Lightning Visits with a Bitter Aftertaste
Two whirlwind visits by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to Poland and Ukraine took place a month and a half after his visit to Moscow. These are the first trips by a high-ranking Indian representative to these countries in decades. He brought entirely different messages to Warsaw and Kyiv. He certainly spoke to Ukrainian leaders about peace, but it seems more likely that he conveyed the position of Moscow rather than advocating for a just resolution to Russia's aggressive war against Ukraine. Why is this? Probably because India needs cheap Russian raw materials more than it needs stability in Europe.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit to Ukraine took place on a significant day for both countries. On 23 August, India celebrated National Space Day for the first time, marking the landing of the Chandrayaan-3 rover on the Moon. On the same day, Ukraine celebrated Flag Day, which, since 2014, has been observed amid the country's resistance to Russia's aggressive war. In the last three years, this celebration has occurred against the backdrop of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
India’s Own Interests
India’s stance on Russia’s war in Ukraine is quite unfriendly towards Kyiv. Firstly, India buys large quantities of oil from Russia at market prices, which helps the Kremlin evade the sanctions imposed by the G7. As part of this trade, India also refines Russian oil into petroleum products, which are not subject to these sanctions. Therefore, India is effectively participating in financing Russia's war in Ukraine.
Secondly, Indian companies supply dual-use goods to Russia, which are utilised by the Russian military-industrial complex to produce weapons that kill Ukrainians. However, foreign policy is a pragmatic and cynical affair, and India is too large a country in terms of population and economic scale for Kyiv to sharply react to Delhi's position.
Narendra Modi’s visit to Moscow took place on 8 July, the same day Russian forces struck Ukraine's largest children's hospital in central Kyiv with a missile. “Today in Ukraine, as a result of a brutal Russian missile strike, 37 people were killed, including three children, and 170 were wounded, including 13 children. A Russian missile hit Ukraine’s largest children’s hospital, targeting children with cancer. Many were buried under the rubble. It is deeply disappointing and a devastating blow to peaceful efforts to see the leader of the world’s largest democracy embracing the bloodiest criminal in Moscow on such a day,” commented Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on X (formerly Twitter) about the visit. Yet, on 23 August, he met with Modi in Kyiv to seek even the smallest chance of achieving a just peace.
Photo: Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk also discussed cooperation in the defence industry with Narendra Modi. Source: Narendra Modi X (formerly Twitter)
Warsaw’s Cautious Reception
Poland appears to clearly understand that India is closer to the Kremlin with its autocracy than to the democratic world. India is also a cornerstone of the BRICS group, which is effectively led by autocratic Beijing and Moscow. Isn't the main function of BRICS to create a counterbalance to the G7 group, which unites the world's largest democracies? However, Warsaw does not show dissatisfaction with India's close ties to its obvious adversary—Russia.
On the contrary, during the visit of the Indian Prime Minister to Poland, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk expressed a desire to deepen cooperation with India in the defence industry. On one hand, this opens up interesting opportunities for Polish businesses. On the other hand, Warsaw is trying to encourage New Delhi to abandon Russian suppliers more quickly amid India's military modernisation programme.
In particular, Polish defence companies are quite capable of replacing Russian contractors in the programmes for the modernisation of Russian T-72 tanks, aircraft, and other weapons. According to data provided by the Indian Embassy, the total turnover of bilateral trade increased from $1.95 billion to $5.72 billion between 2013 and 2023. During this period, Indian exports dominated trade between the countries. Overall, Polish exports for 2023 were approximately $390 billion, while imports were about $375 billion.
At the same time, Modi in Warsaw was keen to signal that India would prefer to play a role as a mediator in peace negotiations between Kyiv and Moscow, as well as between Israel and the groups Hamas and Hezbollah, and their partners. "India firmly believes that no problem can be solved on the battlefield," Modi said in Warsaw. "We support dialogue and diplomacy for the swift restoration of peace," he added. Tusk spoke favourably about India's role, but it seemed more like protocol statements of respect for the world’s largest country. India has now surpassed China in terms of population, although it still significantly lags in economic scale.
