment. The Donetsk direction seems to be an obsession for Vladimir Putin, as he trapped himself by ordering his puppet parliament in 2022 to include the Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions in the Russian Federation's constitution. Most of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions, along with their regional capitals, remain under Ukrainian control. A significant part of Donetsk region is also under Ukrainian control.

In their calls for negotiations, Putin and his officials usually emphasise that these talks must consider “what is happening on the ground.” In other words, they already regard the occupied territories as fully Russian, including the entire regions within their administrative borders. Naturally, Kyiv strongly disagrees with this. Ukraine’s position is the restoration of its territorial integrity within the 1991 borders, which includes the de-occupation of Crimea, annexed by Russia in 2014.

Putin perceives events in the Kursk region as a so-called "provocation" and has even declared a counter-terrorism operation (CTO) in the region. In essence, the Kremlin fears calling this a war. In fact, Putin also avoids this term for his full-scale invasion, referring to it instead as a “special military operation” (SMO). Additionally, Putin attempts to convey through his controlled media that Ukraine is attacking the Russian region to secure better positions for future peace talks.

Kyiv has not yet publicly outlined its intentions regarding the offensive in the Kursk region. However, on 12 August, in his regular video address, Volodymyr Zelenskyy publicly acknowledged for the first time that this was an attack by the Ukrainian Armed Forces, stating that it was necessary because the Russians had been using the Kursk region to constantly shell the Sumy region (Ukraine). "I held a meeting of the Staff. There was a report from Commander Syrskyi on the front and all key defence directions, as well as on the operation in the Kursk region—General Syrskyi reported that about 1,000 square kilometres in the Kursk region are under control. These are, in particular, areas from which the Russian army launched strikes on our Sumy region," said the Ukrainian president.

According to Zelenskyy, since 1 June alone, the Russians have carried out nearly 2,100 shelling attacks on the Sumy region. This region was occupied by the Russians in February-March 2022 but was quickly liberated by Ukrainian forces. After that, the Ukrainian border was restored, but regular shelling from the Russian side began. The Russians used the full range of weapons to attack Ukrainian territory—mortars, artillery, multiple launch rocket systems, ballistic and cruise missiles, strike drones, and glide bombs. "Therefore, our operations are purely a matter of security for Ukraine, liberating the border areas from Russian military presence," Zelenskyy remarked in his address.

This statement was broadcast after a meeting between the Ukrainian president and two U.S. senators—Richard Blumenthal (Democrat) and Lindsey Graham (Republican). These are highly influential members of the upper house of the U.S. Congress and veterans of the U.S. Army. On 12 August, they met with both Volodymyr Zelenskyy and the head of the Ukrainian government, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal.

While Shmyhal discussed aid for Ukraine’s recovery, particularly in the energy sector, Zelenskyy emphasised the importance of receiving military-technical assistance from partners, including air defence systems and missiles. "We thank the entire American people, President Biden, both houses of Congress, and both parties for their support. We are grateful that you have once again during this war sent us an important signal—you support Ukraine and the Ukrainian people," said Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

Important to Note

It’s important to note that this meeting of influential senators, as representatives of both parties, took place after the circumstances of the Ukrainian offensive became somewhat clearer. By then, it was already understood that Ukrainian forces had advanced several dozen kilometres and were controlling several dozen settlements over an area of approximately 1,000 square kilometres.

What was the senators’ reaction to the events they observed from Kyiv?

"What do I think about Kursk? Bold, brilliant, beautiful. Keep it up. Putin started this, kick his ass," said Lindsey Graham during a briefing in Kyiv on 12 August.

"Ukraine’s cross-border attack is good news—and potential big news. Even if Russia pushes back, it portends and previews a possible Ukrainian offensive assault—and with major impact if the U.S. and NATO continue support," wrote Senator Richard Blumenthal on X (formerly Twitter). He accompanied his tweet with a link to a New York Times article from 10 August titled "Russia Pushes Back at Ukraine’s Cross-Border Assault, but Kyiv Presses On."

Another article was published in this outlet on 12 August—"At a Russian Border Post, Scenes of Ruin After Ukraine’s Surprise Attack." This article is notable for repeating Putin's hypothesis and the assumption that Kyiv’s offensive in the Kursk region is intended to draw Russian forces away from the Donetsk region: "The offensive is intended to force Russia to divert troops from a grinding fight in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region, which has not happened so far, and to gain leverage for peace talks, though none are scheduled."

This media background is worth considering as it shapes the perception of events that are not readily accessible to journalists. For understandable reasons, the NYT reporters were only able to see the Sudzha border checkpoint and did not venture further into Russian territory.

For now, the situation resembles desperate raiding actions by Ukrainian assault groups deep within Russian territory. They moved so quickly to take control of the gas hub in Sudzha near the border that the flow of gas through transit pipelines to Western Europe was not even interrupted. They are seizing control of logistical routes, coordinating American HIMARS strikes on Russian military convoys, and have already sent several hundred Russian prisoners to the rear.

The further course of events remains unclear and will largely depend on Ukraine's ability to destroy Russian forces before they make contact with the attacking units. These capabilities are still not fully operational. Kyiv lacks the necessary permissions to use long-range Western weaponry against military targets on Russian territory. Such permissions have not yet been granted, although in May, Joe Biden announced that he did not object to strikes on launch sites from which the Russians were shelling the city of Kharkiv, home to 1.5 million people. This second-largest Ukrainian city is located just 30 kilometres from the Russian border and approximately 150 kilometres southeast of the point where Ukrainian forces crossed the border to attack in the Kursk region.

For this reason, Senators Blumenthal and Graham, during their visit to Kyiv, called on the U.S. administration to lift restrictions on Ukraine’s use of weapons supplied by Washington.