Photo: Polish President Andrzej Duda discussed enhancing the level of partnership between the countries with Narendra Modi. Source: Narendra Modi X (formerly Twitter)
The meeting between Modi and Polish President Andrzej Duda was more ceremonial. For instance, Indian Ministry of External Affairs spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal wrote on X (formerly Twitter) after the talks at the Belweder Palace that "…the leaders of both countries discussed bilateral relations and ways to take them to a new level. Regional and global issues were also touched upon during the discussions." Gradually, the matter is moving towards the announcement of a strategic partnership between the countries, but it will likely be challenging to achieve this against the backdrop of demonstratively close relations between Moscow and New Delhi and Moscow's threats towards Warsaw. Let us recall that in October 2002, during Vladimir Putin’s visit to India, the "Declaration on the Indian-Russian Strategic Partnership" was signed.
Kyiv Negotiations
It seems that a preliminary agreement for a visit to Kyiv was reached in June after Narendra Modi held talks with Zelenskyy on the sidelines of the G7 summit in Apulia, Italy. At that time, Modi informed the Ukrainian president that India would continue to do everything possible to support a peaceful resolution to the Ukrainian conflict and that the path to peace lies through "dialogue and diplomacy." Zelenskyy invited Modi to visit Ukraine. Modi's visit to Moscow, amid the barbaric shelling of a children's hospital in Kyiv, did not derail the plans for the Indian Prime Minister's trip to Ukraine.
Photo: On the morning of 23 August, Narendra Modi had his first meeting on Ukrainian soil with members of the large Indian community, who remain in Ukraine despite the dangers of war. Source: Narendra Modi X (formerly Twitter)
Narendra Modi's visit to Kyiv began with a meeting with members of the Indian community and a tribute to Mahatma Gandhi, whose statue is located in the 'Oasis of Peace' area in the historic Botanical Garden in the centre of the Ukrainian capital. After this, Narendra Modi and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy paid tribute at the Martyrologist exposition on children in Kyiv. "The conflict is especially devastating for small children. My heart goes out to the families of the children who have lost their lives, and I pray that they find the strength to overcome their grief," Modi wrote on X (formerly Twitter) following the event.
It appears that viewing the Martyrologist Exposition was intended to give the high-ranking guest a realistic understanding of the war being waged by Russia in Ukraine. Subsequent reports on the content of the negotiations between Modi and Zelenskyy indicate that the Ukrainian president steered these talks towards discussing a truly sustainable and just peace in Europe.
The outcomes of the visit? There are some, but they are not particularly groundbreaking. Ukraine and India have agreed on cooperation in the medical, agricultural, humanitarian, and cultural fields. According to Volodymyr Zelenskyy, a joint statement has also been prepared "on building a strategic partnership between our countries, trade between our countries, and military-technical cooperation... All of this needs to be strengthened."
However, no concrete proposals for achieving a just peace were announced. Instead, Narendra Modi expressed his wishes for a diplomatic path to such a peace: "We have steadfastly stayed away from war, but this has never meant that we were merely indifferent observers. We have never been neutral, and we have had a side from day one - our side has been peace... Therefore, coming to the land of Ukraine, I came with a message of peace."
Photo: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy expressed hope for India's participation in the joint communiqué of the inaugural Peace Summit, which took place in Switzerland in June, but India has not yet articulated any detailed intentions about this. Source: president.gov.ua
Modi then added two statements that, considering Moscow's previously announced position, seem somewhat contradictory. The first statement emphasises the importance of territorial integrity: "And I want to say to you and to the whole world that this is our conviction and our commitment, and we say this very loudly and clearly - that we support respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity. This is of paramount importance to us."
However, the second statement effectively contradicts the first, as the use of the word "crisis" places the aggressor and the victim of aggression on the same level: "... Both sides will have to sit together and find ways out of this crisis." Why does this phrasing seem to contradict the idea of territorial integrity? Because Moscow regularly declares that a precondition for negotiations is the retention of the occupied Ukrainian territories, which, incidentally, are already mentioned in the Russian constitution.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy expressed hope for India's participation in the joint communiqué of the inaugural Peace Summit, which took place in Switzerland in June. However, India has not yet articulated any detailed intentions about this, which also sheds some light on Narendra Modi's proposals for a path to peace.